Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[konil] 11/10/2017 12:14

maxim, your comments indicate you may be thinking about a potential long game here. its a difficult one to guage given the numerous different ways it could go.

fwiw imo it will be spiky because of the long frustrating ride to date and the likelihood of many stale bulls exiting at the first opportunity, at their individual exit prices. possibly once it clears the all time high the ride may be a little less rollercoaster.

i've said before and feel its worth repeating - the potential upside is hugely unappreciated by most, possibly even some of the bulls here, that is assuming we get deep success, but the full impact on the share price could take a long time to come about, maybe 2 to 3 years??

i dont know if i will have the patience or nerve to hold for that long. one key aspect i will be looking for is conversion of deep hits to sustainable production, rather than the litany of operational mishaps that have been served up on all 3 deep hits so far!

of course without the deeps its not a disaster at these low levels given the shallow business but its a much duller story.

[maxim1999] 11/10/2017 11:13

I only hold CASP but found myself looking at the UKOG chart. I don't know the story at all but the chart paints a picture. I assume there the news was good and then got superseded by disappointment?!I hope with Caspian we build firm base and the shares just keep drifting higher!! As opposed to spiking we all hold for the long term ride, but then collapses and we all wish we had got out earlier .

[konil] 11/10/2017 09:35

the activity and the share price have been eerily becalmed recently. there is clearly no hype around this and no leaks, good or bad, else there would have been movement. hoping for the best but braced for the worst.

[konil] 11/10/2017 09:32

smarty, it depends on whether they will announce a hit straight away or wait until initial flow tests completed.

[konil] 11/10/2017 09:29

steve, its a pity they dont respond to questions but in general i have long given up on contacting companies as they either dont respond or say nothing in many words or provide doublespeak.

the number i came up with was $40m net of taxes, not £40m. the wording led me to assume a $10/b uplift averaged across all production (20% local and 80% export), after tax but not after costs, so c.$27.50/b on say 4000bopd once existing wells are up to speed. this should increase significantly with further shallow success, which is relatively low cost per drill and also relatively quick to achieve.

of course i'm hoping the 3 deep wells will overshadow all this in the next 6 months or so, starting with a5 in the next few days/weeks.

[xclusive2] 11/10/2017 07:22

Good ole Lenigas's legacy lives on. Get in, dilute to death, pump, then dump, rinse and repeat. Does it with everything and UKOG will be the next one and LGO or CERP as its called today is on a run after being diluted by a factor of 20:1 last year. People will never learn !!

[xclusive2] 11/10/2017 07:03

The wait goes on and if no update tomorrow, then early next. If it's poor, probably be Friday !

[steveh8] 10/10/2017 23:07

Konil,

The interims RNS stated the following about the uplift:

Based on current world prices we would increase the net price received after all applicable taxes and charges by up to £10 per barrel on any production sold under a full production licence.

I sent them an email asking if it should have been $ as opposed to £ but got no response. I was hoping the uplift would have been more but even at $26 - $29 dollars a barrel based on current shallow production would equate to £40m per annum

[konil] 10/10/2017 22:27

imo td on fri, unless they have speeded up since last update. would be great to have an early surprise for once.

[xclusive2] 10/10/2017 20:48

Nosey buying eh ? Not a leaky ship anymore apart from Toggles Kazakhs with oily boots ?

[timberwolf3] 10/10/2017 20:33

Would be nice, but would of thought we would of seen some ITK buying.

[xclusive2] 10/10/2017 20:20

News tomorrow anyone ?

[roy1982] 10/10/2017 19:49

amen to that

[konil] 10/10/2017 17:55

its very expensive stuff, i use it to overcome years and years and years of despair and despondency from being invested here. :~(

[roy1982] 10/10/2017 17:11

konil
Whatever your smoking I want some.

[konil] 10/10/2017 14:46

perhaps the 2nd oct rns was clive's way of giving the long suffering lth's here a nod to the wise, ok that's extremely naive and even more unlikely, but i can dream!

[konil] 10/10/2017 14:38

one thing i wasn't sure about but glossed over in my mind when the whi note was released, is the figure for uplift in revenues. the whi note states...

"...the company is still targeting a mid-2018 transition from test production to
commercial production, which will translate to a $10/b uplift in revenue (net of tax implications) according to the company, because the company will be able to sell into the international market."

they are selling locally at $16-$19/b, export prices would fetch c.$45/b on 80% of production. an uplift of $10/b seems low, but probably due to the tax implications as mentioned in the write-up. harsh, seeing that before tax revenue uplift on 80% of production will be c.$26/b. somewhat of a pity.

anyway, assuming the $10/b factors in the mix of local and export sales, then at say 4000bopd, that would be c.$40m p.a. net of tax. a nice chunk of change given that its based on early stage shallow success with hopefully much more shallow production to come from wells which cost comparatively little to drill.

any deep success will supercharge that revenue number, but more importantly will dispel the uncertainties over bng deep commercialisation and also set the stage for large reserve updates in due course.

everything crossed now for the a5 result.

[xclusive2] 10/10/2017 14:22

Timber,It makes zero difference how this is marketed and only deep success is will get us on various radars inc the larger funds. A better bet than most AIM plays but certainly unloved and maybe the ROXI/CASP transition was not managed well enough and punters don't know who Casper are, probably a good thing especially as good news may not get the initial hike and enable you to buy on the cheap.

[timberwolf3] 10/10/2017 12:31

Just a reminder WHIreland morning comment from 2/3 weeks ago;

Caspian Sunrise has announced that its shallow production is running at a rate of
approximately 3,434 b/d with the MJF structure contributing 3,220 b/d. The
implication is that the five producing wells in the structure are each averaging
680b/d, significantly higher than we had expected and showing lower declines than
we had anticipated. We would like better to understand this change before
remodelling the field and updating our target price upwards (from 20.1p/sh). The
company has indicated that income from test production is now sufficient to cover
all G&A and shallow drilling costs.
The company stated that the sidetrack at the A5 well is drilling steadily ahead. This well
will, if successful, be transformative for the company. We estimate the Airshagyl structure
being tested by the well has a base case recoverable resource of 41.1 mmb equating to a
value of $232.9m. However, success in the over-pressured reservoir has been elusive in
terms of establishing a stable production rate of oil. The sidetrack is currently 250m away
from targeted depth.
Revenue of $2.7m in the half year was essentially equal to the cost of sales, generating a
negligible operating loss of -£0.0m. The reported operating loss was -£1.4 after G&A
costs.
Pursuant to the merger with Baverstock and the associated financial restructuring, the
company has a clean balance sheet, with limited financial debt of £0.7m. The company
has minimal cash of £0.3m having invested $4.9m in the half year. Access to capital would
not be problematic via trade credit or financial debt, in our opinion.
Almost every time we write on the MJF structure we are surprised positively. Today’s
announcement is really an incredible milestone. It is extraordinary that five wells costing
between $1.5m and $2.0m have each delivered over 3,000 b/d of stable oil flow showing
modest if any declines. This is one of the most significant developments yet for the field
and we must now review our estimates. As a reminder, we had estimated that the field
had a gross resource scale of 22.3mmb equating to a value of $149m or 6.9 p/sh, which is
now due a material upward revision. For perspective, we believe that the current share
price of 7p creates an attractive buying opportunity given Caspian offers both value
support and a catalyst-rich growth outlook.
Importantly, the company is still targeting a mid-2018 transition from test production to
commercial production, which will translate to a $10/b uplift in revenue (net of tax
implications) according to the company, because the company will be able to sell into the
international market. It is currently receiving domestic pricing of $16-19/b so the
anticipated uplift will be material and allow for accelerated self-funded growth of the MJF
structure.
We maintain our BUY recommendation.

[xclusive2] 10/10/2017 08:40

....lol If it's a bad result then it will probably be down to drilling probs v no commercial oil.If it was poor then the retrace will not be huge but will present another opportunity for those who want to trade it. Sp is underpinned and the shallows CPR will show that but we all need the first deep to get this new part of the journey kicked off in style !

[timberwolf3] 10/10/2017 08:06

I'm strapped in Smarty, thing is what am i strapped into, Rocket or diving bell :)

[xclusive2] 10/10/2017 07:43

Carver stated that 'all the indicators are positive to date'.The butane gas shows etc are all being analysed as they progress and i believe we get our result providing no more drilling issues.Brace yourselves !!!!!!!!!!

[xclusive2] 10/10/2017 07:23

Dipla,If you read how sidetracking is done, it's very complicated and can be a very slow process dependant on rock formation. Obtaining success is not easy as the same principles apply ie use of casing, drilling fluids etc.I expect them to be at TD now if they continued at the previous rate but this is complex stuff. Not long to see if it was successful or not.

[dipla] 10/10/2017 06:36

90 metres should have been done by now no?

[roy1982] 09/10/2017 17:29

you can't blame punters for being wary when you consider carvers track record