Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[maxim1999] 16/6/2024 13:00

Still unclear on the stock exchange rules for announcing update. With the swathe of drilling going on I assume they are more able to delay bad news , but where are on drilling success that could materially impact the price in a positive way?No news means no news or there is good news and they are able to delay the timing of release to suits their own ends?

[konil] 15/6/2024 10:44

spangle, thanks for the definitions. i'm being a bit slow on this one, are you saying the soviet system uses the word reserves therefore the rns is correct in using reserves but what it really means in western perspective is resources?

i read somewhere the soviet system uses geological modelling to define assets. if it is not based on actual flow test results then presumably (a) there is a lower level of confidence and (b) soviet 'reserves' broadly equate to western 'resources'?

as you know i have no oiler background, so please correct any of my errors in understanding.

[spangle93] 14/6/2024 22:09

Had a quick gander at Somm posts on LSE, as recommended by penrith (sorry for delay, Mrs S and I are abroad on holiday)

Some good content there, indeed, but I have to take issue with "For those who do not understand what C1 and C2 Reserves are these are simply Contingent and will eventually be moved over to 1P (PROVEN) and 2P (PROBABLE) Reserves."

The analogy is accurate from a western perspective, pretty much, in that contingent resources are those volumes that have been assessed as being, like reserves, economically recoverable once a contingent factor has been removed. That might be demonstration of funding, acquiring the rights to produce, etc...

However, the "C" in the Soviet system is quite different to contingent resources.

This is one source that describes it


Category C comes after Category A and B in terms of maturity of understanding of the oil reservoir.

However, Soviet category C is actually stronger than contingent, e.g.
"Explored reserves are represented by categories A, B, and C1; preliminary estimated reserves are represented by category C2; potential resources are
represented by category C3; and forecasted resources are represented by categories D1 and D2"

Note that reserves decrease in maturity through A, B, C1 and C2, but they are all classed as RESERVES. C3 and upwards remain resources.

C2 is equivalent to a P50 estimate, as per RNS "it is equally likely that actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater than or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves"

The company also uses the (ahem) reserved word "reserves" all through the RNS, not resources. No adviser would permit an incorrect use of reserves, and no competent person would sign off, if the definitions weren't strictly applied. It's not, for a change, Mr Carver randomly using an oilfield dictionary.

[konil] 14/6/2024 13:35

there are so many variables here across varied assets at different stages. as an outsider its impossible to know the status or the game plan.

then add in the lack of operational news, when so much is *supposedly* going on, and it just becomes a murky mess. i suspect this is exactly how the management want it to be for the time being.

today's rns is disappointing in the low numbers. the cpr has been based on estimates of localised oip. these are supposedly wells which are part of fields covering large areas.
but how could the numbers be anything but disappointing given that the wells are not flowing.
then there is the nature of the cpr - obscure third party, former soviet classification system presumably because none of the wells are flowing.
however, it is accepted by the geological committee of kazakhstan. so has probably been done for red tape purposes rather than any serious attempt to quantify the assets.

its possible the cp are preparing to bail (and getting ducks lined up for this). they will of course ensure they dont lose out, but will that be at the expense of the c.30% pi holders, or will pi's get equal value? who knows?

i just hope they dont try and do a deal based on this cpr.

yes, its possible that the share price will surge later this year, equally possible it will stagnate or fall due to ineptitude/lack of progress.

the history here does not lead to positive thoughts.

[the new norm] 14/6/2024 12:56

P1 14mmbls with PL $83m

P1 49mmbls without PL $0

P1 49mmbls with PL $290m+

simples!!!

added to the list of potential positives which might come home to roost in H2 24 ;-)

[penrith] 14/6/2024 11:40

To people who don't fully understand the implications of today's RNS I suggest a visit to the LSE chat forum. Casp has a lot of posters but one stands out to me as well above the rest and the posters handle is Somm. His/her knowledge seems pretty deep compared to the others I certainly consider his posts a worthwhile read. Beware of others on the board particularly if they have more than 12000 posts lol.

[stevehuges] 14/6/2024 11:07

What happens in august when the license expires?

[xclusive2] 14/6/2024 10:12

2 weeks to AGM, anyone going ? We know that it'll be the same old script but important to ask questions f2f. As we know they'll answer shareholder questions offline too but important to see the reaction when questions posed/answered .We've seen the latest presentation last year so how are they doing v strategy ? Actually what is the strategy ?- What are they going to do if no success at BNG deeps this year ? New CPR to sell it ? Likely value ? Partner ?- if drilling successful, what's the plan ? raise cash and go with FDP, sell or partner ?- Is the CE charter happening, if so, when? Are there more charters likely in 25 ? What is the CE sale value ? Would you opt to have a very small carried interest in future projects rather than take cash ?- What is the plan if Absolute deal fails ? Are there other interested parties- Block 8 status - nothing communicated on the deep drills apart from awaiting licence and test. Were there oil shows ? why haven't we had the technical detail ie coring info etc ?- When is WS spud

[xclusive2] 13/6/2024 14:31

I flippin hope we've made it before then as it will be in the inheritance planning ;)

[the new norm] 13/6/2024 14:06

10 years away but would offer another route to market for the millions of barrels of oil which will hopefully be in production from the son of Tengiz by then! ;-)

[bluemango] 13/6/2024 13:18

To be fair to Clive, it's as much in the hands of the auditor's pace of work/response times to queries answered etc and I guess you get what you pay for in that regard. PKF LLP are the auditors; who knows how many other accounts they are working on at the same time. And anyway, the pattern is late June so nothing out of the ordinary.

No real big deal, just another thing to add to the general frustration ... but no way I'd be selling any simply because of this. Focusing instead on what's coming H2 and beyond.

[the new norm] 13/6/2024 13:09

Yes our Clive does like to leave production of accounts very close to the regulation wire, I notice he does the same thing with the Interim results, for last three years he publishes in the last week of the 3 month reporting window.

Looks like we get the AAs and the operational update either on the morning of the AGM or a day or two before

The MMs antics today are bizarre its almost like there is a deal(new acquisition or another adviser needing paid in shares)which needs a closing mid price of 3.3p today to work!

[xclusive2] 13/6/2024 11:51

And their silly ploy has worked ie last 3 trades are buys at 3.265/3.27. Obviously showing a little blue will change behaviour but the bid at 3.2p hasn't changed all day. It looks as if it has stirred a little interest though. Whatever floats your boat !

[xclusive2] 13/6/2024 11:31

Re 23 FY accounts. I still believe they'll get them out looking back it's not 2017 that they managed to get AA accounts early enough for investors to vote them through, it was 2021.2023 - Trading suspended as accounts missed 30/6 deadline. Published on 7th July when trading resumed2022- Published 27/6, AGM on 30/62021 - Published 29/6 AGM 23/72020 - Published 25/6 AGM 26/62019 - Published 24/5 AGM 21/62018 - Published 14/5 AGM 19/6I think peeps are getting their knickers in a twist re accounts publication. Last 4 years they've been published last week in June and late in 23, the only year since inception where they were 7 days late.They could hold the AGM 3 weeks after AAs published as they've done many years historically but they've also not given the 3 weeks time period to investors too. No rhyme nor reason as far as I can see and have asked the question, why hold AGM early but no response as yet.I believe accounts get published pre AGM and if last 4 years are guidance, it's going to be last week of June, probably the day before AGM but that's speculation. As I say, peeps are selling but why ? I think it's a knickers in a twist moment but each to their own. It does present an opportunity for those who want stock to add on the cheap knowing that H2 activity SHOULD be very material. Good or bad ? I believe it'll be our most lucrative period for some time :)

[xclusive2] 13/6/2024 11:30

Yep, playing little games. Market has been 3.12-3.27 this morning and now 3.13-3.265 and true mid 3.2. Some peeps having a nibble but as posted on LSE. I believe there has been some panic selling as a result of possible late posting of accounts,I'll post that here too. Last 2 trades are buys and I believe it's a raving buy down here knowing what's likely to happen in H2.

[xclusive2] 11/6/2024 21:20

It's a good question NN and I have tried to find the answers. It is frustrating but I suspect that they do submit accounts pre AGM but obviously we can't vote on them hence another meeting. Wanting to sign off the resolutions first but they are pretty standard and allows them to issue shares where required and buy back if appropriate. Much that the wider concert party are needed to pass the 75% resolutions, they will as it's in their interests and little we can do .

[the new norm] 11/6/2024 18:24

Looking back I see the last time CASP managed to have their AAs signed off prior to the date of the AGM was for the year end 2017 accounts

I accept the period over lockdown and covid may have helped to delay admin however the statement in the recent circular saying the company will not comply with the production of year end accounts and the AGM date, so the accounts for year end 2023 will need to be signed off at a subsequent GM meeting

on the basis the company has 9 months from year end to file accounts to comply with tax rules I'm curious why Clive insists on having the AGM in June when it is clear that the companies admin and accountants are unable to produce and sign off accounts to meet the AGM date notification requirements

last year in the run up to the AGM we were waiting to see if the 50% sale of CE was going to go through, this year we are waiting to see if the drilling barge will sail to the abay block and start the first drill

is it just Clive being Clive or are there reasons for the delay in the sign off of the 2023 AAs which Clive wants to include in accounts as post year end notes?

[xclusive2] 11/6/2024 15:37

MMS moving the bid up slowly. Now 3.31 for 650k and bid 3.39 for 150k. Slowly edging up pre news

[xclusive2] 11/6/2024 10:41

Hi NN,Just stating the facts and hopefully H2 is the most successful period in company history. Re liabilities. Company stated that BNG licence liability was c $17 when they announced shallows sale and $15m come end 2024 when deal could complete. On that basis, 23 y/e liability was c $18.5m. Irrelevant really as they're paying it down annually and as you say, B8 loan will be repayable. Interesting market currently. Both trades today are sells but the bid has strengthened to 2.53 for 650k and ask weakened. Somebody is looking for stock, MMs probably and news on the doorstep.

[the new norm] 10/6/2024 20:37

Hi X/Smarty

I've just read your excellent summary of the current pre AA position of CASP posted on the LSE BB and think it should also be posted here too, I've taken the liberty of cutting and pasting it, hope you don't mind.

I agree with everything you say although I have a slightly different read on the liabilities situation and I don't think they will be as bad as you may fear

BNG Historic costs liability will have reduced by $3.2m(annual payment)

$5m B8 loan liability should be offset with a corresponding asset entry probably under accounts receivable

If as you say profits have increased for y/e 31/12/23 then this should have a positive impact on the closing figure for Total Equity & Liabilities

post year end the cash flow might now be getting a little tight with the up front funding of the CE drilling contract together with the various wells they are currently working on in H1

But as you say all to play for in H2, Exciting Times ;-)



Yep, I managed to get to the strategic stuff and Abay block definitely in the plan :)

News this week ? or do we wait til last knockings pre AGM ? Getting them out without a suspension would be an improvement on last year !

What can we expect ? The knockers will be focussing on increased liabilities adding to the BNG shallow prod licence. C $17m left from initial $32m ($3.2m pa) but that would obviously be cleared out if shallows sold. Other debts, oil trader, B8 loan so liabilities increasing and highlights the need for a cash injection. They're managing to maintain their drilling commitments whilst paying off debt albeit slowly.

Turnover will be down as a result of the war and sanctions but profitability up as a result of healthy MR/Domestic prices and their oil trading.

Production for the year will be c 700k barrels and an increase YOY but as we know, current volumes are declining at c 1600bopd hence the poss sale to Absolute.

Positives ? there will be plenty in the post accounting period to date that could generate a large cash injection

CE charter

Shallows sale

B8 licence approval, loan repayment, existing prod rev plus 2 deeps to test

803 progress update

802 partner update

155

NY horizontals on 8 series wells

A5 position

West Shalva spud date

Other

Always a waiting game but a lot planned and H2 should be very busy indeed and I believe we will get lucky on a deep whether that be 803, B8 or both :)

Many PIs have offloaded over last few weeks but share is the bottom and the gamble of being out or having a reduced holding come the release of very material news .

[georgereallysorearse] 06/6/2024 16:39

Been continually shafted by Clive and Casp it's getting soooo uncomfortable. No way I'm going to the AGM after what happened last time so sore.