Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 26/6/2020 12:06

Oh dear Jonny, positive as ever.

[ngms27] 26/6/2020 12:03

Another one going down the pan

[maxim1999] 26/6/2020 11:20

Must admit I am surprised that after all these years of being invested I am surprised about the price action.Yesterday's purchase . Looked shrewd for as look at it took to get a confirmation of the bargain.Exciting times .

[konil] 26/6/2020 10:46

ar note was unembellished with bs - that's a good thing.

the good stuff stops there, seems to have been no/little progress on the 'covid related slow and steady' ops front. perhaps they have been hit hard with cv and crews are reduced but they should state that even at risk of spooking the market.

surprised cashflow is such an issue, low op yes, but they were managing at local prices before and they have more production now. yes, short term pain with going to export and delay in receipts, but that was last year and the sense from the ar is they have absolutely no room for manouevre and slightest blip will derail. willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on the cash situ - but cannot fathom the years of op disappointments.

not selling, but i fear we may see sub 2p. don't trust these prices, feel its a 'false' level and market can't decide whether to take it up or down.

bottom drawer stuff for now, until they deliver a commercial deep.

[xclusive2] 26/6/2020 10:15

Peeps exiting or our Kazakh pal still selling. As long as it's not KO freeing up cash to lend back to the company to keep it going.Assumptions / factsOil prices are at a level that Caspian can run their business and meet operational commitments although negotiations ongoing re flexing those arrangements.Production levels will increase at MJF at c 300bopd average per well. I well per month from here until end 2021 should see completion of FDP and daily production levels of 7000bopdDeeps - not a good story to date but they have flowed oil for short periods. Oil is there and if you assume 1500bopd for 2 out of the 4 drilled to date, production could be 10kbopdThose 3 assumptions are highly possible, the deeps obviously being the challenge. MJF cash gives them options and if average oil prices are c$55 as per analyst revised forecasts, maybe they spud the 3ab well, run with A9 with new contractor. Maybe the oil industry get back to exploration and the barge is in demand.One thing I do know, if oil stays above $40 , this is a steal at this level. Each to their own and maybe I'm misguided by sticking with this but I'm adding as opposed to selling. Let's hope there's no hidden agenda.

[hyway2] 26/6/2020 03:16

Well it seems Flawless kicks did indeed offload his circa 3million shares after all he preached

[dhb368] 25/6/2020 18:04

Smarty, using the Chinese to drill one deep was a poor decision, drilling another three using a similar approach and the same service company was just negligent.

As was suggested back then, if we had gone with the likes of Schlumberger who knows where we would be know. Buy cheap, buy twice does not come close as we have bought 7 times and still dont have a working deep.

There are many good CEOs out there on a lot less than CC that would not have made those decisions. There is a reason that he is still in position, but I have no idea what it is.

I made a small addition today because overall I thought that the financials were better than I had expected, except the $10 oil, and 151 and 152 will be positive in the short term even if A5 has been pushed back a few months.

When CC announced that they had prepared 8 pads to allow for drilling to continue on MJF throughout the winter it was missed by most here that he meant this coming winter, not last. So we could actually be at 14 wells, 5000bopd @ $60+ oil by next March.
Maybe just maybe :)

[rutter] 25/6/2020 18:01

Good point X2

[xclusive2] 25/6/2020 17:45

Rutter,

Do you really buy the Kazakh and eastern bloc countries communication ? Probably less truthful than Cjina and N Korea !

[xclusive2] 25/6/2020 17:45

Rutter,

Do you really buy the Kazakh and eastern bloc countries communication ? Probably less truthful than Cjina and N Korea !

[rutter] 25/6/2020 17:06

I don't buy the ' COVID' excuse. There have been a total of 136 deaths out of a population of 18.25 million in Kaz. Since the last op update when they said that ops would continue on a controlled basis there's no news of any progress at all. We should be told where 151 depth is for starters I'll hang in as most of you all are and hope for a surprise A5 update before Christmas

[xclusive2] 25/6/2020 16:54

I won't defend them Roy as their operational progress over 13 years is shocking. They have had some good wins over the years to ensure that the business continued where many failed.

- Galaz sale
- MJF
- Production licence

The worst bit is that we've had to listen to Carverspeak for too many years and the constant obfuscation or should i call that downright lying.

I stay with it until i see A5 deliver or P&A'd, maybe our own Jonny T was right 4 years ago.

One thing i do know, oil prices will edge closer to $50 in Q3 and our Casper should get 151 and 152 over the line and we'll know on A5 once and for all as it won't be worth throwing cash at if they can't get it done. MJF makes money, no going concern risk and upside is inevitable for those who like to listen to jam tomorrow stories !

[roy1982] 25/6/2020 16:25

x2
THE PROBLEM IS THE TRAIN NEVER LEAVES THE STATION,they now tell us they must conserve cash and how do we do that they buy a boat that no one has hired for 2yrs and its only costing us 100k a month in mooring fees. PRUDENCE PERSONIFIED

[xclusive2] 25/6/2020 14:56

Roy,

I'd agree with you on the non exciting times but the m/cap has increased by 10% !!



M/cap up at the cost of dilution. Not entirely correct as they now own 100% as opposed to the previous 54%.

Peeps leaving the station and others getting onboard.

[xclusive2] 25/6/2020 12:58

Only thing that's changed = Covid 19. No bad news as far as i can see as nothing has happened. The only negative from today imo, commentary less bullish on the deeps.

Going concern info has to be published especially as many company balance sheets will be decimated and Auditors are being over sensitive, that's my current experience !

M/Cap £70m with MJF, 3AB, Barge, drilling rigs and A block. The only way we lose money from current levels is if MJF is a complete crock and CV wave 21 destroys oil demand for an extended period. Can't say about the latter but providing it doesn't happen, we all make money from here and sentiment improves as monthly production increases and maybe the jam tomorrow deep will happen at some stage.

[maxim1999] 25/6/2020 12:54

Well done Toon !! I vowed to not buy more as I have enough but I really do think this the low!!News was so bland today that a half cup of full of increased production will see the share price jump. Let greed take over.

[hallow] 25/6/2020 12:51

It's a blood fest out there.


An occasion of extended or unrestrained violence and bloodshed.

[thetoonarmy2] 25/6/2020 12:21

Max me too mate picked another 500k see if it drops again think the mms doing the sreadbetters a favour drop the price shake them out maybe any large sellers as well they maybe expect a RNs next week with more update than today's.

[jtourer] 25/6/2020 12:10

Funny really what happened the Flawlesskicks and his 'CASP is brilliant can do know wrong will make you rich' posts ?????

[maxim1999] 25/6/2020 12:03

Just bought more !!!Am just reading the History of Long Term Capital. Page 1 says high convictions trades come right.Follow my lead.This is the low for the shares !

[dhb368] 25/6/2020 12:03

Not as bad as share price movement would suggest but I can understand some being frustrated enough to walk away.

For me the positives are;
Funding in place to drill 151 AND 152 and drilling ongoing
We are not paying for CE until after completion, which is yet to happen
KO and family still happy to provide working capital loans
Very low cost operator so at $40 oil CASP is sustainable
Acknowledgement that shtty RNS' with missing information -provoke suspicion- and a move to quarterly hopefully better written RNSs


Negatives
Worryingly this is the first time I am seeing this -
A condition of the licence upgrade is that an amount assessed by the regulatory authorities on award of the production licence becomes liable to be repaid quarterly over a 10 year period. We are challenging the amount assessed on the basis that first it has been incorrectly calculated and second that despite the MJF structure accounting for approximately only 1% of the BNG Contract Area it has been assessed to repay an amount equivalent to 100% what would be due for the BNG Contract Area as a whole if under a production licence. On the basis of advice received we believe the basis of the payments due will be reassessed in accordance with our own calculations.

From the accounts this is included as $27.4m ($684k/qtr for 10 years). This is the current amount of the liability which they are trying to reduce. Seems high at <>20% of total pre CV19 income from MJF (assuming $20 net/bbl)

Also;
Potential requirement for a deep drill at 802 in 2020
3A Best licence renewal due June 2020, drill required 2020. Do we lose it or get an extension?
We can only pay our bills if authorities defer 2020 obligations AND reduce $684k/qtr licence payments


SP will drift now until we get the likely positive 151 news in a month.