Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[togglebrush] 19/11/2017 10:14

Total trading volume post merger as recorded on ADVFN is
_130,780,668 with a one day maximum of 33,205,564 and a median of 991,275 to date
'
Assuming each deal is a discrete buy or sell divide by 2 to get shares changing hands
'
POST 2nd October and the max to date is same. Date is A5 RNS start busy period
Daily trading volumes as per ADVFN
'
__86,601,112 total to date with same maximum from start busy period
___3,098,860 is top quartile (Q3)
___2,388,929 is median
___1,900,324 is bottom quartile (Q1)
'
Scaling up the PRE Merger median trade 503,097 we get 896,075 to target for post merger
ESTIMATE of post 2nd October EXCESS gives roughly 1,500,000 volume or 750,000 shares per day. Earlier I suggested that 120 million shares in KAZ may be for sale. By New Year I now expect 60 million or half of my estimate to have been sold.
(15 million on 2 Oct, then 15 million to date, and possible 30 million after)
IMHO

[konil] 19/11/2017 09:59

harrissen, good post. sums up the holding period we seem to be in.

a major holder with over 3% would have to declare change in holding (up or down) at 1% intervals, assuming rules are followed, but this is aim.

3% is c.51m shares and 1% is c.17m shares. even with the relatively large scale trades we've seen recently i doubt a single party has been behind all of them, allowing for at least some 'normal' market activity. bwdik.

toggle may provide update in due course as he keeps an eye on such things.

[harrissen] 19/11/2017 03:29

Ultimately, the price of a barrel of oil dictates what profit an oil producer banks. 'A rising tide floats all boats' as the price of oil continues to creep up.

Each explorer/producer has it's own break even point. If you get a break even price for CASP it will allow for a guess at the net profit they are making.

At the moment MMs are trading this at a minute profit margin. If they were not accommodating some influential parties the spread would be many times what it is now.
There is also the question of unmatched spread bets coming on to the market. I don't spread bet but I know they have to offload some bets they have not matched.

If there is a major holder selling then we will get RNSed when he has finished selling. A major holder selling may have nothing to do with having inside info. Folk become distressed sellers for all sorts of reasons mostly domestic reasons or making bad investments elsewhere.
The MMs seem to be finding the buyers first and then drip feed the seller's shares to match the buys before close. If I wasn't already fully invested here I would buy more, I think the present share price is a give away entry price that will not be available again.

[konil] 18/11/2017 14:15

toggle, interesting numbers on the pipeline. 4.8m gallons is 114,000 barrels i think so that's enough to be getting on with i guess! 90 days for 40km build and test sounds very quick but i guess it depends on terrain?




its been slow for news recent weeks but surmising on the feedback, we should have some news by jan on most of the following;
deeps a5, a6, 801, a8 spud
shallows 808, 146

if not, i can't see how they intend to deliver what they have said they will, especially a5, a6, 801 flowing by xmas!

[steveh8] 18/11/2017 13:30

Was thinking they could be rolling the stock, keeping a cap on it till everyone gets fed up or possibly shorting it Smarty but don't really understand how the rolling works in practice or where they got the stock from if shorting. I'm sure there was some talk of them controlling the GKP share price some while ago now and that's why I put 2 and 2 together when I saw that post. Was very careful of the words I used in my first post with regards to that organisation.

[xclusive2] 18/11/2017 12:36

Steve,Re GS, I had the same thought.Harrissen,Some PI selling but the chunks are sizeable and I believe it is a large holder, only way we find out is by disclosure. Games being played and PI's are pretty insignificant in the bigger picture.Just looking at other Kazakh players like NOG and trying to compare and understand financials and fundamentals. £650m m/cap, loads of production with targets of 100000 bopd by 2020 highly geared, loads of debt from refinancing and hedging the oil price. Costs of exploration are higher but gives you an understanding of future challenges of oil production. Far less return from individual well productivity but I've only scanned over it. Worth a good look.

[steveh8] 18/11/2017 10:54

I saw on someone's feedback from the investor evening on here that Goldman Sachs had taken an interest in Casp which made me cringe. Would not surprise me if they don't have a hand in the current selling in some way

[timberwolf3] 18/11/2017 10:52

David , Bull and Simon - Many thanks for your feedback from investors evening, some great information obtained, wish i could of made it.

Full steam ahead to get that reserves report done, will unlock funding door.

[togglebrush] 18/11/2017 09:12

FWIW Basic research for scale; Pipeline with a 20 inch diameter pipe at 110,000 bopd
with estimated velocity of 1 m/s it is about 200.000 gph or 4,8 mil gallons per day.
'
Construction and testing takes less than 90 days after planning etc for 40 kilometres
'
Errors and Omission excepted

[harrissen] 18/11/2017 01:43

The sellers imo are PIs who bought just before the last spike and are panicking now as they watch their gains diminish as each day goes by. It is a natural reaction for those who do not research their investment properly and are not aware of what potential there is here to make life changing gains if they only hold on a little longer.

[harrissen] 18/11/2017 01:33

credock
17 Nov '17 - 21:12 - 2559 of 2560 0 0

Because i have a lot less in my pot than when i bought in at 12.5 thats why



........................


That's a chance you take when you try to trade short term for a quick profit.

[xclusive2] 17/11/2017 21:44

Makes no sense that Kazakhs are selling to avoid CGT. Why would they sell to save 30 %tax when you know that by not selling that the share price will appreciate and they get a far better return regardless of taxation ? If they're plan was to buck back in volume come Jan, the share price would fly as everybody would have the same idea and limited selling. Makes no sense unless these Kazakhs are selling and moving on and that also makes no sense if the story is to be believed.Very odd.

[credock] 17/11/2017 21:12

Because i have a lot less in my pot than when i bought in at 12.5 thats why

[harrissen] 17/11/2017 19:52

credock
17 Nov '17 - 19:45 - 2557 of 2557 0 0

No matey its just true fact.its dropped 7p already so why cant it drop another 2 ??



...........................


Unless you are trading it what difference does it make where the price is now?

[credock] 17/11/2017 19:45

No matey its just true fact.its dropped 7p already so why cant it drop another 2 ??

[hotdeal] 17/11/2017 18:59

Credock

Are you smoking the Wacky Backy again

If Casp goes to 7p to 8p then I'll have another million

[captainfatcat] 17/11/2017 18:18

Thanks for the feedback from the presentation guys all the ducks look to be lining up

Tick Tock

[credock] 17/11/2017 17:20

One or two people bragging about buying at 10p etc but if we don't get good news on A5 next week this could be back to 7p- 8p by then

[steveh8] 17/11/2017 15:41

Yep all those trades are buys

[bwakem] 17/11/2017 15:37

I just added 100k shares and it shows as a sell @ 10.99p

[davidblack] 17/11/2017 14:21

That's what they said in March 1965!

[xclusive2] 17/11/2017 13:59

The road show has definitely sparked interest and new money washing out the old. Just a shame that this tax change is happening now as we'd have far less selling.

[davidblack] 17/11/2017 13:50

They are looking to have 10,000 barrels in very short order, that's $200,000 a day. No need to do anything too clever just collect the cash and put two thirds of the focus on the shallow wells and watch the cash flow grow.

Whilst they are no confident they know how to drill the deeps they really do know they can drill out the shallow like clockwork apparently.

[konil] 17/11/2017 13:33

smarty, i'm banking on oraz not letting the dilution happen at this level! they will need cash but oraz and chums are best placed to finesse the balance between minimal dilution and using upcoming cashflow. forward sales will help. he (his children) and satyl have massive stakes here and every bit of dilution will be a big hit for them so my guess is they will do utmost to minimise that. and my preference would be to work within cash for the time being, even if slower, especially with share price in the gutter.

as regards the selling, if recent comments about it being related to cgt issues starting 1st january are on the mark, then come 31st dec the selling taps will be abruptly turned off. let's see.

lots of action upcoming, a8 could be a teaser with 6 months to td, but overall tremendous 12 months ahead here.