Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[maxim1999] 18/4/2024 13:45:20

Not really a surprise but it's a shame to see the shares trading sub 3p. The company needs to cement a valuation much higher so that in the absence of any news we don't always trade back down to the lows. Optically with all the news in the pipeline I am confident much better prices are a distinct possibility. May will be a big month for us

[timberwolf3] 16/4/2024 17:34:05

Thank you Spangle once again for your knowledgeable interpretation of the information we have been supplied. you would think at the very least the seller would provide up to date 3D data to substantiate his lofty asking price.

[xclusive2] 16/4/2024 11:00:00

Thanks for your input Spangle, interesting. I suspect many shareholders are concerned re the latest proposed deal at West Shalva. Is it another 3AB deal wherby we suffered dilution and no ROI ? On the face of it it does look like another sweetheart deal but won't know until it's drilled. I'm not unhappy with their acquisition strategy but am unhappy with the structure of this deal. They could structure it completely differently without any immediate dilution apart from drilling commitments. Our Bolthazan is going to receive 200m shares or should I say the KO clan is and it could be a repeat of 3AB, there are no guarantees. Surely they should be waiting to see the outcomes from BNG shallows sale, CE deal and current drilling ? if positive then the share price will increase and that's the time to do the deal as it would be far less dilutive. The CP/WCP would be winning as the share price could be back to double figures but no, they're doing it now and it's another feed at the trough. They could've waited as the asset is available so why do it now ? I suspect that the BNG shallows deal is closer than we think, maybe B8 news too and the CE cash deal confirmation. I think they're rushing it through to max out their shareholding pre releasing positive news and to have prospective acreage at WS that COULD replace MJF.One thing I do know, they're going all in with building their shareholding so surely there has to be good news and an exit at some juncture. Could be the biggest bargain on AIM or the Casper saga will drag on, which is it ? we'll know very soon imo.

[konil] 15/4/2024 09:40:55

spangle, thanks, most illuminating. when i read it i didn't know how to interpret it, a knowledgeable eye makes all the difference!

i fear we will not hear anything about all the various operational items supposedly currently underway now (unless they are failures), until the ws asset has been absorbed into casp. at a guess that means no good news (if there is any) until around may at best.

[spangle93] 15/4/2024 09:00:36

I downloaded the Gaffney Cline summary and had a browse through it over the weekend. It's worth a look for balance, as it is factual, independent, short, and contains lots of information to complement the RNS

I'd love to say that it demonstrated why the deal is such a no-brainer, but IMHO, it doesn't conclude that. The key things are

1. there is only one potential structure on the licence, so it's that or nothing

2. the Jurassic target has low structural relief, meaning it's going to have a wide U1-U3 range, because it is hard to image clearly without depth ambiguity on the "moderate to poor quality" 3D seismic

3. the area is a proven hydrocarbon province, and the Jurassic is the primary target.

4. The Jurassic has a prize similar to MJF - about 10 MMbbl in the U1 case, and 17 MMbbl in the 2U (mid) case.

5. There's a slight disconnect between the views of the directors and those of G-C regarding the top of the Jurassic reservoir. In the RNS it states "the West Shalva reservoir is higher than at Shalva and considered by the Directors to have better sealing". However, Shalva is reportedly on production, whereas for West Shalva, G-C say given the low amplitude of the trap at the Middle Jurassic at West Shalva and the presence of faults in the area, top and lateral seal is not a given. So while they consider the reservoir quality and source are proven, they lower the overall CoS to 54%

6. The Triassic has delivered oil in well tests elsewhere in the Zhetybay Steppe, but is rarely on production (it's also much deeper: 2900m vs 1300m), so reservoir quality is the key issue. Accordingly the Triassic CoS quoted by Gaffney Cline is 23%. You wouldn't buy in for this.


So, I guess in summary you could say that we'd have to pay $5MM up front, and $3MM for a well, to test one structure that's independently assessed to contain a mid case of 17 MMbbl, with a coin toss chance of success.

I don't think that was how WH Ireland described it to their readers ;-)

Maybe it's still an attractive proposition as a farm in, or if the deal reflected in a different way the risk to CASP?

[le mailot jaune] 12/4/2024 20:47:31

That camel had previous, was on his way to oilholics anonymous

[konil] 12/4/2024 08:55:03

thanks spangle.
i guess we'll know the reality once they start working on it.

[spangle93] 11/4/2024 18:48:40

Looks like further reading about the proposed transaction has been added today to the CASP website

[bluemango] 11/4/2024 17:04:52

dipla.

Four operational updates since October, so they're fairly regular recently.

At the outside, annual report is due in next 10 weeks (around end June)

[dipla] 11/4/2024 07:48:22

When we get an update on the deeps next

[maxim1999] 10/4/2024 16:21:51

Good point. Either not releasing good news or releasing any sort of usual update with the standard family bale out or (lack of) operational update.

[konil] 10/4/2024 15:34:34

yeah read that in rns's many times over the years only to be followed by an rns some time later with excuses why it could not be progressed, or worse just re-stating the same objective as if for the first time, or even worse giving contradictory info.

re. block8 licence approval, i wonder what the extended hold up is? easy to blame the 3rd party (kaz authorities), maybe that's correct or maybe casp are not meeting the required conditions or arguing about terms?

re 802, how long are they going to be "seeking partners to jointly exploit" ?

re. 803 and a5, are you saying they have been actively working on these? let's hope you are correct. just wonder why its taken this long to get back to a5.

[konil] 10/4/2024 15:15:33

by not releasing positive news.

[maxim1999] 10/4/2024 13:03:40

I am not sure the company has a mechanism to dictate the share price. How could they keep the share price depressed to stop it running away from the 4 p strike? Moving on is there any point in going to the shareholder meeting? Whatever the strategy they deliver on the day won't be impacted by a few shareholders turning up and asking questions on it. My experience is the meetings are a complete waste of time. I met KO at a meeting where they mapped out an impressive 12 month plan of acquisition, testing , exploration, increased forecast production etc. He even showed a video on his phone of a flared well. That's was 7 years ago and production and share price are little changed.

[bluemango] 10/4/2024 11:35:04

'need to see them focus on a deep'

I hear what you say - but they are.

Two Block8 deeps prepped and ready for testing when licence approved.
802 - seeking partners to jointly exploit.
803 - in progress
A5 - new sidetrack, results soon.

[konil] 10/4/2024 11:28:33

bsg, agreed.

i am concerned that in the absence of their ability to get deep success it will be a fair few more years while they continue corporate juggling, including for example the sale of shallow assets (if that becomes reality).

the danger there is that if they dont have replacement production to replace the lost cashflow from shallows, casp goes several rungs up the risk scale, because once the sale cash goes, as it inevitably will sooner or later, they are essentially bankrupt and will need to raise finance. (one off inputs from ce cannot be relied upon.)

so if re-financing required we know how that is likely to end for the pi.

need to see them focus on a deep and get it to work, stop flitting about multiple wells, meanwhile being distracted with their pocket lining.

[bluemango] 10/4/2024 11:18:08

What ages are Carver and Kuat? Presumably they will be seeking a comfortable retirement at some point in the not too distant future. Look at it from their viewpoint and with the extra info they have at their disposal.

Do they and the Concert Party in general want an exit at a much higher valuation? Of course they do, and the time for that exit is probably drawing a lot closer. For holders who have been in this a decade or more, who feel this has gone on forever, it may not seem like it, but that has to be the reality. If people don't like or don't understand some of the strategy, then go along to the GM in a couple of weeks' time and get some explanations.

No way I'm parting with any shares until this multi-bags from here. Period.

[bsg] 10/4/2024 11:01:44

I think you have to accept they're going to line their own pockets first. At least there is a chance that your pockets will get lined afterwards.

[konil] 10/4/2024 10:29:26

the price action since the rns says it all.
management need to stop with lining their (and their family/mates) pockets with asset transfers and start delivering operational momentum at a reasonable pace.

for far too long operational progress has been snail like, difficult to justify with supposedly 5 rigs at their disposal.
would help if they stopped playing draughts with their rigs around the acreage...or is that just a convenient excuse, albeit with no logic, to explain lack of drilling progress.

with the meeting date set for 25th april, does that now mean no more op news till may? in any case they will be loathe to see the share price increase until they have finalised this latest pocket lining at 4p.

and the lower the share price gets they can later say the deal was done at a wonderful price for the company. or worse still they may reprice the deal at the lower share price and give themselves even more shares.

for me this latest asset transfer is a step too far and i'm looking for the door at opportune moment.

p.s. not that it matters a jot to the bod.

[xclusive2] 09/4/2024 13:30:45

Definitely BedNIsa. The share price pull back has its advantages to those who want to move stock from the trading pot into the ISAc 90k more at the low end, it all helps.

[bluemango] 09/4/2024 13:16:22

Definitely are - one person on LSE has even said one of them was his. A holder of 10m-plus shares.

[scrwal] 09/4/2024 12:26:10

Not sure they are bed and ISA based on the prices which indicate they could all be sells because the ISA purchase should be at a slightly higher price based on the spread.

[bluemango] 09/4/2024 11:23:05

Encouraging to see an investor doing a Bed'n'ISA using their full £20k ISA allowance on Casp shares with that pair of 588k trades. At least that person's confident ...

Edit: And another pair, same again - so another person (or first one's spouse)

[scrwal] 08/4/2024 23:00:10

Well the Highlights in the rns aren't entirely accurate as the circular states on page 12 under the Terms of the Acquisition

" The Acquisition Agreement has been entered into by (1) Caspian Sunrise and (2) Altynbek Bolatzhan. Conditional on the approval of the Independent Shareholders of the Waiver Resolution and the regulators in Kazakhstan, the Group will acquire 100% of CS Energy for a maximum consideration of US$15 million,comprising up to US$10 million of Ordinary Shares issued at a price of 4.0p per Ordinary Share with the balance in cash. The consideration is payable in three tranches with US$5 million to be paid on Completion by the issue of 99,206,349 Ordinary Shares at a price of 4.0p per share; a further US$5 million to be paid following first oil at West Shalva by either the issue of a further 99,206,349 Ordinary Shares to be issued at a price of 4.0 p per share or in cash at the option of the seller; and with the final tranche to be the first US$5 million revenue from West Shalva once under the Group’s ownership payable in cash."

So the 2nd $5m tranche could be paid in cash not shares at the sellers option and not solely shares as per the rns.

[le mailot jaune] 08/4/2024 13:39:09

In June 2022 oil was detected spilling to the surface.
It happened to Jed why not us.