Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 24/11/2017 15:37

K, Yep, $204m at 20/35 but I'm expecting more next year on prices and barrels .All deeps flowing inc A8 and 802 at c 3500bopd and 10 shallows minimum at 6000bopd, net oil at 25 and $40.Regardless of fundamentals, the hype will send this rocketing whilst they're still exploring .

[konil] 24/11/2017 15:03

timber, yes i believe it is but it will take perhaps 2 years to get there.

in next 12 months - if 3 of the 9 deeps flow at say average 3500 = 10500bopd. if 6 of the 9 mjf infill shallows flow at average 500 = 3000bopd. with the existing production that's a total of 17500bopd.

if all 3 current deeps flow then it could come sooner. that would also increase chances of more deeps adding to production total.

with 17500bopd and 80% export it would be in excess of $200m p.a.

[xclusive2] 24/11/2017 14:38

I'm all for withholding news until January as all we're doing is facilitating the exit for the Kazakhs. A few delays please Clive and start 2018 with a bang. I'm for picking up stock between Xmas and New Year then hey presto ?Jan newsflowA5 initial 30 days update at 4000bopdA6 CommercialA8 spudded and at x metres801 - pipe removed and mud cleared and flowing146 at 600bopdThat'll do for starters.

[roy1982] 24/11/2017 14:29

will we get an RNS when the A5 flow test starts?

[timberwolf3] 24/11/2017 14:24

konil - slide 19 is also on the conservative side , if what i was told a number of years ago comes to fruition.

[davidblack] 24/11/2017 13:46

Sounds like a terrible company, Not!

[konil] 24/11/2017 13:27

a note to cheer me up, thought i'd share it too...

the company is debt free and already has cashflow to grow organically.

expenditure on 3 potential mega assets (a5 a6 801) already banked, with the assets ready to deliver in near term, with smaller potential assets (146, 808) soon to report.

cashflow from proven assets (mjf) to grow at speed with upto 9 low cost infill wells through 2018.

2 more deeps soon to be started and a further 4 on the cards for 2018.

no need to fund raise and dilute, the stake currently held by investors in the assets should prove solid.

talk of 10000bopd is lame, for a better picture of management ambitions look at slide 19 of the 21 nov presentation.

and that managenent have the right connections in kaz.

and hold 57% between them which can be a shield against dilution.

oh, and did i mention the company is debt free and already has cashflow to grow organically!

:-)

[davidblack] 24/11/2017 13:20

The last thing we want is an RNS today.

A nice Tuesday morning job would suit? I don't like Monday announcements as the as the tiddlers like Caspian get crowded out by bigger companies.

[dipla] 24/11/2017 11:52

4 more days before the end of the month, come on Clive!

[davidblack] 24/11/2017 10:54

The selling today looks small scale not big blocks? UK locals packing up for the weekend more like?

[davidblack] 24/11/2017 10:52

Hi Hornsting

Looked at those slides which are interesting and pretty much incomprehensable to non geologists! I think the slide 23 might be the one you were thinking of?

Its clearly the right well 54 and also Dolomites but what is out of line is that they were talking about a 1400m deep well to the dolomites the slide to me suggests 1920m.

So yes clearly they were positive about well 54 six years ago and now they have the cash to do something about it.

What seems transformative is the horizontal drilling, if this rock is soft then this could be a whole new cheap cashflow game.

[steveh8] 24/11/2017 10:30

It's always one thing after another with investing, we finally look like we are getting somewhere and then impacted by CGT rules in Kaz

[xclusive2] 24/11/2017 08:44

Didn't expect to see a retrace after clean up the other day but looks like we're going to see continued selling to year end. If it is a result of Kazakhs taking advantage of tax and FX position then nowt we can do about that.Yelemes 54, yep an interesting opp and good point made re being able to sell the oil at production prices. Little risk at $3m to exploit v potential upside from cash and additional reserves.I'm interested to see if they add more acreage as per their 2015 purchase for next to nothing. MXP's acreage on the cheap in return for meeting licence drilling obligations, yes please.Sit back and enjoy the ride and if you want more, probably a good time to add would be just before Xmas as the market will be thin and maybe done bargains if our Kazakh are still dumping.

[davidblack] 24/11/2017 08:21

Hornet-nesting I will take a look later. They never showed us a map but he did say it was 1400m below surface and he was very positive about it.

I got th feeling that they had been sitting on a lot of these “New” ideas for quite a while due to lack of cash but the success in the shallows is now allowing them to look at things like well 54 and pushing on 800m deeper at A8 tonyhat third think layer.

Oh other than the cashflows which have transformed the options the other transformation apparently is they now believe they know how to drill with the right mud weight and chemical additives to avoid the overheating and drill failures of the past. We will see!

[konil] 24/11/2017 04:32

smarty, have to agree, the only way we lose is if its a con. otherwise even if first deeps are dud, the share price may initially take a hit, but fundamentals will out and share price will go higher from here. oraz and satyl look like heavyweights so likelihood is they use a straight bat.

[hornetsting] 24/11/2017 04:19

Davidblack, thanks for the useful posts about the meeting last week. It is a long time since much technical information has been available about their discoveries. Do you think the well 54 Dolomite, which KO is so cheerful about, is the South Yelemes Dolomite they referred to in the 2011 presentation below? All technical stuff but worth a look.
hxxp://www.roxipetroleum.com/roxi/uploads/results/RoxiInvestorPresentation27June11final21.pdf

[xclusive2] 23/11/2017 19:56

...lol, that's a cracker. Hopefully a nice little Rights issue with it, happy days ?

[lw425] 23/11/2017 19:53

my guess is a 9p placement

lets see is I'm right!

with love from Pieman

[xclusive2] 23/11/2017 19:50

LW1028,LW's back, time to start buying loads more ! The only way we lose money here is if it's another con. Not out of the question as it's happened before but very unlikely.Ship's about to leave port, don't leave it too long as not many tickets left (-:Toggle,Thanks for adding to header.

[lw425] 23/11/2017 19:36

now is not the time to buy

smarty is still too happy and bullish

wait until he becomes depressed

then very depressed

threatening to sell

we are not at that stage yet

but when we are buy for the bounce back

[togglebrush] 23/11/2017 19:13

DavidBlack... I posted earlier a case study with just two variables share price and Foreign exchange which showed the risk analysis if these went wrong. It was possible if the FX went wrong the you could lose money even if the share price hit brokers estimate. Add in the Capital Gains Tax and those loses could look even worse. These are big money operators and they do the numbers.
#
see post 2300

[konil] 23/11/2017 17:32

toggle, some good points! but as for dreaming...that's all there has been here so far.


steve, what's the gist of it please.

edit: no probs steve, i've had a look.

[davidblack] 23/11/2017 17:30

Is this discussion of selling shares by the concert parties missing the point?

KO was absolutely clear that he thought the Company had huge upside. His transfer to his children, essentially a family portfolio switch. It was not a sale.

The other concert party shareholders you can be certain know of KO's optimism. They certainly know that any sales by them into the market cost them their upside in exchange for a small tax break?

After the presentation it was made pretty clear that these large Kazakh holders, who had been there a long time, were very keen to make the big profits they see themselves as due, especially after being in the play for five to seven years.

So this talk of them selling might be missing the point.

The 18m given by KO to a third party though I think might have already gone through the market.