Celsius Resources Share Discussion Threads

[gosgos] 27/8/2010 11:51

btw on a cash flow basis the valuations of CLA and AVAP look about the same to me

[gosgos] 27/8/2010 11:49

Interesting! I suspected as much since bid/offer ticked up not down but good to know for real. I can't see why Avation would pay cash for CLA shares except as an alternative for small holders. Obviously this is all highly speculative but the main reason to move AVAP from Plus would seem to be as part of a new equity raise. Merging CLA and AVAP at this point would also seem to make sense UNLESS there is a problem getting the institutions to agree on a valuation of AVAP and CLA equity.

Either way I like having a position in both since I think both are under-valued.

Fingers crossed ;-)

[davydoo] 27/8/2010 11:16

OK i now know that trade this morning was probably a buy, despite being way below the buy price, because i've just bought some myself at a similar price.

[davydoo] 27/8/2010 11:09

Good point. Any ideas how they might do that?

AVAP arent going to want to overpay for the CLA shares they dont already own, but to complete the deal i guess they'll have to overpay the market price or swap for Avation shares, which if better 'value' would be poor use of their paper(ive long questionned why they werent buying shares back) So the comparitive value analysis we've been doing is very releavnt.

You have made me think now. A holding in CLA though could be a great little arbitarge opportunity at best, and at worst a good hedge. Interesting.

[gosgos] 27/8/2010 11:01

Certainly not ;-) I am hopeful that any move by AVAP to the main market would also mop up CLA's listing and that AVAP will need to pay more than the current share price both due to Net Assets being over 20p and original equity raise being at 24p.

[davydoo] 27/8/2010 09:55

A trade, a trade, CLA had a trade! A small sale that seems to have moved the price up a little, but its the first one on PLUS since March.

Cashing in a few Gosgos?

[davydoo] 25/8/2010 16:44

Glad youve found it Gosgos. Its by no means an active board, but a few regular posters if you can wade through my occaisonal rambles.

[gosgos] 25/8/2010 12:49

Thanks Davydoo - hadn't realised there was an Avation thread but have found it now!

[davydoo] 25/8/2010 06:56

Thanks Gosgos

Yes i still hold a lot of Avation shares. Have you seen my post on the Avation thread about a reserach note from Loeb Aron?

I think the Loeb Aron note is much more realistic, GE&CR have consistently been over bullish, and always seem to value the co at the value of its fleet, ignoring debt, which doesnt seem right to me, beacuse althought the debt will clear the aircraft will be worth less when it does.

Loeb Aron also speculate more about the move to the main market and possible full merger with CLA.

Avation have risen, and CLA havent, and I think theyre getting to close to equal value at last.

[gosgos] 25/8/2010 06:42

Hi Davydoo
Are you still in Avation? GE&CR have published a new note:



which is as you would expect positive. Reiterates the story quite nicely and suggests a healthy £1.50 value

[kdixon148] 15/7/2010 13:32

So what happend ?

Was there nothing left for the shareholders?

[gosgos] 14/7/2010 07:10

Hi Davydoo
Yes I am still invested in all 3 on the basis of fundamental value for AVAP and CLA and good performance metrics for SKYW. These are long term holds for me though since it is practically impossible (for me at least) to read the short term market.

[davydoo] 13/7/2010 10:23

Gosgos are you still invested in CLA? the share seems to have entered another hibernation period, although I guess most of the shares are held by the major shareholders who arent trading.

Any thoughts on the relationship between CLA, AVAP and SKYW? AVAP has risen as SKYW has fallen, which i think is due to the high costs that SKYW are bearing to bring on the new A320, once they add more planes that initial investment will pay handsomly. I still think Avation is slightly the better prospect, but with the tax issue looking clearer in Aus and SKYW reporting good figures today, SKYW might be the best short term play.

[gosgos] 30/4/2010 18:26

I should have made clear I was referring to the upward move in Avation. I assume the original benefit of CLA was the equity investment from 3rd parties so I guess some of it will depend on whether they think it worth raising fresh equity or debt in which case CLA may be a more attractive prospect for new money then Avation. Hard to tell but I have to say Jeff Chatfield seems to be doing everything right from an operating perspective, it is just not reflected in the leasing vehicles valuation. I invested quite late in Skywest itself and am already sitting on a healthy profit. When they move I think they will move quickly.
Best

[davydoo] 30/4/2010 17:18

Hi Gosgos

It seems to have gone quiet with CLA,I havent seen many trades recently and certainly no news.

With Avation setting up MSN 429 to buy their A320 i am wondering about the plans for CLA. However I think the original plan was for Avation to do the leasing to Skywest, and CLA to other airlines, so maybe we'll see CLA used again.

I presume they will. because their balance sheet is just improving all the time as debt is paid down.

[gosgos] 26/4/2010 19:30

Dear all
Nice to see an upward move. I have read that the leasing market is re-opening with at least one new major fund being raised. Hopefully CLA will resume its upward path as well ;-)

[davydoo] 17/3/2010 20:44

I think we'll see that price again zchan1, my analysis has Avation valued at 118p

Im sure 'the market' see aviation as a risk, then consider Skywest as a small aviation company a greater risk. For me its the opposite, Skywests success and expected growth add security for me.

I also like what I call the currency daisy chain here; Skywest receive highly regarded Aussie dollars for their services, then pay their aircraft rentals in depreciating US dollars, which is then transferred to a crippled UK sterling share price and dividend.

Lovely.

[zchanl1] 17/3/2010 20:18

Hi guys

Im a long term holder from 80p of Avation. Sitting on a very unhealthy loss here at present...

Must agree the fundamentals look strong still for all three companies - hoping that in a few years time when the market picks up properly then buyers will return in all shapes and sizes.

Good luck one and all

[davydoo] 17/3/2010 20:10

Nope it wasnt me, it was a decent size buy though.

I've decided not to add any more, no matter how undervalued I think they are, I need to make sure I keep a balance across my holdings.

[gosgos] 16/3/2010 14:38

Amazing - someone other than me has bought some! Was it you davydoo?

[davydoo] 03/3/2010 21:06

I've e-mailed Jeff Chatfield before, i was very impressed by the speed and detail of his response, and ive seen other people on the Avation board say the same.

Ive had similar problems as you in the past, i tried to buy 10,000 shares when the price was about 35p and my broker came back with something like this...5000 shares for 35p, 3000 shares for 38p and 2000 shares for 40p. I've no idea about going straight to those companies to source shares. I know Loeb Aron have their own holding, and some of the 3% plus shareholders are directors of WH Ireland

I really dont think it would take much demand to see this soar back up to previous levels. Its amazing to look at the Avation share price pre CLA when it just had a few Fokker 100s leased to Skywest.

I think youre right about a possible interim dividend, i seem to recall it was suggested in broker forecasts and research (paid for by Avation) back in '07 and '08 and I once saw Jeff Chatfield interviewed re Skywest and he seemed a big fan of dividends.

One thing that gave me confidence in the past was considering what a tiny new company Avation was Credit Suisse and Lehman (pre collapse) had major shareholdings, and in the background now is bennelong asset management, with i think a CFD interest in about 17% of the shares.

Hopefully Avation interims will follow very shortly

[gosgos] 03/3/2010 18:35

btw I had an email conversation with Mr Chatfield today about the difficulty of buying Avation in volume and he suggested trying WH Ireland, Loeb Aron and Hargreaves Hale.

I know you like Avation (as do I). I bought a few more Avation today as well. You never know, they may introduce an interim dividend as well as a full year one. Now that would be nice ;-)

[gosgos] 03/3/2010 18:28

Hi Davydoo
We seem to have this board to ourselves. Given that it is at a similar level as the previous year and also that the same was true (e.g. similar levels 2009/2008) in the full year accounts but at about 50% of the half year level, I would guess that it may be due to deferred income.

But that is only a guess.