Celsius Resources Share Discussion Threads

[davydoo] 03/3/2010 18:05

Something else i noticed was the diluted eps being equal to the basic eps which suggests there are no more outstanding share options, and we know that this years options were voted down at the agm. This was always a niggling worry to me as an Avation shareholder that somehow Avations share of CLA would be diluted below 51% unless they bought additional shares in the market.

Whilst i like the principle of management being incentivised with share options, I always find it makes the understandig of accounts a lot harder, and adds an uncertainty about the ongoing issuance of further options in the future.

I have one concern though, the high amount of 'trade and other payables' within the current liabilities at $4,734,102 what is that? I assume some is payables due on maintenance, but as their is no purchasing/stock issue for CLA (they own their planes) then what is this figure for?

any ideas Gosgos? or anyone else reading this board?

[davydoo] 03/3/2010 17:44

hope you found yourself entertaining this morning Gosgos :)

I agree the results look ok. As expected really, the same as a year ago, with a few tweaks due to exchamge rates and maintenance income v claims. Without any new planes, im not sure why some people were looking for more, or expecting a continuation of last years growth rates.

The stand out to me was the absence of a referral to the $100m facility that they secured but never actually used, and that always used to be mentioned in their results. This is where future growth will come from, leveraging the existing assets. I wonder if this is linked to why Avation are buying an A320 with vendor finance instead of CLA.

20% plus on your investment already! mustve been a good day for you.

[gosgos] 03/3/2010 11:24

and I calculate the NAV per share as 38.4 US cents or 25.6p. Right not posting any more as I seem to be speaking to myself ;-)

[gosgos] 03/3/2010 07:46

Yes Net Assets still going up as expected with long term debt dropping by $9m. Only variable element is lower maintenance revenues which fluctuate for reasons outside the company's control

Looks a good long term hold to me ;-)

[gosgos] 03/3/2010 07:31

Well they look ok to me....

[gosgos] 02/3/2010 19:38

Roll on the interims...btw I am now invested in SKYW as well so I am 3 for 3

[davydoo] 02/3/2010 19:13

I noticed, if it didnt take much to pull it down, then I hope for your sake with that 12.1p purchase it wont take much to pull it back up either.

[gosgos] 02/3/2010 15:34

Inching up a halfpenny at a time ;-)

[davydoo] 27/2/2010 21:38

I have a similar outlook holding Avation. I have re read both sets of accounts several times, and make sure Im aware of things at Skywest (where im also a shareholder) Thomas Cook and US Airways.

I agree with your point about about brokers sourcing a buyer for a major chunk of shares, but maybe theyre put off by Avation holding 51% or that as an industry there are lots of airline leasing co's for sale, e.g. ILFC potentially and RBS Aviation

I worked out some simple numbers for someone on the Avation board, and I now think CLA is at the right price in relation to Avation, and that theyre now both undervalued, instead of my prior opinion that just Avation was undervalued when CLA was at 60p

I completly agree with your long term basis, that if nothing changes, and no new aircraft are bought, then in a few years we have a zero debt co. holding aircraft with value. That adds a lot of security for me.

I also like that revenue is in dollars, and not pounds, as we benefit from a declining pound.

[gosgos] 27/2/2010 13:15

Specifically on the further falls, it would be consistent with a sizeable seller wishing to exit and being unable to, however what does not quite make sense about this explanation is:
i) why wouldn't the company's brokers get involved in trying to source a purchaser outside the market (this would be normal in my experience) and why wouldn't they be successful
ii) what stock are the MM's using to satisfy the small purchases that take place at these levels
I would love to know exactly what is happening. I have seen plenty of examples recently of small caps getting very cheap and then bouncing back rapidly on news. However there is always the risk that there is something really wrong!
I keep everything crossed ;-)

[gosgos] 27/2/2010 12:02

Well when it halved I bought more after having read the accounts from cover to cover again. I have been buying all the way down, since on a long term basis I think the value must be in the 50p-60p range minimum based on the fact that their lease arrangements cover their debt and leave them owning the aircraft debt free in a few years time.

I worry about the risk of it being taken over at an artificially low valuation but can't see why that would be in Avation's interest unless it was Avation buying it back (and I hold Avation too). Hopefully I am not missing anything!

[davydoo] 27/2/2010 11:16

Well done indeed.

I bought some Avation for 32p when the spread was 30-33, then the spread went to 30-35, moving the mid price up 1p.

Its amazing what small purchases can do, and what small sales have done to CLA. I think you'll do well with that purchase.

Id be interested to hear from those that bought in at 30p when the share price halved overnight. Quite a few people came on the board to say what a bargain it was, and how it must go back up, i just wondered what your thoughts are now that there has been further falls.

[gosgos] 27/2/2010 09:50

Yes I did ;-)

[davydoo] 27/2/2010 09:00

To add to the illiudity problem with Avation, not all trades are being reported. I bought some recently that have not shown as a trade, apparantly the market maker has some kind of problems when i queried it with my broker.

Did you get your 25,000 for 12.1p? well done if you did

[gosgos] 25/2/2010 15:40

As you know, I hold both. Trouble with Avation in my experience is that it is less liquid. Have just bought 25,000 more CLA, here's hoping my analysis is correct and that long term it will return to fundamentals

[davydoo] 25/2/2010 10:29

Another fall today due to a tiny sale, yet Avation unchanged. Ive always held Avation and not CLA, due to the previous valuation difference, but if this continues there might be a case to switch holdings.

[gosgos] 24/2/2010 08:43

However, I then emailed Jeff Chatfield directly. He responded overnight (presumably he is in either Singapore or Australia) and said the results for both CLA and Avation should be out very soon. So hopefully we should soon know whether the slide is due to performance or to a large seller seeking to get out. Given that Skywest is clearly healthy and that of the other 3 aircraft 2 are leased to Thomas Cook and the other is with US Airways whose stock is near its year high I struggle to see what could be wrong with the leases (famous last words).
Time will tell....

[gosgos] 23/2/2010 10:05

Bishopsgate say they don't know when Avation plan to announce half year figures

[gosgos] 20/2/2010 19:38

Have just emailed Bishopsgate to see if they will tell me when Avation will report its half year. Will post reply if any

[gosgos] 20/2/2010 10:23

No no response at all

[davydoo] 20/2/2010 08:54

Did you get a response Gosgos? we're way past the date of the last two years' interims

[davydoo] 09/2/2010 19:16

Cheers Gosgos, ive been checking every morning for the interims because i know theyre due

[gosgos] 09/2/2010 13:33

Back now - emailed the company last night to ask when they plan to announce interims

I see Sky West's load factors have improved so hopefully no bad news there. Hard to see where bad news can come from as the other leases are with big tour operators

[zchanl1] 09/2/2010 13:14

Enjoy Gosgos

[davydoo] 27/1/2010 19:29

I should have said Avation have 5 planes not 6, although they are in the process of buying a sixth.

Enjoy the slopes Gosgos