Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[konil] 29/9/2017 10:06

agreed smarty, the activity seems to have died away. however if the share price holds at least it will be a higher base from which to start the surge in event of success at a5.

if say 3 bags, then from 6.5 is less than 20, from 8.5 is more than 25. no guidance or estimates intended, just an obvious observation, no use pretending there is any science in it or any way of deriving a valuation at this stage, any increase will only be on perception, sentiment and hype!

[xclusive2] 29/9/2017 09:17

Was hoping for lots of new players to be buying tickets for the Oktoberfest but obviously no confidence in our Mr C to deliver. I believe that last weeks rise was purely TA and some of those players are already gone and the rest will sell pre news.Hoping I'm wrong and all the shares have gone to a large player who's adding to or building a stake.Back to sleep for 2 weeks.

[1enigmatic] 29/9/2017 00:12

Hi guys it's me tier 1 banker out of work at the moment .Im posting over on LSE under a new name High IQ.I live in Woburn but can travel any leads give me a shout

[xclusive2] 28/9/2017 11:52

Toggle,My comment was tongue in cheek as I have no source. We know Dosbol had been selling but I have no idea who had been offloading. Could be PI's trading around the fringes but somebody is picking up the loose stock. Sellers are able to achieve the bid price and have been able to sell in volume.

[togglebrush] 28/9/2017 11:43

RE xclusive2 ... there is a restriction on merger shareholders disposals until six months are past. Your source must know a work around as Dosbol Zholdybayev has already been selling.
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Merger Circular 27 February 2017 extracts
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Baverstock and Vertom have agreed to enter into an orderly market agreement restricting any disposal of the Consideration Shares and Conversion Shares respectively for a six month period from the completion of the Merger. Transfers of Consideration Shares to the underlying Baverstock Quotaholders (or their nominees) are exempt provided the Baverstock Quotaholder enters into an orderly market agreement in like terms.
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“Baverstock Quotaholders” those persons beneficially entitled to, in aggregate, the whole of the issued quotas in the capital of Baverstock, being Kuat Oraziman, Dosbol Zholdybayev , Dae Han New Pharm and Cody Star Investment
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10. ORDERLY MARKET AGREEMENT
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Baverstock and Vertom have entered into an orderly market agreement with WH Ireland and the Company on 24 February 2017 pursuant to which Baverstock has undertaken to WH Ireland and to the Company that, subject to certain limited exceptions, it will not dispose of any of the Consideration Shares or Conversion Shares which are acquired pursuant to the Merger for a period of six months following Admission except through WH Ireland (or the broker to the Company for the time being), subject to market terms being offered for the carrying out of any such sale, and such broker may in its discretion, acting reasonably, refuse or impose restrictions with a view to maintaining an orderly market in the Ordinary Shares. During such orderly market period, Baverstock may only distribute the Consideration Shares held by it to the Baverstock Quotaholders (or their nominees), subject to such transferees entering into similar orderly market arrangements with the broker and the Company for the remainder of the period.
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The restrictions described in the foregoing paragraphs will not apply, inter alia, in the event of death of the relevant individual (if applicable), an intervening court order , a takeover becoming or being declared unconditional or the acceptance of an offer for the Company (for which the relevant Shareholder may give an irrevocable undertaking to accept).

[konil] 28/9/2017 11:35

would large holders be exiting/lightening at this stage with a5 round the corner?

with the promising outcomes here, possibly existing holders increasing, though not sure where large sells are coming from - i'd have expected lots of small sells from small holders and large consolidated buys.

whatever it is, clearly there is balance else it would be in freefall.

[xclusive2] 28/9/2017 11:22

Change of ownership happening. Probably Dogbologov selling and another interested party taking up the slack. Sp should be retracing so we must have a buyer balancing the books.

[xclusive2] 28/9/2017 09:29

Looking at 3 year chart, somebody commented that we've hit lower lies and lower highs, this isn't true. We've hit the 6p low 3 times and the high on each bounce was 18p, then 13p last year and we're yet to see what high we reach following last weeks retest of 6p. We are hitting lower highs and the trend is south but as we all know, the right news changes all that.The last announcement was missing the Carverspeak and I felt it was the most honest appraisal for some time. I believe Clive has got egg on his face following the beauty parade and needed to be very honest with the update to avoid anymore under delivery. They have stated that they can't say when deeps will flow but still hopeful for 2 with A5 being the first. Good news and we can enjoy the ride and hype the future, bad and we unable along until they work out how to find and deliver deep success.Smarty

[xclusive2] 27/9/2017 17:53

One decent buy and a rollover as per yesterday. T traders who can't afford to purchase the stock and playing with fire. Each to their own.

[konil] 27/9/2017 16:41

smarty, odd indeed, it even ticked up at eod.

[konil] 27/9/2017 16:38

toggle, have those 5 wells really delivered over 3000b/d each? we'd be at 15,000 b/d wouldn't we? i must be missing something (other than a companion for my brain cell).


edit: toggle, had a look at the whi note - in the intro they state... "the five producing wells in the structure are each averaging 680b/d"

the reference later in the note to each producing 3000b/d is clearly a typo.

[xclusive2] 27/9/2017 16:21

Maxim,Ask our resident analyst to do it for you -:)Et al, Very odd trading and I'm still waiting to see some large buys as I can't understand why we're holding up much that I'm very happy with it,

[togglebrush] 27/9/2017 14:28

Re Maxim1999
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WHI_research26Jun17_pdf has a useful matrix of risk by shallow and deep assets on page 2. You can access the research through company website link in this BB header. Then through Tab Investors, Tab Analyst and Research but you may have to register to get it. WH Ireland is the company broker and Brendan Long is the analyst.
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NEW RESEARCH paper 20 September 2017 on Interims, does not have that matrix
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Extract from NEW research, 20Sep17, which is WORTH A READ I marked the bold bits
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Almost every time we write on the MJF structure we are surprised positively. Today’s announcement is really an incredible milestone. It is extraordinary that five wells costing between $1.5m and $2.0m have each delivered over 3,000 b/d of stable oil flow showing modest if any declines. This is one of the most significant developments yet for the field and we must now review our estimate

[konil] 27/9/2017 13:52

because the big money is with the big finds, and as i understand it the big finds are in the deeps not shallows. they have already found 3 oil bearing columns in 3 deeps, that's a 100% success rate, so they won't let it go easily, there's almost certainly more to be had. i'd be surprised if oraz and satyl do not aspire to bringing in some deep wells, that will supercharge the share price and their personal fortunes.

mind you i'll be pleased if they can commercialise at least 1 of the 3 current finds! not long to wait for a5 outcome. i guess 6 or 7 weeks at the outside but hopefully much sooner.

[maxim1999] 27/9/2017 13:29

I think exactly can look at it like that. You take out the capex (assume no deep drilling out side what's mandatory currently ) , assume the shallow program adds to production ie cash flow neutral , leave in the opex and see what's left. If the current deeps fail why would management do more. Why not turn the co in to a yield play and not have the aggro of being an exploration co outside the shallow program?

[konil] 27/9/2017 13:06

maxim, i believe there is an online dcf calculator (actually probably a npv calculator) where you plug in the numbers such as costs, revenues, number of years, discount rate, etc. and it gives you the answer. haven't used it for some years, so don't know if website still exists. if i find it i'll let you know.

however, maybe its too soon to be looking at revenues like that? they help to fund further development and exploration and in event of significant find(s) company valuation will be driven by reserves which hopefully being large will outstrip their ability to maximise production at this early stage. just hypothesising.




meanwhile, the share price is holding steady after the recent rise, despite daily stats suggesting sells outweigh buys, whereas previously even small amounts of selling would see the share price drop. what gives? if there is a hoover as smarty suggests maybe we'll get a holdings notification? 3% of 1.7bn = 51m.

[maxim1999] 27/9/2017 12:35

We could help ourselves on the share valuation by looking at current production, assuming the current saleprice of oil for this year , then the export for next and do a DCF . Now some of the cash could be spent on the odd deep , but I am sure that any further shallow exploration would be value accretive. This would then give us a base case valuation as a income play / attractive acquisition target as a yield play . IE this must a strategic option by the co to just pay a dividend and would give this Board a base level we could think about buying at/ upto . Any of the more intellectually blessed here able to do a DCF in Excel ? Konil, Xclusive , Hallow , Toggle etc sorry if I missed other candidates.

[hallow] 27/9/2017 11:17

No operational update at the start of September, are big things just around the corner.

Whats going on.

[xclusive2] 27/9/2017 07:56

There's nothing to tell, the move was TA or just people taking a position to sell the A5 news.A5 is the key and they'd not reached the reservoir at 4200m as it commences at 4332m and had to complete in 2014 @ 4442m. I'm hoping that the sidetrack is progressing at a quicker pace and we will soon be into the oil bearing zone. I expect we get news w/c 9 or 16/10. It's all speculation until then.

[dipla] 26/9/2017 12:07

Seems to be holding, what caused the rise

[hallow] 26/9/2017 11:23

Come on Clive tell us what you've got.

[bullinachinashop3] 26/9/2017 10:37

buys starting to increase

[xclusive2] 25/9/2017 14:09

90:10 in favour of sells and hiding up remarkably well so I'd suggest we have a little buyer absorbing the sells and expect some more late reported trades.

[xclusive2] 25/9/2017 12:36

Not unexpected unfortunately as there was nothing to drive it apart from TA or unknown news such as a funding deal. Probably had an origami or macrame golden cross dojo appear and the signal triggered the TA brigade into action.A5 is now critical as the catalyst to real share price growth and that is circa weeks away if they can accelerate drilling as sub surface conditions become easier. Still undervalued by miles and maybe the market is realising it.Smarty