Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[the new norm] 16/5/2024 12:36

quiet day in the office so got some time to speculate on what the future holds for CASP over next 12 months

following the $83m sale RNS I think we can bin the idea that the family is looking to sell whole Group and exit with bags of cash, I think this proposed sale of BNG shallows also quashes the speculation that the Family is planning to shaft the PIs and take the Group private on the cheap

$83m is a good price for the BNG asset but do you really want to lose the production just as you are beginning to create new profit streams from oil trading and drilling?

I think the answer lies in Block 8

Subject to block 8 licence renewal and sign off by the authorities CASP will initially have 4 deep wells with 1600 bopd production...speculation on my part...we have been told that the existing 2 deeps have produced up to 800 bopd but are currently only producing 110 bopd because of licence renewal requirements. I am assuming that the recently drilled and soon to be tested wells(2 wells) also produce at 400 bopd per well

CASP achieving $35 a barrel in local markets less $5 per barrel royalty payment

1600x$30x365 = $17.5m gross profit

Oil trading 1600x$10x365 = $6m gross profit

Block 8 production at these levels would replace current BNG shallow production

Add in CE profit of $15m and something for drilling services and you get annual gross profit north of $40m pa

Sale of BNG shallows brings in $83m less $15m historic costs less $5m block 8 loan less oil trading finance and they will be sitting on $60m cash on balance sheet

Ignores any production from BNG/SY deeps and WS and 3ABest

All potentially happening in the current financial year ending Dec 2024

Looks good for a penny a share dividend and possibly a special dividend of 1p within next 12 months

The Family get $25m+ in dividends and CASP share price hits 20p+

Very scalable business model with lots of potential for dividend growth from increased oil production and future profitable asset sales

Market cap quickly increases above KO/CC big bonus hurdles and they get their big pay days too

Exciting times ;-)

[xclusive2] 16/5/2024 12:07

https://wp-caspiansunrise-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2017/03/2007-Interim-Results-2007.09.07.pdfhttps://www.caspiansunrise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Roxi-Petroleum-Admission-Document-Notice-of-General-Meeting-dated-31.01.08.pdfA long time ago now and i often look back to see what drove my initial investment into Roxi and Max Petroleum !IPO @ 38p before swiftly moving to 75p !! and then the crash to 2p the following year. Spent next 5 years surviving post the global financial crisis . Sp propelled to 25p on announcement of A5 discovery in 2014. So much has happened in Roxi/Caspian history and I'm amazed it's still here and not in the penny graveyard amongst hundreds of failures. They survived legal battles, Covid, Kazakh riots and are still trading.I believe it's in a far stronger position now than at anytime in the last 18 years, those invested for aons will understand this. They have amassed a large asset base but as of today, they have not created the shareholder value from the acreage. Yes, Galaz sale was a coup, MJF/SY have served their purpose but the deeps, the most lucrative assets in the portfolio, success has allude them to date. Why is it in a far stronger position when the share price is still on its arze ? They have spent over $200m since inception on drilling activities and they have drilled 7 deeps, 4 of which have flowed and 2 at B8 which are awaiting testing and 2 more being drilled. They've spent the money and as of today, they have nothing to show for their endeavours on the deep campaign but they have all flowed. They are drilling 803 as we speak following 802 flowing at 700-900bopd before blockage. They are flow testing A5 again and will probably partner to complete the 802 remedial work. Even if they're unsuccessful in delivering sustained commercial flow rates, the deep average will still carry significant value if they chose to sell it, regardless of booked reserves. They also have the production to come from B8 existing deep and the 2 wells drilled to be tested. They have WS which is an unknown quantity and the CE which is only on the BS for c $3m where its real worth is probably x20. I believe that Caspian are about to create real value from their asset base in the near term. The shallows deal at $83m is higher than carry value on the books, there is zippo priced in our share price for all other the assets. The outcomes of 803 and A5 are critical to multiplying the asset value at BNG and we're going to see the outcomes of those wells and Block 8 in the very near future. They're also going to stick some holes in WS and they're going to provably achieve $10m + a year from barge activities if the Abay contract is a guide. They have the oil services business which gas real value especially if they can farm into future projects, the CE may give them that opportunity too.The sum of our asset base is worth more than our current m/cap and that's without the cash from MJF. Nobody is buying it currently but we're going to see considerable change over next few weeks, months and if it's the right news, Casper may eventually fulfil its promise .

[maxim1999] 16/5/2024 11:50

I wonder how old the image is? They could be flaring now ?

[xclusive2] 16/5/2024 07:49

Would be nice to see some flaring ;-

[xclusive2] 15/5/2024 14:10

Maxim,I believe we all do ! To sell it, they obviously knew that mature field development was not their bag and best left to a a larger probably more competent entity to do a proper job and make a killing ! I am probably the most relaxed I've been for some time re the stability and likely upside. They're not going to prove up the billion barrels we all want to see, they're going to book x reserves and probably sell it to a larger player who has the resources and funds to do the FDP. Still plenty of upside here and still see this getting back into the 20p+ range. Maybe I've got it wrong and if they pull off A5 and 802 then maybe they continue ? I don't think so.

[maxim1999] 15/5/2024 13:02

If CASP claim to be an oil producer it seems a gamble in their recent deals to buy non producing assets and sell producing assets. I like everyone else hope it's because a deep as soon to flow

[xclusive2] 15/5/2024 11:58

And not one post on LSE ! Must be worn out after yesterday .

[xclusive2] 15/5/2024 10:06

BSG,Deal not done yet. They obviously believe that Di 's strategy not working after 141/142 failure. I asked the question why and it's to do with re-entering previously drilled wells and not being able to manage the water ingress issues. Needs a skilled player and somebody better funded to exploit the reserves. There could be 15mboe recoverable and if so, that's a steal for Absolute but unfortunately Casper cant deliver the goods. At least they're acknowledging the fact and deploying their skills at WS but no guarantees there either but not long to find out. They also have liabilities that were building ie Oil trader debt , the BNG $15m but both those will be cleared if deal done and they have the additional $5m from B8 loan to be repaid when licence approved in addition to the current prod albeit only 100bopd until new wells tested. Add in CE cash if that lands and Caspian will be debt free and over $75m in the bank. In addition, they have all the other assets in the portfolio ie A block, NY, B8, WS and the CE. Very little is priced in for any of these assets but the next couple of months is going to be defining for the Caspian faithful, good, bad or indifferent.

[bsg] 15/5/2024 09:45

Just seems a big risk selling the shallows before deeps flowing.

[xclusive2] 15/5/2024 09:39

The bid is weak ie NT and the ask is string ie can buy 700 do next move is down again but all irrelevant unless you're actively trading it.

[xclusive2] 15/5/2024 09:29

It is odd that there isn't considerable volume today. Bid was weak last night as the buying dried up after the morning trade. We had a seller in the market pre the shallow sale announcement and the headline e number was not as high as many were hoping for. That said, it's a chunk of cash and they feel that operating a maturing field is not their forte, deep drilling isn't to date either but maybe that changes soon with the current wells ie 803/B8 and A5. If there's success at A5 for example, this gets very silly indeed.It's a good find by Adrianz re A5 flow test. I still find that odd that they haven't announced it as it's material yet nobody is buying the fact that it's actually happening, they've obviously milled out the stuck pipe and cleared blockage as why test ? History has shown us that there are always problems so maybe investors are sitting tight until other news hits eg CE cash or B8 licence ?There is so much on the go currently that should trigger another bullish run and I do find it very odd that investors aren't buying it. If A5 and 802 flow, then the share price will go mad.They say they don't have the skills to manage a maturing shallow field, the deeps are obviously more difficult so that's probably not their bag either, especially as there'll be huge infrastructure costs if they take it into production. The likely out one is BNG sale in entirety, if so, the value depends on the reserves assessment and if any of the NY or A blocks well flow, GCline will be in to prepare a long overdue CPR.If that were truly the plan, then maybe B8 will be in the mix too as that could be linked to the BNG structure running all the way to the elephants in the west !!Huge upside from here and at some point the penny drops but as always, they need deep success which to date has alluded them and that's why many are probably holding tight, waiting for some more positive news and buying pre the herd entrance :)

[bsg] 15/5/2024 09:27

Seems, selling off their only stream of income isn't a popular move.

[xclusive2] 15/5/2024 08:57

Tight spread and £20k allowance utilisation.

[dipla] 15/5/2024 08:30

Do can you tell that?

[xclusive2] 15/5/2024 08:30

Strange time to be executing a BednIsa trade ?

[dipla] 15/5/2024 08:07

I'm surprised there no buyers around at these levels

[jtourer] 14/5/2024 17:56

Are you a bit mental ???

[xclusive2] 14/5/2024 17:38

Hmmmmm, that is very interesting.

[thetoonarmy2] 14/5/2024 17:02

What about the well testing going on now at A5 see below

[xclusive2] 14/5/2024 11:48

?? They've set up the UAE as the tax haven, they won't be siphoning assets off to another Jazakh company.....lol. They've down years filling Casper with assets and they own the majority anyway. The UK listing gives some protection to Casper, without it their prey to the bigger boys.BNG deeps being lined up and this won't be firm here for long, especially if B8 or any of the deeps were to flow although I'm not holding my breath.

[west4] 14/5/2024 11:14

Does this open the door to sell (move) deeps to a Kazakh registered company?Quietly accumulated, naturally suspicious!

[xclusive2] 14/5/2024 10:52

That's a good point NN and I asked the company the question earlier today , Simon, yep, I'd be for retaining a % interest in the deeps .

[the new norm] 14/5/2024 10:47

According to the March 24 RNS the newly formed oil trading company was making $10 per barrel from MJF/SY production

will the oil trading company have Absolute Resources LLP as their first third party client assuming the $83m sale of MJF/SY goes through by August?

Equates to a tidy $6m pa income stream for CASP at current production levels

[simonatwork] 14/5/2024 10:44

I wouldn't mind them selling the BNG deeps as long as it included a carried interest % so that we share the potential value.

I haven't been here for over 10 years for a few p profit, I'm still hoping for something transformational as I think a lot of us still are.