Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[konil] 10/4/2024 10:29

the price action since the rns says it all.
management need to stop with lining their (and their family/mates) pockets with asset transfers and start delivering operational momentum at a reasonable pace.

for far too long operational progress has been snail like, difficult to justify with supposedly 5 rigs at their disposal.
would help if they stopped playing draughts with their rigs around the acreage...or is that just a convenient excuse, albeit with no logic, to explain lack of drilling progress.

with the meeting date set for 25th april, does that now mean no more op news till may? in any case they will be loathe to see the share price increase until they have finalised this latest pocket lining at 4p.

and the lower the share price gets they can later say the deal was done at a wonderful price for the company. or worse still they may reprice the deal at the lower share price and give themselves even more shares.

for me this latest asset transfer is a step too far and i'm looking for the door at opportune moment.

p.s. not that it matters a jot to the bod.

[xclusive2] 09/4/2024 13:30

Definitely BedNIsa. The share price pull back has its advantages to those who want to move stock from the trading pot into the ISAc 90k more at the low end, it all helps.

[bluemango] 09/4/2024 13:16

Definitely are - one person on LSE has even said one of them was his. A holder of 10m-plus shares.

[scrwal] 09/4/2024 12:26

Not sure they are bed and ISA based on the prices which indicate they could all be sells because the ISA purchase should be at a slightly higher price based on the spread.

[bluemango] 09/4/2024 11:23

Encouraging to see an investor doing a Bed'n'ISA using their full £20k ISA allowance on Casp shares with that pair of 588k trades. At least that person's confident ...

Edit: And another pair, same again - so another person (or first one's spouse)

[scrwal] 08/4/2024 23:00

Well the Highlights in the rns aren't entirely accurate as the circular states on page 12 under the Terms of the Acquisition

" The Acquisition Agreement has been entered into by (1) Caspian Sunrise and (2) Altynbek Bolatzhan. Conditional on the approval of the Independent Shareholders of the Waiver Resolution and the regulators in Kazakhstan, the Group will acquire 100% of CS Energy for a maximum consideration of US$15 million,comprising up to US$10 million of Ordinary Shares issued at a price of 4.0p per Ordinary Share with the balance in cash. The consideration is payable in three tranches with US$5 million to be paid on Completion by the issue of 99,206,349 Ordinary Shares at a price of 4.0p per share; a further US$5 million to be paid following first oil at West Shalva by either the issue of a further 99,206,349 Ordinary Shares to be issued at a price of 4.0 p per share or in cash at the option of the seller; and with the final tranche to be the first US$5 million revenue from West Shalva once under the Group’s ownership payable in cash."

So the 2nd $5m tranche could be paid in cash not shares at the sellers option and not solely shares as per the rns.

[le mailot jaune] 08/4/2024 13:39

In June 2022 oil was detected spilling to the surface.
It happened to Jed why not us.

[scrwal] 08/4/2024 12:41

The thing I don't like is that we pay over the first $5m of revenue from West Shalva which would be a massive drain on cash as we are paying all the costs and how long would this last since no-one knows what the bopd would be - the flow might be low enough so that the company is committed to keep the field operational but never actually sees any cash from it , this is an extreme scenario but it could happen.

Hopefully we do see decent flows and the $5m is paid very quickly.

[spangle93] 08/4/2024 11:51

Just a PS on this

"explain why the Independent Directors consider the Acquisition and the Waiver Resolution to be fair and reasonable and in the best interests of the Company and the Independent Shareholders as a whole and why the Independent Directors unanimously recommend that the Independent Shareholders vote in favour of the Waiver Resolution"

Now there's no Limerick, exactly on the board would be classed as an "Independent director" that is representing us.
Carver, with his options, shares, and salary
or Aibek, with his 44% of shares in issue

[bluemango] 08/4/2024 11:46

Just as a side note, this reduces the target price to trigger Carver's and Kuat's 2019 $800m market cap bonus shares award, from 28.15p to just under 26p. Whether that's a good or a bad thing, you decide ...

[xclusive2] 08/4/2024 11:38

Double decker...lol, we're waiting for them, 4 allegedly. I meant Black & Decker ....lol

[xclusive2] 08/4/2024 11:37

36 pages, that's why I asked for your trained eye to summarise in 5 mins..,,lol, thanks for doing that. So the oil is seeping or pouring all over the Roughneck wellies again....lol pictures of Kazakhs soaked in oil, I welcome that eventuality.Shallower drilling and hopefully they only need to put the household double decker to get a gusher ;)As I said, it's never boring with this crowd !

[spangle93] 08/4/2024 11:32

There are shades of bobobob talking about AST at Agnani for those who remember oil on boots. Sigh

God knows where the oil is spilling from??

As for the wax, the circular repeats "The oil from West Shalva is expected to be
37-38 API with 20-30 wax."
A unit would be good. PPM? % by weight? mars bars per 1000km?

[spangle93] 08/4/2024 11:30

Well, it's 36 pages long! Most of it relates to the background of the company, and to the effect of the respective holdings.

This is about the extent of the additional information on the prospect

West Shalva was first identified as a potential oil producing location in the mid 1970’s. In 1977 and based on 2D seismic data, Well no. 4 (Wsh-4) was drilled to the north and outside the structural closure of the West Shalva prospect to a depth of 3,500 meters with a prime potential oil bearing interval detected at a depth of
1,033 meters in the lower Triassic. After open hole testing lasting only a few minutes the well was deemed not to have found any commercial volumes of oil or gas despite oil being detected at three other intervals. The well was then abandoned without running a production string.

In 2008 a 3D seismic survey was undertaken on the contract area, which identified the West Shalva structure.

In June 2022 oil was detected spilling to the surface.


Licence and current work programme
The West Shalva exploration licence was renewed in 2023 for a six year period. The current work programme commitment is for one well to a depth of 2,660 meters targeting at least two intervals in the Triassic at an estimated cost of US$3 million and for which the required 3D seismic information is readily available



Edit - sorry, this "letter from the chairman" was in the RNS - I'd lost interest after all the blurb at the foot of the news notice and missed the appendix

[xclusive2] 08/4/2024 11:00

Thanks Spangle. I'm out and about so if somebody would be kind enough to summarise any key points :)

[spangle93] 08/4/2024 10:55

Link to Circular

[konil] 08/4/2024 10:47

yes, quite. history here not good on this type of activity.

nothing to do but wait, just hope they announce some good operational news soon. i'd prefer it to come while i'm still breathing.

[xclusive2] 08/4/2024 10:38

Maybe I'm being over cynical but history has shown that a fair dose is needed when these deals appear. Spangle, I misread the commitment as being $10m not $5m if uncommercial but I still remember 3AB and nothing to show for it apart from dilution. 100m shares is 5% dilution and at current prices it's $5m but what if they do hit it big on other assets, its a lot more dilutive then and didn't need to be as they could've paid for it in pocket Tenge. K, maybe you're right and a deal done at this level as opposed to doing it following positive news. Maybe a BNG shallows deal is nearer than we think or CE/B8 approval ?For me, they wait but maybe the BNG shallows deal is closer than I think or something else that's going to move the share price I remain sceptical until I see really good reason not to be !

[penrith] 08/4/2024 09:58

Fairly typical Casp. £84K shares sold, Mkt cap £84 million and a drop of 6%.
Seriously that is almost like me selling my complete holding and causing a 6% drop.
The share price is completely irrelevant at the moment.
My technical knowledge of Casp is minimal compared to some on here even though I have been invested for a number of years.
My commonsense however I value highly LOL and it tells me that whats seen as good for the concert party in the longer term is good for us.
There plan is to increase their fortune and we are hanging on to their tails.Enjoy the (at times very bumpy) ride.
ATB.

[konil] 08/4/2024 09:45

perhaps they are holding back newsflow to allow this to get done at 4p. imagine if they had announced a big positive item, they might have had to do this at 6p or 8p or whatever...far fewer shares for the insiders then.

silver lining:
the pi has no hope of a remotely level playing field here, however, now that this arrangement has been announced (at 4p) perhaps it clears the way for some good news...but not before the passage of some time...unless they are willing to change the terms before its been ratified.

[spangle93] 08/4/2024 09:44

Well, let's hope that the Circular has some kind of independent valuation to support the agreed price.

As far as I can see, we're planning to spend $5MM on unproven moose pasture - yes, there is 3D seismic, and yes, there appear to be analogs close by (though the oil industry is littered with stories of analogs that ultimately didn't turn out to be so) but there are no actual reserves or resources.

At least the deal is staged so that $5MM is the most we pay if it's uncommercial.

But how do you value unproven acreage with potential in a sale between friends.

[bluemango] 08/4/2024 09:26

Can see why some shareholders might be disgruntled, but it's a large difference from that, to actually being moved to sell any shares, especially given the previous RNS of BNG sale- therefore the bizarre market reaction can imo only be explained by the small recent rise and some very short-sighted, consequent minor profit-taking.

[xclusive2] 08/4/2024 09:16

Konil,Yep, it's a Yuk from me too. Had enough of the sweetheart deals and the market trading today shows what they think of this proposed deal. I just posted this note on LSE and it sums up how I feel. Well, it's certainly not boring as of late with our Casper. I'm not a fan of today's announcement and can't see why they're doing it now by issuing 200m shares and 10% dilution ? Why not wait until CE cash hits or see the conclusion of any BNG shallows deal first and avoid dilution ? Not saying that this may not work out in our favour but I for one have had enough of sweetheart deals but no way to tell here as this is acreage that hasn't been explored yet. Yes, Shalva has C1 of 5m boe and c 400bopd but West Shalva is another punt, moreover it's being bought from Bolthazan hence the Waiver meeting. It could be a successful venture but as some have pointed out, it's an IF not a when. We've already purchased 3AB through a dilutive share issue and written that loss down. The CE another deal done through equity dilution although we can argue that the barge is more valuable than the deal done BUT it better start earning its keep otherwise it will be seen as a white elephant.My question is 'why do it now ?' If these are the development assets that BNG shallows cash could be used for then so be it but let's get the cash in pre any deal, there's no need to do it now ? We have enough assets and the priority is proving up the deeps. Use the CE cash to assist with funding alongside BNG shallows and avoid dilution. If any deal onBNG shallows is that good then fantastic but wait for that before jumping on new acreage. Must be another B8 or 3AB situation where licences need to be approved and risk of losing licences maybe ?Let's get on with the proving up of BNG, drill A5 and 803 and then take stock. The CE cash will hopefully land and then take a view on West Shalva. Currently I won't be supporting any deal but I don't believe our vote counts anyway .

[jostrummer] 08/4/2024 09:11

yeah they seem to like it dont they?

[bluemango] 08/4/2024 09:08

Positive note from WH Ireland.

'would appear to be a replication of the playbook that worked successfully for the company at its prolific MJF structure'

My thoughts - whilst further (albeit small) dilution is not welcome, the move shows active and strategic thinking, and the market reaction so far is bizarre, especially given the ongoing BNG sale for potentially far more than the current market cap.

One of the main rationales for investing in Casp has always been riding the coat-tails of the Concert Party. Knowing the prize at the end, for them, is a far higher ultimate valuation. This is just another step in that process.