Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 21/7/2020 20:12

Maybe we get news, if we do, hope it's good. Wouldn't it be nice to talk decisively about Caspian, no ifs, buts or maybes, one day Rodders

[davidblack] 21/7/2020 17:38

Hopefully!

[xclusive2] 21/7/2020 16:22

Yep, good ole GB.

Oil price futures, always difficult to call as affected by so many factors but i really do see it continuing trend north as demand builds. Busiest 3 months in the States for gas guzzling and demand building. There will be a vaccine in the not too distant future and hopefully it's our Oxford University and hopefully the Cyber se curity is good enough to stop Russia, China etc nicking the IP. This says a lot for UK Science and would be a great coup for the country.

Oil price positive drivers
Virus under control in many countries
Track and trace technology
More prepared from a health perspective to deal with virus (developed world)
A successful vaccine that can be manufactured quickly in volume
Demand building / inventory draw
Opec+ and others committed to managed long term cuts
High cost operators insolvency and consolidation



Negatives
CV19 wave 2 - still believe life goes on and local lockdown v global
Geopolitical - wars - good and bad
Politics - Biden gets in andIran sanctions off and 1m bpd+ back on market
Less demand than pre Covid - the new norm ?


I believe the positives far outweigh the negatives and oil will go north, the big players need it well above current levels regardless of politics. I believe that we have to get back to normal or the new normal asap. Much there has been a shift in thinking from a work perspective ie more home working etc, those who think that can work need to get into the real world. November will show that there are 3m+ unemployed in the UK. The redundancies haven't happened yet, the longer the cities stay empty as people don't want to risk public transport, the more pain we inflict on GDP and UK Plc. If offices aren't back, the hospitality trade is in tatters and more unemployed, more unemployment, more benefit claims, less taxation, yada yada. My team is back and much that it's too early, i can carry the short term pain and will preserve jobs. Got to get back on the horse now and ignore the Lefty agenda that we can work effectively at home 4 days a week. Not saying that there won't be a change in working practices, there will be but the cost to the economy will be considerable. Back on the horse now and if you don't like, here's the directions to the Job Centre, time to get back to reality !

What's this got to do with Casper ? everything as demand = higher oil price = increased operational activity = more revenue and higher share price = shareholder value👍

[rutter] 21/7/2020 16:17

The game played is this. Let's see how many shares can be offloaded without the share price dropping. Another riveting day for us CC

[dhb368] 21/7/2020 15:28

Only 4 years since 1979 has gold been below $300.

Guess when Gordon Brown sold 400 tonnes (over half) of UK gold reserves. Fkwit

[konil] 21/7/2020 13:59

smarty, yeah gold/silver playing the game, wish casp would!

[xclusive2] 21/7/2020 13:39

Konil,

Good to see your Gold play @ 1,840 a troy ounce as i type !! Meanwhile oil moving towards $45 and we're still on our arze.

[hallow] 21/7/2020 13:29

Multi bagging about to start very soon.

[rutter] 21/7/2020 12:28

I have asked for the exact production numbers for AGM questions

[togglebrush] 21/7/2020 12:04

Yes X2...
median takes middle of sorted sample which ignores highest and lowest in 251 days
Averages includes all with highest and lowest which can distort values
'
Example of four successive days in 2014

07 Jul 2014_______735,470
08 Jul 2014_______109,308
09 Jul 2014____57,931,623 … a BNZ update day
10 Jul 2014____10,858,991
'
Using Averages for years around 2014 gives

2013_________714,896
2014_______3,135,818
2015 ______1,271,558

[xclusive2] 21/7/2020 11:51

Thanks Toggle. Not questioning your data, more ADVFN. Just to take 2014 as the most volatile year, i recall there were several days that the volume exceeded 25m and above 50m i seem to recall so it would make a mockery of the 1.054m number ?

Data aside, sentiment on it's arze and only one thing changes that, some really positive news and an ongoing stream of it from now onwards .

[togglebrush] 21/7/2020 11:25

FWTW for those more interested in trading
these are Annual Daily Price indicators for RXP and CASP
based on ADVFN data and calculated OHLC values:-

Year____Open____High____Low____Close
‘
2009____3.38____14.25____2.38____9.25
2010____8.88____12.25____3.88____5.88
2011____5.88____13.25____2.63____3.88
2012____4.00_____6.38____2.13____2.25
2013____2.13_____6.38____2.13____4.50____KO becomes CEO
2014____4.38____25.25____3.88____9.50
2015____9.13____18.13____5.75____8.63
2016____9.25____13.13____6.50___10.50
2017___10.63____17.13____6.75___10.88____RXP becomes CASP
2018___10.13____14.00____5.70____7.25
2019____7.25____14.50____4.20____7.80
2020____8.75____11.63____2.35____3.30____to date 17 July 2020
'
E&OE
'____________make of it what you will

[togglebrush] 21/7/2020 10:33

FWTW these are Annual Daily trading indicators for RXP and CASP
Median is used which is the middle of a sorted sample
except for turnover which is Median price times median volume

Year____Price_A________Volume_B_______Turnover A x B
'
2009____9.0000_________994,604__________£89,514
2010____7.3750_________553,985 _________£40,856
2011____4.1250_________447,887 _________£18,475
2012____3.2500_________368,139 _________£11,965
2013____4.1250_________275,823 _________£11,378____KO becomes CEO
2014____5.5000_______1,054,913 _________£58,020
2015___10.2500_________872,739 _________£89,456
2016____9.8750_________533,252 _________£52,659
2017____9.6250_________442,613 _________£42,601____RXP becomes CASP
2018____9.6450_________436,786 _________£42,128
2019____9.1250_________897,151__________£81,865
2020____4.2625_______1,440,928 _________£61,420____to date 17 July 2020
'
E&OE
'____________make of it what you will

[xclusive2] 21/7/2020 10:17

Well i know 5 investors that hold 15m between them so not small holdings so you're probably right and there'll be others holding seven figures plus. The Kazakhs have diluted PIs with the asset acquisition strategy and they only make money now if they can sell the stock, they can't and they are very unlikely to take it Private.

MJF numbers need to be positive and clear. It would be good to get a list of the wells and monthly production from each of them, maybe that's another question for the AGM session, i've sent in too many already so maybe somebody else could pick that up.

If investors can see the well performance, they can cut through the obfuscation and see the depletion rates, how the workovers are doing, effective or not. If investors can see that the likely outcome is 24 wells at a 300 bopd average and can be delivered for the licence term ? What are the depletion rates or will they sustain production at 7000 bopd with regular workovers.

Yelemes will add 300 bopd, 151 and 152 will add 600bopd+ and there's 14 or so to drill in 2021 forwards, maybe a couple more this year if oil price holds up.

Note even considering the deeps but we'll get to a conclusion there soon, they have to prove at least one up after sinking $60m+. If/when they do, the hope and hype factor kicks in.

6p+ ? it will break back into double figures easily with the right news and they will have enough operational activity ongoing providing oil continues trend north.

I'm tempted to add more but i've got far to many and i'm waiting to see exactly where we are with next news and AGM feedback.

[roy1982] 21/7/2020 10:15

dodo petroleum

[dhb368] 21/7/2020 10:00

You are probably right Smarty, fewer PIs with larger holdings.

Less stock available for when (if) the traders arrive! I still think that there will be some churn @ 6p, but it wont take much to get there and quickly on to 8-9p if the move is based upon actual news.

[xclusive2] 21/7/2020 09:50

One thing for sure, this must be one of the most bombed out stocks on AIM. The traded volume this year has been the lowest i can remember and i'd love to see the share register outside of the Kazakh ownership. The number of PIs must be far less as they are the ones that have dictated share price movement historically and that regular daily trading has almost disappeared.

Good news is needed to inject life into a company that most investors are steering clear of. The lost trust needs to be restored and that will only come with good news and the removal of Carverspeak.

Meanwhile oil is steadily moving north, through $44 and the highest since the crash. S

Smarty

[xclusive2] 20/7/2020 20:43

.....lol, need another fin or was that gin ?

[rutter] 20/7/2020 20:31

" The tint of the litter" and " this fog will have its day" Stanley Umwin lol

[xclusive2] 20/7/2020 19:55

My TXP and JAY moving up nicely BUT they're much smaller sums sadly. The tint of the litter is Casper and about time that changed. Anything in Pharma is flying especially linked to Covid and hindsight a loverly thing.Clive, tone to deliver sir and confirm that even this fog will have its day !

[maxim1999] 20/7/2020 16:32

Excellent post.

[rutter] 20/7/2020 14:57

As despondent as we all may be , I'm sure if we were to sit with the inner circle of four and hear the truth of what's going on with Casp , we'd perhaps see that the wait is worthwhile. We may have our TILS moment yet. Thanks for your upbeat posts x2 and others

[hallow] 20/7/2020 13:02

Multi bagging to start any moment, minute, hour, day, week, month, year, decade, century, millennium, or any time you can think of.

Exciting times ???????????

Is it really. !!!

[xclusive2] 20/7/2020 10:50

Rutter,

I know what the strategy should be from a PIs perspective, deliver shareholder value ! deliver the 2017 IP that was hugely bullish and was all about getting production to 10000 bopd in short order and acquiring assets as part of that strategy.

I know what i don't want it to be ie asset acquisition at a low share price and horrendous dilution. The only way that happens is if it's all a crock of shoite and KO and co will milk it for what they can. If they dumped more assets in at this level, they get considerably more shares and they're building their wealth providing share price doesn't tank. A company with a huge market cap, full of worthless assets and no production but that's not how they get rich, that's a lifestyle business.

They acquired the barge @ 12p, if they wanted to shaft the retail community, they could've done that deal at a far lower price. They have to get production up otherwise they start banging heads with the Tokayev regime as they're not contributing to the state revenues. They already have the BNG licence misunderstanding to sort out so they have to be on the right side of the authorities. It took them an age to get the MJF licence and it would have been a far quicker process under Nazabayev.

Much that they've added the rigs, 3AB and the barge, they have to be very careful they don't bite the hand that feeds. Many peeps are stating that they'll continue to bulid m/cap by asset build but i don't believe that happens at low share price as the authorities could plug in somebody that can deliver the goods. Kazakhstan is corrupt but there are far bigger players with larger brown envelopes if KO and team don't start delivering, they'll be heading down the same road as MXP if they're not careful.

Their strategy is to build production and by doing so, they build their wealth. Every penny to the Oraziman clan is worth huge sums and they get their real wealth from driving up revenues, good for them and the State.

On paper this is hugely oversold but as we can all see, the retail interest is negligible and either all spent out or lost faith, probably a bit of both. They won't dump their salary sacrifice shares without crashing the price so they need to issue some good news, i believe they do.

Forgot to add that the KO clan will have the 'whitewash' scenario to deal with if share ownership too high.

[hallow] 20/7/2020 09:59

Which is it then Clive, give us a clue.


1/. What is the absurdly high share price takeover you are demanding to be taken
over.

or

2/. Tell us long suffering shareholders how much oil are you sitting on