Celsius Resources Share Discussion Threads

[davydoo] 29/10/2010 10:23

Yes, I assume so, well 51% of it anyway.

Which adds to the reasons for AVAP to buy out CLA.

Again being slightly cynical, is it in AVAPs interest to revalue the CLA portfolio higher if it plans to acquire it?

[harrogate] 29/10/2010 10:19

I assume this means that the share of any gain will come through into the AVAP accounts anyway?

[davydoo] 29/10/2010 10:13

Just doing some re-reading this morning, and spotted this in the Loeb Aron note;

Note 1: All the revaluation gains are attributable to the 100% Avation owned aircraft. CLA has, probably marginally conservatively, not accounted for any asset revaluations on appraisal in FY 2008/9 or in H1 FY 2009/10. By analogy with the similar Avation owned fleet and reviewing general appraisal value tables, it would seem likely there may be some potential "hidden" value. Although largely standardised, aircraft appraisal is by no means an exact science and true realisable values under commercial conditions may differ
substantially from appraised values.

This is good news. As I was AVAP focused at the time, i probably didnt pick up on it. Whereas now I have a larger CLA holding.

[davydoo] 26/10/2010 10:12

Some basic analysis from the AVAP finals. (please add or correct me) I'm assuming a straight 51% and 49% split between AVAP and other 'non controlling interest' in CLA

Profit attributable to:
Equity holders of the parent 1,653,027 2,645,976
Non-controlling interest 1,165,556 1,585,937
----------- -----------
2,818,583 4,231,913
----------- -----------

so if £1,165,556 represents the 49% non controlling interest, then the vast bulk of the £1,653,027 is made up of the other 51% of CLA owned by AVAP. Suggesting that AVAP, or its subsidiaries F100 and MSN 429 only made just under £500k

and similar numbers here...

Total comprehensive income attributable to:
Equity holders of the parent 4,069,879 6,107,187
Non-controlling interest 2,827,006 2,017,774
----------- -----------
6,896,885 8,124,961


CLA is valued at £14.68m today, so the 49% is valued at £7.19m.

Based on these numbers AVAP is on a p/e of 10, CLA 6

Also CLA has a greater discount to NAV

Finally CLA has repaid its Mezzanine finance, which will increase profits next year, despite no new leases. Although AVAP is closer to clearing all debts on its planes.

[harrogate] 26/10/2010 09:51

Hi

That is a good spot. I think you might be right about this. The fact is that CLA having a separate listing now makes no sense and it has to all get sorted. I will hold AVAP until I see the score but i think it may well drift down a bit until we have a new lease.

[davydoo] 26/10/2010 09:45

7 lines down.

Hardly a big fanfare, but its a start.

*cycnical view* W H Ireland are the Nomad and Broker, if CLA are going to get bought out, restructured or anything that might make the price rise, its good timing for W H Ireland to issue their BUY stance. Doing so just before, cant hurt their reputuation in the future. e.g. look back two years.... we called CLA spot on.

maybe that was more a *hopeful view*

[gosgos] 22/10/2010 08:29

Looking forward to Monday ;-) Have good weekends!

[davydoo] 22/10/2010 08:18

Great news. Thanks Harrogate.

[harrogate] 22/10/2010 07:22

You are right those warrants just lapsed and you have to feel they knew the price was going sub 24p!!

Just has confirmation from Jeff that the results at AVAP are out on Monday !

[davydoo] 21/10/2010 17:35

just looked at the 09 report, cant see any reference to an exercisable from date. They only had a 2.4 year life, and as they were issued at the same price as the fund raising from institutions, and not discounted, i think they were exercisable at any time.

[davydoo] 21/10/2010 17:26

of course. hadnt thought of that.

[harrogate] 21/10/2010 17:21

What was the exercise window of them ...maybe they couldn't until it was too late

[davydoo] 21/10/2010 17:08

I just looked again at those options. Amazing to think that the directors had approx 3 million options at 24p since 2007, which was before they bought the two main A321 aircraft, and before the price went to 80p and yet hardly any were ever exerised. I wonder why?

Did they realise it was over valued? Was it a gentlemens agreement not to exerice and sell? who knows.

[davydoo] 21/10/2010 11:56

annual report out this morning. had a quick flick through.

Great to see all the options lapsed. It always worried me that if exercised AVAP might lose control.

Slightly worrying to realise I hold more shares than the entire board! but at least Jeff has a huge AVAP holding.

A couple of new nominee holdings on the siginificant holdings list, but it seems a rehash of the previous holdings, no additional holder, but i need to check.

trade receievables greatly improved.

no details of an agm yet.

[davydoo] 18/10/2010 17:15

We might get the annual report this week, the last two years its been about 2 weeks after the results announcement.

[gosgos] 18/10/2010 13:42

Best of luck to us both DD ;-)

[davydoo] 18/10/2010 13:17

I bought another 20k this morning. Still getting them at 15.5p. So we might see a similar amount sold at 14p again.

Thats it for me now, I have the holding I want. I will wait to see what unfolds with Avations annual results, which I guess they will announce ahead of any new fund raising or CLA merger plans.

[gosgos] 11/10/2010 17:15

In my experience it can be somewhat irrational on the sellers part where, for example, a fund has decided to exit a share and simply makes it known to one or market makers that they are happy to sell off their holding at a price of x.

Volume seems too small to be institutions though but you never know. I can't see that it benefits AVAP long term for the price of CLA to be so low given that this means institutional supporters are under water. They could easily afford to buy back some shares and it would quickly put a floor under the price.

[davydoo] 11/10/2010 16:58

Thanks I hadnt seen that. Looks like my recent buys have been closely matched with equivalent selling at 14p. The Market Makers are clearly doing very well getting a 10% spread.

I dont really know how that world works, but it feels like theres a seller at 14p but is needing purchases before being able to get that sell price. Im nearly done buying now, then i'll sit and wait for the situation to unfold. So we're going to need new buyers, or AVAP doing something for this to move higher.

I dont mind waiting though.

[davydoo] 11/10/2010 16:32

Yes. 2 AVAP sells and 2 CLA buys both me.

[gosgos] 11/10/2010 16:23

It's madness I agree - are today's two trades yours?

[davydoo] 11/10/2010 15:52

I realised over the weekend that the AVAP price is now 5x the CLA price. A year ago it was about half the CLA price. Thats a 10x difference in investment performance

e.g. a £1000 CLA investment is now £250
a £1000 AVAP investment is now £2500

How amazing is that for two such similar companies?

We know the reasons, previously unrealistic CLA price, AVAP taking on the A320 lease and AVAP moving to LSE from PLUS, but my conviction to keep moving from AVAP to CLA is very strong now.

[davydoo] 07/10/2010 17:37

I agree Gosgos.

What i didnt understand about your question microscope was why CLA would need to make an announcement? It's up to AVAP to make those announcements in its own good time.

AVAP has to make announcements re CLA because CLA is a subsidaiary, but CLA doesnt have to make accouncments about AVAP because AVAP is a shareholder.