Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[hallow] 25/10/2017 09:54

maxim

900,000 bought
500,000 sold

gap of approx 400,000 doesn't make a lot of sense does it.

[maxim1999] 25/10/2017 09:34

Extraordinary share price performance bearing in mind the news. I can only imagine the local holders are taking advantage of the spike in liquidity to sell down. Even so disappointing. Not sure what news we need to sustain the shares at a higher level rather than rally and drift back .

[bullinachinashop3] 25/10/2017 09:33

any idea how long the High Pressure gear will take to arrive on site?

[xclusive2] 25/10/2017 09:31

We all expected to see good news post the Baverstock merger and it's happening. I can't understand why they didn't have the high pressure testing equipment on site and waiting for its arrival is frustrating as they knew it was an essential piece of kit but we're all used to this after many years of frustration. Be good to see if the rig is onsite at A6 and whether drilling pipes have been transferred. Good news is that we're going to receive regular updates going forward as 4 projects on the go.People will look back on this time and ask themselves why didn't I add more ? This is a good thing but unloved at this juncture, that will soon change.

[bullinachinashop3] 25/10/2017 09:14

good to have some new faces on the board, your input is welcome - there is a lot of stale bulls on here, we have known the potential here for years , and believe it is now coming to fruition...

[pre] 25/10/2017 09:09

Let's be realistic...they've just announced 3500 bopd...they've hit the deeps with light high quality oil in Kazakhstan rich oil fields....as exclusive2 & K have pointed out in their very informative posts...the upside is very significant...dyor etc.

[unconscious] 25/10/2017 09:06

So in effect you're saying you believe this may dropped to 7.25p as that's where your final 50,000 share purchase is planned?

[sandy12345] 25/10/2017 08:41

I decided for every 1p that the price is falling from 14.25p (my entry point) I will be buying 50000 shares up to a max of 400000. So far I have accumulated 100000. Looking for 24p within 30 days at which point I will sell half of my holdings.

[xclusive2] 25/10/2017 08:39

Yep, that sums it up. Agree that many have missed the initial rise but this has been so underdone and I didn't believe that peeps could buy in at this level ! All I can say is that my adding was premature but after 10 years, I'm not going anywhere soon and a couple of pence either way is not going to matter a jot.

[harrissen] 25/10/2017 08:34

The usual collection of traders are back deramping having either missed the boat or have sold out on the spike and want to get back in on the cheap.
Ireland broker put a 28p tag on it up from 22p and the forecast flow rate of 2000bpd is up by nearly double that at 3500bpd this is being sold locally and transported by truck at $16 a barrel CASP are netting about $13 profit from this arrangement and will get their permit to sell on the open market early 2018.
And some of the bods on here are expecting to get back in at 10P.? No chance!


Caspian Sunrise soars after delivering long awaited deep well success

09:51 23 Oct 2017

The deep A5 well tested at a rate of 3,500 bopd before the programme was paused to bring in high pressure equipment

onshore drilling operation

The AIM-quoted share shot up around 60% in Monday morning’s deal, changing hands above 14p.

With news from the deep A5 well in Kazakhstan, Caspian Sunrise Plc (LON:CASP) on Monday delivered the result that investors "have been waiting for" that’s according to stockbroker WH Ireland.

Caspian Sunrise said in a statement that the A5 well had yielded a rate of 3,500 barrels of oil per day in testing. The well was tested for 4 hours before being shut-in pending further testing with high-pressure equipment.


READ: Kazakhstan-focused oilfield developer Caspian Sunrise may have discovered third shallow oil structure

The AIM-quoted share shot up around 60% at just over 14p in Monday morning deals.

WH Ireland analyst Brendan Long, in a note, highlighted that pressure dynamics information suggests ‘excellent fluid communication’ between the A5 well and a ‘highly productive reservoir’.

“This is the moment we were waiting for and the production result materially exceeds the success case guidance of 2,000 b/d previously provided by the company,” Long said.

READ: Kazakhstan-focused oiler Caspian Sunrise is sitting on "something special", says chairman

He added: “Since relaunching itself under the name Caspian Sunrise, pursuant to a merger with Baverstock to consolidate a 99% operated interest in the BNG licence, the company has been on a tremendous growth trajectory in terms of the creation of shareholder value.”

WH Ireland this morning repeated a ‘buy’ recommendation and upgraded its price target to 28.6p per share from 22.2p, implying almost further 100% upside to Monday’s newly elevated price of around 14p.

[xclusive2] 25/10/2017 08:29

Well, the market either doesn't get it or doesn't believe our Clive.Obviously want confirmation that A5 is the real thing . Over to you Mr Carver to bring in positive updates over the final quarter.

[davidblack] 24/10/2017 21:56

When do we expect the testing to be completed?

Oh and what do people expect as to a target value in 12 months time?

I am looking to add a few but trying to work out if 50p is a viable 24 month target based on the deep targets.

[control1] 24/10/2017 20:40

Smarty, it virtually doubled on the news yesterday so you can't say it wasn't hot... for a short period anyway (about as long as the flow test)

I have to admit that after repeatedly losing money on T20's on many false dawns over the years, I bought some first thing and cashed out in the very narrow window at just over 17p for a 60%+ profit in minutes. Call me a trader if you like but I figure Kleiber owed me that much at least...

As you say, people are wary until they see a longer term flow test but if they do get this flowing after 3 years, plus bring at least one of the other deeps on line, then the future is indeed bright...

p.s. ...? - what happened to A7....???!

p.p.s. wonder if Kleiber can repeat the feat soon over at AST (where I also have an interest)...

[togglebrush] 24/10/2017 16:48

FWIW
'
After the mega trading volumes of yesterday today is returning to something like expected post-merger volumes. Today - 221 trades and 7.05 million volume.
'
Before the merger I scaled up the daily volume trading data from Roxi with additional Baverstoke data. They were posted on this BB before June 1st. The point being that today’s trading volume of 281 and 7.05 million would fit the stats for around a top one in a hundred trading day (1 in 100 or 6.89 million). A busy day (Q3) starts at 1.6 million and expected median would be around 0.9 million. But we will see how figures work out in reality.

[xclusive2] 24/10/2017 16:16

Agree K, meant to say they do have to drill as opposed to don't. Peeps have got this wrong and the value will be realised soon enough. I have too many now and overweight is an understatement but that's how I like to roll pardon the pun.

[konil] 24/10/2017 16:10

smarty, re. post 1887, i believe they do have to at least start drilling 2 more deeps prior to june 2018 to meet licence commitments.

from the interims...
"We have the obligation to drill a deep well, A8, as part of our existing work programme commitments at BNG, which we plan to spud in the New Year, subject to prevailing weather conditions. We expect the costs of this deep well to be no greater than $10 million and plan to fund it from a combination of:
· Surplus income from the production from our shallow wells
· Income from any of our current deep wells coming on stream before the completion of drilling
· Advances from local oil traders
· Loans from industry participants"


"We have yet to make a decision about the timing of a further deep well 802."


however, its quite a scoop for a small outfit like casp to be debt free at this stage (bar some forward selling to local oil traders) and even more unusual to be able to self fund deep drilling.

the story here was strong even before a5 flowed.

and all the while the shallow programme keeps adding to production with ultra-quick payback on new wells.

and there are 2 more deeps, a6/801, already drilled, with proven oil, waiting for remedial works to enable flow testing.

then there will be 2 new deeps a8 and 802.

then in june the revenues get an upward step change with export sales.

next 12 months will be very exciting to put it mildly!

[xclusive2] 24/10/2017 15:40

If you wanted to be bearish, there have been some big sells and the largest individual trades have been sells. There aren't many large PI holders and the free float is not huge so who's selling ? Dosbol ? You could paint the picture that one of the primary holders is selling out, helped by the A5 initial news. You could also make a case that this was not needed as they need to have a 30 day flow test.I've been here long enough to translate Carverspeak but sometimes you just have to go with it.

[xclusive2] 24/10/2017 15:14

Euclid,

No unnecessary dilution. If you were Kuat Oraziman, why would you want to dilute your stake unnecessarily ?

They're forward selling the oil at domestic tariff and all OPEX covered. They do need to drill another deep I believe pre licence renewal but I believe KO can dip into the extra X million paper profit rather than dilute his stake-holding. At some juncture they will need bigger investors on board, maybe a farm in partner etc. Also may need cash for any new acreage they could acquire but dilution at this juncture not on the table.

Back to 10p, nope, not unless there's an organised tree shake and if that happens, fill yet boots, very unlikely imo.

Smarty

[euclid5] 24/10/2017 14:47

Good post

WH Ireland placed 33p & 90p NPV's on the shallow & deeper wells - so if this retraces to 10p- 12p an excellent entry price for the risk/ reward upside

Plus no placings / cash calls anticipated!, we hope anyway

[zico01] 24/10/2017 14:46

There is very likelihood that deep well A5 will flow in excess of 3500 BOPD in which case the price will flow past 20p. Eagerly awaiting the next RNS. They will also be flow testing the other 2 deep wells A6 and 801.

[xclusive2] 24/10/2017 14:38

K,

As i said earlier, it's as if the market isn't believing the A5 communication and that has given the opp to load up or enter the game cheaply. WHI have re-rated the stock to 28p to factor in Ayrshagyl wells only ie A5/A6 and the offset wells to appraise the find. No accounting for 801 on Yelemes block, the CPR upgrade on MJF structure and any other targets on their territory. They've also undercalled it, down to the difficulties of assessing the seismic below the salt layer.

The market wants connfirmation that A5 continues to flow unaided as per Carver's positive statement below.

'The long sought after prize of a deep well flowing has now been achieved.

The volumes of high quality oil already recovered under natural pressure from the well indicates the huge potential of the deep horizons at BNG.

We continue to work to bring deep Wells A6 and 801 into production and look forward to providing further updates on Deep Well A5 in due course."

Providing the above is qualified then this is off to the races and there will be plent of newsflow to increase interest in the stock.

Hidden Depths also alluded to possible new territory acquisition, even MXP's acreage being up for grabs ? The old ADA block and all it's professed riches ! The Kazakhs are going to want successful partners to work with to generate income for the country and i believe our Kazakh owners have enough influence to negotiate this.

Currently underpriced and A5 extended flow test will be the key that really unlocks this door. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

Smarty

[euclid5] 24/10/2017 14:03

The near 50% incrase is share price yesterday equated to a £123m increase in market capitalisation