Celsius Resources Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 20/1/2014 15:24

But what about the knock on to AVAP holders if that went through? If I were a minority shareholder in AVAP I would sell even if was illogical.

[davydoo] 20/1/2014 14:55

AVAP has a more diverse shareholder base, it would be harder to get the votes to de-list.

Plus there is good reason for CLA to delist, same cant be said for AVAP.

If there is a share swap that's a different exit option, but the delisting one remains. Ive seen it too many times on small caps to discount it.

Ultimately, what's the purpose of a stockmarket lising? to me the main ones are to raise new funds or to provide a market for existing holders. CLA could make the case it needs neither.

[davebowler] 20/1/2014 14:49

Davydoo re. the elephant in the room.Buying its own shares increases NAV and cuts out weak holders.If there was a share swap followed by a delisting of CLA surely there would be a stampede out of AVAP shares by all shareholders who feared the same disreputable treatment be meted out to them!

[dasv] 17/1/2014 11:22

yes I would assume there's an overhang and CLA are helping out. It's approx 1% of shares in issue so NB: in my opinion, not indicative of a material strategic change in direction.

[envirovision] 17/1/2014 11:02

Lets hope its part of an overhang currently holding the share price down.

[davydoo] 17/1/2014 10:08

good summary harrogate

the elephant in the room is that CLA could keep buying its own shares, or AVAP could swap its for paper and them and then CLA de-list, CLA holders are then left with a minority holding in an unlisted company

:/

[harrogate] 17/1/2014 09:47

Given that we have large holders who are happy to sell at 15p not sure it indicates much upside for CLA. Jeff is increasing AVAP holding using CLA's own money. I am happy as an AVAP holder

[davydoo] 17/1/2014 09:42

15p! wow that's good business for the company, and therefore the other shareholders.

Interesting though that Jeff didnt buy himself, he has previously bought substantial amounts of SKYW and AVAP at below mid when prices were already low.

[russman] 16/1/2014 19:55

I am wary of putting a NAV value on AVAP's options.

[davydoo] 16/1/2014 14:35

I doubt you'll see an offer at NAV, but I agree a share swap is the likely option, its what they did previously with the hedge fund Oceanwood, and it keeps AVAPs existing cash and finance facilities available for their ongoing ATR roll out to Virgin.

[davebowler] 16/1/2014 13:43

Yes as AVAP trades I think at a premium to its asset value it would be best to offer NAV to us by way of a share swap in my opinion.

[davydoo] 15/1/2014 08:10

Following AVAP growth and recent share price rises, their share in CLA is equivalent to less than 15% of their market cap now. Or put another way, buying what they dont own is less than 10% of their current market cap.

Time to take it out Jeff.

[albanyvillas] 13/1/2014 11:41

Liberum;
Avation plc (BUY, TP 150p)

New finance facility improves balance sheet flexibility

Event

Avation has agreed a new loan facility secured on the company's fleet of 5 unencumbered Fokker 100 aircraft. The funds are on standby and can be drawn to a maximum of $9.5m. The loan facility has been provided by an Australian-based institution on "usual commercial terms".

Liberum view

The new debt facility is important for Avation as it demonstrates the company's balance sheet flexibility to to fund the capital requirement arising from the acquisition pipeline. We previously estimated that there is $32m of equity that could be released from refinancing / new debt facilities. The new debt facility follows the recent sale of two ATR72-600 aircraft to a third party at the end of November 2013 which enhanced Avation's liquidity position and highlighted the hidden value on the balance sheet from the 27 remaining purchase options / purchase rights.

Avation is trading on a CY14 EV/EBITDA of 7.84x which represents an 30% discount to US-listed aircraft leasing companies. Our 150p price target implies 23% upside.

[harrogate] 13/1/2014 10:15

Only kidding I know what the angle on CLA is!!

[davebowler] 13/1/2014 10:04

Discount to NAV - I can't resist a bargain.Anyway if AVAP is good so is CLA, and I hope and expect in due course that AVAP will take it over.

[harrogate] 13/1/2014 09:59

So why you all holding CLA and not AVAP !!

[davebowler] 13/1/2014 09:57

That note might be out of date -if you look at the header it says 9 Sept.
Liberum has a note today on AVAP;
Avation plc (BUY, TP 150p)

New finance facility improves balance sheet flexibility

Event

Avation has agreed a new loan facility secured on the company's fleet of 5 unencumbered Fokker 100 aircraft. The funds are on standby and can be drawn to a maximum of $9.5m. The loan facility has been provided by an Australian-based institution on "usual commercial terms".

Liberum view

The new debt facility is important for Avation as it demonstrates the company's balance sheet flexibility to to fund the capital requirement arising from the acquisition pipeline. We previously estimated that there is $32m of equity that could be released from refinancing / new debt facilities. The new debt facility follows the recent sale of two ATR72-600 aircraft to a third party at the end of November 2013 which enhanced Avation's liquidity position and highlighted the hidden value on the balance sheet from the 27 remaining purchase options / purchase rights.

Avation is trading on a CY14 EV/EBITDA of 7.84x which represents an 30% discount to US-listed aircraft leasing companies. Our 150p price target implies 23% upside.

[russman] 10/1/2014 20:18

Annual Report 2013: Report of Directors Page 5 > 7,039,490 to 8,855,365. Shares in the holding company.

[davydoo] 10/1/2014 12:16

Thanks davebowler

davs, i presume theyre assuming Thomas Cook leases ended in 2015, and maybe continue at a lower rate?

Ive only just scanned it and already seen an error, CLA havent paid 0.5c divs in the last 2 years.

[dasv] 10/1/2014 12:09

thanks for the note from the house broker.

Does anyone know the reason for the tail off in revenue/profit in WHIrelands projections for 2015 and 2016?

[davebowler] 10/1/2014 11:44

09/01/14 WHIreland UK Equity Research:
Capital Lease Aviation - 2013FY results highlight valuation anomaly - Download report



hxxp://cl-aviation.com/files/CLA_WHIreland_short_note_9_sep_2013.pdf

[davydoo] 10/1/2014 09:37

Russman, where have you seen Jeffs deemed interest at 1.8m?

I mentioned previously that CLA and AVAP no longer publish lease rates, however I have tried to calculate the lease income on the recent purchase which is leased to Condor.

Page 51 of the 2013 accounts shows lease income expected 'within one year'. The difference between 2013 and 2012 is $2.23m p.a or $185k a month. (they bought the fifth plane just before year end and sold the old fokkers just before the previous year end, so i think the numbers are reliable)

They paid $26.5m for it.

If correct, less than a 10% yield sounds high considering it is not a new plane. At the recent AVAP roadshow management talked about leasing planes (mainly describing the ATRs i think) at a monthly rate of 1% of the purchase price. Then describing the residual value at the back end of the plane's life.

Only back of an envelope calculations, but interesting.

[russman] 09/1/2014 18:31

I am wondering how Jeff's deemed interest has escalated by 1.8m shares in the year when share capital and % has remained static. I assume it is deemed to be immaterial. I presume it is a movement at Epsom Assets held by Vidacos nominees.

[envirovision] 09/1/2014 15:43

Certainly seems to be plenty of free stock available to buy though