Celsius Resources Share Discussion Threads

[dasv] 07/1/2014 16:16

davydoo - no I hadn't noticed that. I note in the RNS's they have an "Executive Chairman" though: "Jeff Chatfield"

"Capital Lease Aviation PLC, (CLA:AIM) the aircraft leasing company, advises that the managing director, Mr Soeren Ferré, has resigned as a director. The board would like to thank Mr Ferré for his contribution to the Company during his tenure and wishes him well in the future.


Consequently Resolution 2 proposed for the Annual General Meeting scheduled for the 6th of December will not be put to the meeting.


In due course the Company's Nomination Committee will consider nominations for directors in the ordinary course of its business. In the interim his duties at board level will be taken on by Jeff Chatfield. An update will be provided at the Company AGM on the 6th of December 2013.
"

I don't know what the update on the 6th was but I note they appointed a non-exec to the board. It keeps the admin costs down I guess! I expect they will be looking to appoint another CEO - the last one joined in summer 2012 I think.

[wednesday6] 07/1/2014 16:01

you should have paid 17p and given us a tick up!

[horndean eagle] 07/1/2014 15:54

Thought overhang might be near to end and so went for a few more. 150k at 16.75 suggests no such joy as of yet. Cheeky beggars wanted 17p off me originally. 17m free float of shares.

[davydoo] 07/1/2014 15:50

I have no idea diku.

What i would like to know is whether when he resigned the company was still paying him 9.5% interest on his unsecured loan, or whether it had been fully repaid.

Welcome to Jeff's world :)

[diku] 07/1/2014 15:48

Why he resign?...

[davydoo] 07/1/2014 15:46

Just a sanity check to all the new buyers, you realise there is no CEO here right?

He resigned a few months ago.

[davydoo] 07/1/2014 15:40

well im in....again.

Fascinating to look back.

Between May 09 and May 10 I acquired 100,000 AVAP shares. I had sold them all by 26 Oct 10 on their move from PLUS to LSE.

My first purchase of CLA was on 6 Oct 10. (I transtioned out of AVAP and into CLA) By 14 feb 2011 I held 240,000, but I had sold them all by 16 June 2011. (so i barely lasted 6 months, although it seemed longer at the time)

My loss on CLA, including trading costs and stamp duty was £2,106.

AVAP announced the deal with SKYW and Virgin to supply 18 ATRs on 11 Jan 11, and placed 10m shares at £1 on 9 Mar 11. I started selling CLA on 16 Mar 11, if i recall correctly because i thought CLA had become a backwater, with all attention now on AVAP.

I bought 10,000 AVAP on 10 Jan 11 following the Skywest/Virgin news and sold them by 13 Jan 11 for a quick profit.

I then didnt buy AVAP again until May 2013 when it had fallen to mid 60's and then sold them all (too soon) in the 90s last year.

and now im back in CLA again.

It could be a long wait though.

[cwa1] 07/1/2014 15:09

Well, FWIW, and it's not really a lot I concede, when I went to make my actual buy, I polled the buys and sells through my online broker(Selftrade) and I was given a quote to buy about as many as I wanted but I could only sell 37,500 at the time. Always a sign of how "sated" the mms are IMHO.

Today, however, I'm getting a price of 16.5p to "sell" 500,000 and can only "buy" 50,000. A straw in the wind, hopefully, that any possible overhang might be reducing/disappearing perhaps? Or, of course, possibly CWA1 with his rose tinteds on once again ;-)

[davydoo] 07/1/2014 14:35

dasv, when i can call £225,000 a small discrepenancay in my investments I am giving up and moving to thailand

[dasv] 07/1/2014 14:09

yes on 20 Jan 2012 AVAP acquired 10,662,112 shares in CLA from Oceanwood by issuing Oceanwood 1,647,781 in AVAP.

FWIW:-

value of CLA shares (today's price 16.75p): £1,785,903

value of AVAP shares (assuming 122p) £2,010,292

only a 12.5% discrepancy?

[davydoo] 07/1/2014 13:33

For what it's worth I've met peter freeman (the director that bought) a few times. There's an interesting reason why he's a director. I have a lot of respect for him, and he was kind to give me good counsel when I was making my own career choices.

I take his buy more sincerely than other director buys I've seen.

[horndean eagle] 07/1/2014 13:06

Bit of director buying recently. Would hope that he was actually expecting some sort of return. A small bit of solace. There has been a large overhang of stock around here. Can't imagine there is too much left given the free float is quite small.

[davydoo] 07/1/2014 13:04

Good summary dasv.

I presume the 10% you refer to was from Oceanwood by issuing AVAP shares.

I was holding CLA (for the same reasons you have now) when Oceanwood first bought in. I felt vindicated in my analysis, but little happened to the share price. I presume Oceanwood's return has come from the AVAP shares it has now and not its time in CLA.

I used to envisage an over the barrel conversation 'take the AVAP shares, thats where the growth will be, and this purchase will enhance AVAP eps, which you will then hold'

I agree 1b is the best solution, but i think their is a third factor. The more succesful AVAP's share price is (nb not business performance) the more compelling the case to use its shares to buy CLA stock.

This is becoming more and more attractive to me again, particularly as i have less time to trade now, and need to know i can just sit and wait on some investments.

[dasv] 07/1/2014 12:24

Either

a) Shares continue to trade a discount to Nav, company trades as a zombie, years pass before re-rating

or:-

b) investors pick up on discount to NAV here and accumulate. Rise in share price self-fulfilling: technicals advertise opportunity encouraging further buyers.

re: Buy backs (One of)

1. AVAP buys back more shares in short to medium time frame
2. AVAP buys back after holders give up hope and sell-up
3. AVAP doesn't bother to buy-back at all

Obviously I'm hoping for b) and 1.

The main issues are how long are holders prepared to wait for the valuation anomaly to be resolved, and how targeted are AVAP in soaking up CLA shares? I guess my time scale would be 6 months minimum here for holding. I have no idea about AVAP's intentions but the fact they bought back another 10% of shares is encouraging.

[davydoo] 07/1/2014 10:11

thanks dasv, its harder to do the seat analysis now as they dont publish the lease rates. They just say 'at market rates' or something similar now.

[badtime] 07/1/2014 10:09

I'm in gd company then...i should add mine were bought through my sipp..i'm not sure of how long it will take for the share price to reflect the value here....i see from the SHA thread DASV is in...i started looking a few months back but hav held off until now

[cwa1] 07/1/2014 08:10

Morning All

Well, if it's good enough for you esteemed gentlemen ;-) then I reckon I'll have a minuscule punt myself. Looks interesting and I would have some more but the long term chart has the look of death about it and I'm not entirely sure what the outer is going to be!


Good luck to all

[envirovision] 06/1/2014 21:20

Grabbed a few in the sipp today and joined you.

[badtime] 06/1/2014 21:05

took a nibble today

[dasv] 06/1/2014 15:41

I liked your cost per seat analysis too.

The net asset value versus valuation (on the face of it) makes CLA look appealing. I think I got my price to sales ratio wrong however - price to book for CLA is 0.6

[davydoo] 06/1/2014 10:51

thanks dasv, just had a look back at a few myself, interesting to read back what i thought then.

This one stood out:


davydoo
11 Oct'10 - 15:52 - 118 of 280 0 0 edit


I realised over the weekend that the AVAP price is now 5x the CLA price. A year ago it was about half the CLA price. Thats a 10x difference in investment performance

e.g. a £1000 CLA investment is now £250
a £1000 AVAP investment is now £2500

How amazing is that for two such similar companies?

We know the reasons, previously unrealistic CLA price, AVAP taking on the A320 lease and AVAP moving to LSE from PLUS, but my conviction to keep moving from AVAP to CLA is very strong now.

[dasv] 06/1/2014 10:29

davydoo - thanks for the posts and thanks for all the posts over the years on these threads - I have been reading your posts on the old PLUS thread for AVAP. It seems to me that there is a valuation anomaly here (CLA undervalued) but that it may remain overlooked for an indefinite period. I suspect AVAP will gradually buy out all the shares over some years. CLA may be too small a market cap for an insti to buy into in volume? (admit to not checking holdings RNS's for CLA as yet). I will read previous posts on this thread when I have more time.

[davydoo] 04/1/2014 20:35

Russman CLA are AVAP, it's not about their support or not.

This is both good and bad, the bad bit being any decent deal (like ARAN with Virgin) is better done within AVAP with 100% return not CLA with 60% return.

Dasv if you have time might be worth reading back through the old posts on this board, and the old AVAP board when they were plus listed. Both boards have been quiet and rarely attracted the usual ramping crowd. I frequently made comparisons between comparative valuations. My analysis may not be great but it's what I thought at the time, and it's harder to compare with hindsight.

Hard to believe but AVAP used to be valued at less than its share of CLA, I went all in on AVAP then. It did well, but reality was CLA was overvalued and fell from 60p to about 15p and has stayed there ever since.

I wouldn't rely on WHI forecasts they've been shocking, and early broker notes which I don't think are on the website now used to set ridiculous share price targets.

Also I would not describe CLA as having a yield, think it only paid one dividend once.

Glad to see your interest and analysis good for holders and potential holders alike.

[russman] 04/1/2014 19:44

Why pay a divi? AVAP do not need the cash or they would buy CLA. Refinance the balance sheet & ramp up purchases. With or without AVAP's support.