Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[charles clore] 15/10/2018 10:04

space - I bought first thing at just over 100p. I think we could see a quick rise to 130p, consolidation and then on to the moon, now that it looks like they have taken the brakes off precious metals.

[spacedust] 15/10/2018 09:58

Cc how long will it remain on your watchlist of buy? Price is poised for 140p when is your entry point?

[edjge2] 15/10/2018 09:21

CC have a look at pog no one wants, busted miner big debts but rising gold price should dissolve and pox plant to speed production later for gold's zenith.
Got some at 5.2.

[charles clore] 15/10/2018 08:23

With PMs racing away and the insane leverage offered by gold miners this is on my buy list today.

[mattboxy] 15/10/2018 08:04

Ok raid probably is the wrong word and dipping into our reserves would be a better phrase. I get your logic about a special dividend showing confidence in prospects for 2019 and I'm trying to remember when they paid the first large dividend if that too was over 100% FCF and was special.

[edjge2] 15/10/2018 07:59

Gold in take off modeso I CEY this will complete its W and more. Time for smily faces, enjoy.

[casual47] 15/10/2018 00:13

Meanwhile...gold price is holding up well....might even break 1220$/oz before the open.

[casual47] 15/10/2018 00:08

But really.....that money belongs to the shareholders. Centamin really should provide a pretty solid reason for hoarding so much cash. I can understand a war chest for imminent M&A activity. I can understand capex reserve to build a mine to go into production at their other assets. But none of these are actually relevant right now (or next year or two). So why are they keeping all that cash? Why 250-300m? Why not 50-100m?

Cash not being used is dead money. It does not grow the business.

[casual47] 14/10/2018 23:43

Why would it be a "raid"?

There is nothing written anywhere with regards to how much "savings" cash a company needs to hold. I think most companies don't even have "savings", as profits get reinvested to grow the business or returned to the shareholders, so they usually just have net debt.

Centamin has a policy to keep between 250-300m cash reserves. I believe that policy is rather arbitrary but let's run with it: by leaving 250m cash instead of 300m it is keeping to its own policy.

If management can present it as a "special dividend" based on q1 2019 being in line with their guidance and the expectation that they will make lots of money then that's a sign of confidence and strength. So yes, the market would love it.

A significant reduction in divi would be a sign of weakness.

[mattboxy] 14/10/2018 22:51

Ok so let's ask the question would the market rather see A- 100% of FCF distributed as a dividend but a lower dividend than recent years. All reserves maintained at high level ($300m)B- 100% of FCF plus some cash reserves used to bolster the dividend giving a similar dividend to recent years but requiring a raid on the reserves to achieve it? I'll take the one that the market likes the most, but which one is it?

[spacedust] 14/10/2018 22:06

ftse will fall to below 6500 now that saudi will exert their own sanctions. Oil and gold to spike......

[casual47] 14/10/2018 17:13

Explain how keeping 250m cash instead of 300m cash will harm Centamin in any way.

[kennyp52] 14/10/2018 16:06

Cash is king in business . We all love a dividend but if it dilutes a company’s ability to move forward then the adverse effect of a “sweetener dividend” in the long term is the share price anyway . I want to see Centamin management deliver production and ounces of gold and if they think they need to hold on to cash to achieve that then so be it . Lots of short term thinking on here .

[edjge2] 12/10/2018 22:11

POT STOCKS, GREEN GOLD, ON THE UP IN CANADA.

[mister md] 12/10/2018 20:51

Wall street recovering in last minutes of trade

[casual47] 12/10/2018 19:59

Matt, hard to say as we didn't see financials yet for q3. I think final divi ought to be at least 4-5 cents but who knows....

[qs99] 12/10/2018 19:35

Wall st gave up its gains today. Could see more red next week which should help
Gold IMO DYOR

[mattboxy] 12/10/2018 19:33

Ok thanks for clarifying Out of interest do know what the dividend will be if we assume 480000 for the year and they distribute 100% FCF ?

[casual47] 12/10/2018 18:36

Last year they gave us 100% FCF plus a little extra to round up the final divi to the nearest cent.

The only commitments policy wise around this are that shareholders will get at least 30% FCF and that they aim to maintain 250-300m cash in the bank.

(I'm not saying they will go beyond 100%FCF....I'm saying they should)

[mattboxy] 12/10/2018 18:23

Has the company ever stated whether it would use reserves to bolster dividend? I know they quote a minimum 30% FCF and I've a feeling they have mentioned 30-100% FCF but ive no feeling on use of reserves to bolster shortfall. Does anyone have any knowledge on this area? It would be best to deal in facts on the dividend rather than wishful thinking that could lead to more disappointment and subsequent share performance!

[casual47] 12/10/2018 18:09

What's wrong with returning cash to shareholders while still keeping 250m USD cash in the bank?

Cleopatra is completely self-funding so no worries there. The other African mine assets are nowhere near requiring all that much money. So why should CEY just sit on 300m+ USD and do nothing with it?

[kennyp52] 12/10/2018 17:37

Dividend at the expense of long term investment in the current & new production would be poor business decision making . Keep the cash reserve !! All of this can be put right by showing they can achieve target production in Q4 . Simple really .

[stevedaytrader] 12/10/2018 17:33

Agree Casual- glad I spent my HGM divis here at 89, helps balance some others I have at 103, and some older hangover from 131.
Long term this is still a complete bargain.

[casual47] 12/10/2018 16:20

They only gave 85% for the interim leaving about 8m USD of the H1 net cash flow. Add that to 50m and you get to 5 cents per share they can add easily on top of H2 100% net cash flow without having to break their policy of maintaining 250-300m USD cash.

So I think 10 cents should be easily achievable, provided they put their hand in the cookie jar.