Celsius Resources Share Discussion Threads

[timanglin] 30/11/2010 18:28

AVAP pay a dividend - why not CLA?

[davydoo] 30/11/2010 18:24

Im planning to go to the CLA agm so i contacted my broker about getting a letter of respresentation for the shares i hold as i hold them in a nominee account. I hadnt realised the shares are 10p shares, so at the current price of 14.5p we're not actually that far away. Im not sure whether it means the shares cant trade below that value, or just whether the company cant issue new shares below that value. A kind of protection against dilution. Anyway it doesnt really matter, I just thought it was interesting in this day of so many shares with par/nominal values of 0.005p. It doesnt change the performance or the prospects.

Gosgos and anyone else who might be interested, are you going? do you have any questions you'd like asked?

[gosgos] 12/11/2010 07:54

I agree but really they should want a higher AVAP price before they do that. I imagine a limited AVAP buyback would also achieve that. They have the cash flow available.

[davydoo] 11/11/2010 22:09

I agree that the original investors will be looking for at least 24p.

I cant see CLA doing a dilutitive (nice word) fundraising because AVAP would have to buy in too to maintain their 51% control, so why not just do an AVAP fundraising instead, which must be an easier sell, being main market, div paying, no controlling parent etc.

The answer has to lie in an AVAP fundraising to buy out a depressed CLA, and therefore buy more aircraft per $ that way than buying new aircraft.

[gosgos] 11/11/2010 18:52

Fair point DD but it is a fairly specific mandate so they must have an idea for how they might use it. Also current price does not help them since I imagine they would need to offer Vidacos at least the 24p they paid previously given that the net asset value is above this. I don't believe they could buy in the rest of CLA at the current price but issuing more equity at either the CLA or the AVAP price would be quite dilutitive (if that's a word)

[davydoo] 11/11/2010 17:37

It will be interesting. But i cant see the point in CLA buying upto 10% and pushing the price up if AVAP want the other 40% too. I just want AVAP to come in with a decent buyout price either cash or avap stock, that the major CLA holders will accept, and the deal will complete, my holding and vote is too small to count.

AVAP have had a mandate to buy back for the last few years and never used it, despite the shares being at 30p, when they had been buying back shares in the early years at upto 80p.

I'd sell some of mine for 25p for a quick return, but not for much less. That price would put their nav and p/e ratio back inline with AVAP.

[gosgos] 10/11/2010 13:58

Hi DD. My CLA report has only just arrived from Singapore (not sure why it is sent from there). Reading through I was reminded that only 6.62% of shares are held outside the named five which is about 6.5m shares or just under £1m worth at current prices. It would be incredibly easy and cheap for CLA to send the price up very quickly if they exercise their buy back mandate under Resolution 5. Interesting that they have put a ceiling of 25p per share on the mandate too.

[gosgos] 01/11/2010 15:11

I agree that there are many permutations DD, however, I cannot see how an under-valued share price for both AVAP and CLA helps in any situation. Therefore if they want to expand their leasing fleet significantly they should want to boost one of the two share prices prior to raising more equity and debt. AVAP seems the more obvious share price to boost although CLA clearly has plenty of cash flow and more tightly held shares so it would not take much of a buy back to boost the CLA price significantly.

[davydoo] 01/11/2010 13:40

Excellent. same day as AVAP, so maybe they'll just do back to back agm's. Suits me, I would have struggled to attend on two separate dates.

Interesting to note the resolution for a share buy back mandate. They didnt have that last year. (Upto 10% of shares up to 25p) so without that they wouldnt have been able to buy back any this year. It would be interesting to see whether this is planned to give a route out to an existing major holder, or to sweep up the few shares left in the market.

I need to shuffle this all in my head, but if CLA buy back shares and cancel them, this then increases AVAPs holding, and reduces the amount of shares AVAP need to buy themselves later to take it all out, but that wouldnt be very helpful if CLA's purchases push up the price for AVAP later.

im still puzzled at the various ways this could all pan out.

[gosgos] 01/11/2010 13:13

Well the AGM is in London

[gosgos] 29/10/2010 09:41

One would have to say no ;-( I am a little perplexed as to why they do not do more to bolster the AVAP share price since at these valuations a share buyback would seem a more effective way to deliver shareholder value than the dividend. A higher share price would obviously also make it easier to acquire the rest of CLA and raise new funds.

At the moment acquiring CLA for AVAP stock seems quite tricky. No doubt Jeff has a plan though ...

[davydoo] 29/10/2010 09:23

Yes, I assume so, well 51% of it anyway.

Which adds to the reasons for AVAP to buy out CLA.

Again being slightly cynical, is it in AVAPs interest to revalue the CLA portfolio higher if it plans to acquire it?

[harrogate] 29/10/2010 09:19

I assume this means that the share of any gain will come through into the AVAP accounts anyway?

[davydoo] 29/10/2010 09:13

Just doing some re-reading this morning, and spotted this in the Loeb Aron note;

Note 1: All the revaluation gains are attributable to the 100% Avation owned aircraft. CLA has, probably marginally conservatively, not accounted for any asset revaluations on appraisal in FY 2008/9 or in H1 FY 2009/10. By analogy with the similar Avation owned fleet and reviewing general appraisal value tables, it would seem likely there may be some potential "hidden" value. Although largely standardised, aircraft appraisal is by no means an exact science and true realisable values under commercial conditions may differ
substantially from appraised values.

This is good news. As I was AVAP focused at the time, i probably didnt pick up on it. Whereas now I have a larger CLA holding.

[davydoo] 26/10/2010 09:12

Some basic analysis from the AVAP finals. (please add or correct me) I'm assuming a straight 51% and 49% split between AVAP and other 'non controlling interest' in CLA

Profit attributable to:
Equity holders of the parent 1,653,027 2,645,976
Non-controlling interest 1,165,556 1,585,937
----------- -----------
2,818,583 4,231,913
----------- -----------

so if £1,165,556 represents the 49% non controlling interest, then the vast bulk of the £1,653,027 is made up of the other 51% of CLA owned by AVAP. Suggesting that AVAP, or its subsidiaries F100 and MSN 429 only made just under £500k

and similar numbers here...

Total comprehensive income attributable to:
Equity holders of the parent 4,069,879 6,107,187
Non-controlling interest 2,827,006 2,017,774
----------- -----------
6,896,885 8,124,961


CLA is valued at £14.68m today, so the 49% is valued at £7.19m.

Based on these numbers AVAP is on a p/e of 10, CLA 6

Also CLA has a greater discount to NAV

Finally CLA has repaid its Mezzanine finance, which will increase profits next year, despite no new leases. Although AVAP is closer to clearing all debts on its planes.

[harrogate] 26/10/2010 08:51

Hi

That is a good spot. I think you might be right about this. The fact is that CLA having a separate listing now makes no sense and it has to all get sorted. I will hold AVAP until I see the score but i think it may well drift down a bit until we have a new lease.

[davydoo] 26/10/2010 08:45

7 lines down.

Hardly a big fanfare, but its a start.

*cycnical view* W H Ireland are the Nomad and Broker, if CLA are going to get bought out, restructured or anything that might make the price rise, its good timing for W H Ireland to issue their BUY stance. Doing so just before, cant hurt their reputuation in the future. e.g. look back two years.... we called CLA spot on.

maybe that was more a *hopeful view*

[gosgos] 22/10/2010 07:29

Looking forward to Monday ;-) Have good weekends!

[davydoo] 22/10/2010 07:18

Great news. Thanks Harrogate.

[harrogate] 22/10/2010 06:22

You are right those warrants just lapsed and you have to feel they knew the price was going sub 24p!!

Just has confirmation from Jeff that the results at AVAP are out on Monday !

[davydoo] 21/10/2010 16:35

just looked at the 09 report, cant see any reference to an exercisable from date. They only had a 2.4 year life, and as they were issued at the same price as the fund raising from institutions, and not discounted, i think they were exercisable at any time.

[davydoo] 21/10/2010 16:26

of course. hadnt thought of that.

[harrogate] 21/10/2010 16:21

What was the exercise window of them ...maybe they couldn't until it was too late

[davydoo] 21/10/2010 16:08

I just looked again at those options. Amazing to think that the directors had approx 3 million options at 24p since 2007, which was before they bought the two main A321 aircraft, and before the price went to 80p and yet hardly any were ever exerised. I wonder why?

Did they realise it was over valued? Was it a gentlemens agreement not to exerice and sell? who knows.

[davydoo] 21/10/2010 10:56

annual report out this morning. had a quick flick through.

Great to see all the options lapsed. It always worried me that if exercised AVAP might lose control.

Slightly worrying to realise I hold more shares than the entire board! but at least Jeff has a huge AVAP holding.

A couple of new nominee holdings on the siginificant holdings list, but it seems a rehash of the previous holdings, no additional holder, but i need to check.

trade receievables greatly improved.

no details of an agm yet.