Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[davidblack] 25/10/2017 16:24

Well not quite a newcomer, I owned Roxi and Max a decade ago and exited on lack of delivery but have not paid any attention to it in years.

A friend reintroduced me to the idea following the recent drilling success and it looks like 10 years on the plan is finally coming together? So hence why I am a buyer though I think there is going to be a modest overhang once the lock in comes off. I know people tell you they are not going to sell but they do, lock ups are all the same. But the issue will pass.

[konil] 25/10/2017 16:07

db, are you a newcomer to this stock or lth?

[konil] 25/10/2017 16:06

thanks for getting back db. clearly no confusion with forward sales of oil!

[davidblack] 25/10/2017 15:17

konil, what I mean is someone who currently is selling in advance of receiving the shares out of the lock up escrow.

Sometimes people do this because they have to sell and want to get ahead of the crowd who may or may not be selling in December.

The reason I pointed this out is I have a recent experience of a widow selling shares following the death of her husband on a stock that had previously had a lock up. She was not to bothered as to the price, she just wanted to clean up the estate.

[hiddendepths] 25/10/2017 14:33

Double post

[zico01] 25/10/2017 14:33

They did not conduct a proper flow test from RNS : "on 21 October 2017 the well was opened up for clean-up purposes".

[hiddendepths] 25/10/2017 14:22

Topped up this morning and looking to add more this afternoon.

[konil] 25/10/2017 14:12

yes i understand forward contracts. i wondered whether there was some confusion in db's mind with forward sales of oil to the local traders.

imo forward contracts would not have an impact on the share price here unless they were done with mms as the counterparties.

[xclusive2] 25/10/2017 14:08

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward_contractDB has a point, just take advantage of the weakness, sit back and smile.Our M/cap compared to some of the BB fav's like UKOG, CERP, 88E etc, just makes me larf.Be greedy if you can as these situations don't present themselves too often.

[konil] 25/10/2017 13:59

please explain 'forward sales'.

[davidblack] 25/10/2017 13:31

Not looking to deramp but the selling may be coming from forward sales from the merger locked up people. No matter how good the results there are always a few people who need to sell after a lock up.

Just for disclosure I am currently on the bid here.

[xclusive2] 25/10/2017 13:06

Yep, you could put the bear spin on it re our Crive Kleiber.The news is 'fake news' allowing Kazakhs and chums to sell into the spike knowing that there are problems again. Also it's a valid point re the testing equipment, makes no sense.We can only go with what we know and on the face of it, it's great news. Even without A5, we should be at this price but the market is completely discounting it. I've sold some of my SXX down to buy more here as this really is an opportunity too good to miss.

[bad gateway] 25/10/2017 12:59

You're not wrong about clives rep but that wasn't the flowtest was it? Read to me like they were running round in exciteable circles whilst getting this flow during clean up ops and the test is yet to come?

[konil] 25/10/2017 12:44

yes, that's c.£50m p.a. (and i mean £ not $) after allowing for 80% to export. that will enable a lot of self funded drilling.

company has no debt to speak of.

today's mkt cap c.£212m.

and if they bring another of the already drilled deeps onto production, it could be £75m p.a.

add in some more shallow successes, say further 1000bopd, and it could be £82m p.a.

if they bring both remaining currently drilled deeps in, perhaps £110m p.a.

[xclusive2] 25/10/2017 12:37

70% in favour of buys both in volume and no of trades ? Must have a seller cashing up and we'll see the larger sell trades at end of okay probably.

[xclusive2] 25/10/2017 12:12

1500 ? As Dipla states, likely to be nearer 7500 if 145 and 146 are 500bopd an A5 at 3500.Not sure how long it will take to get A5 online but the oil will be stored and transported until pipeline agreement sorted. 7500 at C $28 net to Casper as of July next year. Clive stated $18 was the current return and another $10 at export rates. All sold in $ v Tenge so the currency benefit for CASP is good news and that combined with cheaper OPEX costs means that this is one of the cheapest places in the world to operate.Penny will drop soon.

[sue999] 25/10/2017 12:11

so 3435+3500 =6935 BPD is worth 90 million USD to CASP from next June.

[dipla] 25/10/2017 11:44

should be hitting over 7.5k

[hiddendepths] 25/10/2017 11:41

harrissen - from the interims - Aggregate shallow `production is running at the rate of approximately 3,434 bopd

[hiddendepths] 25/10/2017 11:25

Stale bulls cleared out as expected. In this market good news on ANY stock (especially oil and mining) is greeted by excited buying and heavy selling so there is no immediate follow-through of the mark-up.

But the game has changed here for sure and I think we'll steadily get noticed. It was pointed out to me that Malcy doesn't talk about CASP so I've emailed him. I have no idea whether he'll pay any attention.

[timberwolf3] 25/10/2017 11:24

I added circa 125k this morning, i know i have said in the past that i was way overweight here but this is to good an opportunity to miss.

[xclusive2] 25/10/2017 11:05

K,All the LTH's know that the share price is ludicrous and hopefully most can take advantage. If we're being honest, we can all state the positive case here but we'll also know the current uncertainties ie- who's selling as the story is so positive and the free float is not huge. I can understand the odd stale bull or the traders that have got in pre rise but the sizes of the sell trades have been the biggest as one offs ? You could make the case that it's not a slam dunk yet or maybe Kuat or his on concert lady friend has cashed a few in to free up some cash but I don't buy that.Our Clive can't afford any more false dawns and the A5 consistent flow test will dispel all concerns and this will fly. Smarty