Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[dipla] 17/11/2017 11:21

what is this to prove?

[bullinachinashop3] 17/11/2017 11:03

yep thanks David - it was all there. A5 - wow

[steveh8] 17/11/2017 11:02

Someone just posted a video of the flaring over on LSE pretty impressive stuff. Link below if it works otherwise just pop over there and use that link.

[davidblack] 17/11/2017 10:56

Ok the good bits from last night which were not mentioned by others:

Firstly MJF current the oily area is seen as 10 sq km. It is open to expand on all sides and is likely to grow substantially. On the basis of the current 10 sq km they think the area should have 20 wells with more as the acreage grows. There has been no fall off on the rate of production on any of the existing wells and they do not expect any. At one point they had a spreadsheet with 25 year oil revenues! So the field is going to be long lived. Lastly they are not looking at any deep targets below MJF.

Clearly MJF is the cash flow machine and it can fund all their exploration as these new wells come in at an expected 500 bopd. So 10,000 bopd at $35 net is $10m a month!

The star of the night was the shortly to be spudded A8. The reason is that they showed us the seismic and explain there were three potential pay zones. A shallow on near surface a second at 4,500m which is part of the same horizon as A5. But here was the plum, there is a third target at 5,300m which is as big or bigger than the 4,500m target. Could this be our Tengiz lottery ticket? They don't know but are very excited about it. To get to 4,500m will take 6 months, 5,300m obviously a bit longer.

The second star was on the same seismic map 12km along KO indicated where a possible A9 well would be drilled with the same 3 target horizons. Oh and there was a third drill likely between the two if this came in. Clearly this has huge upside.

On why they think they can now drill to 4,500m successfully they think they now know which additives to use to control the mud and have crews who know how.

Lastly something that really caught my eye. An old Soviet well 54 at South Yelemas was retested for additional horizons. They found on at 1,400m which was higher up. This is a thick layer of dolomite which they are going to drill using a horizontal drill extending 1600m. This if it comes in will be very productive and cheap at $3m. It would open up a complete new shallow field potentially?

All very very positive with oil possible from both the two deeps before 2018? Just one at 4,000 would be a nice Christmas present.

KO shifted his shares to his children to avoid Capital taxes, something he needed to do before 1st Jan taxwise and my guess is before those two deeps came good.

[konil] 17/11/2017 10:28

bull, yes for a tiddler like casp, the increase in reserves will be a monumental value add.

[konil] 17/11/2017 10:27

if, as all feedback suggests it is, this is bona fide and no skeletons, this has to be one of the biggest timebombs on the market, just waiting for the market to catch up.

to borrow a couple of smarty's phrases...
'fill yer boots'
'tic toc tic toc'

[bullinachinashop3] 17/11/2017 10:19

hi konil- oh yeah that was the other thing
- Gaffey want to do a reserves update once MJF and the deeps are flowing.
- This could be the key to unlocking the share price value.
- They are delighted and surprised by MJF
- the report from WHI was very accurate, the analyst spent a week out there
- the manali field has been used by the kazak army for target practive, and the chinese drill for free 50/50 split is not really going well, but no real loss

[konil] 17/11/2017 10:16

bull, thanks for your notes.

for me it has to be the "or just stick with what we have which could easy be 50-100 m a year at int prices" option.

i said earlier we could be looking at over $200m p.a. with 18000bopd at export prices (from shallows and 3 of the 9 planned deeps - which could happen by june if a6 and 801 come good, then other 6 deeps will be upside from there!), so $50m - $100m is extremely conservative.

any buyout offers received once that level of production and associated reserves have been proven will be much much much higher than rushing for a sale sooner.

as for expediting ops through dilutive cash raising, that makes no sense whatsoever when huge step changes are available with each deep drilled being funded by cashflow.

[bullinachinashop3] 17/11/2017 10:12

yeah was a bit of effort, could have done with going home was shattered!

[steveh8] 17/11/2017 10:11

Cheers bull appreciate the effort you have gone to

[bullinachinashop3] 17/11/2017 10:07

hello , sorry yes 1m, per 1km, think they are 40k from the caspian? or maybe closer i cant remember now

[steveh8] 17/11/2017 10:05

Thanks for update bull. Did you mean £1m per km of pipeline?

[bullinachinashop3] 17/11/2017 09:29

Update from the meeting last night - I just put a few notes down typing on my phone yesterday:

- great to see the guys in the flesh, Kuat is obviously a man of great standing
- I thought clive came across really well, like he has in the latest vids
- i kept myself to myself i was tired and not in the mood for chatting to anyone
- a mix of PI's and 1 or 2 fund managers, plus mr and mrs limerick, shes very tasty indeed, all blonde n posh
- 3 routes, he wants investors opionions on either - placing to speed up production/expl/infra, or just stick with what we have which could easy be 50-100 m a year at int prices, or sell up completely at the right price he said with two zeros added to the speed
- he is baffled by the lack of response to A5 - he says it is very special, delay is just down to heavy testing equip company, and also where to store it all!
- he said they turned it off after 4 hours as there was just so much of it, he reiterated how special A5 was
- been doing the rounds in the city
- nothing sinister at all with the share holding rns's just a tax excerise.
- as DB said investors last year said 1. get a deep flowing, 2. get baverstock situ sorted, and there was a 3rd, cant remember what it was now.
- 801, and A6 could easy be flowing by xmas too, rig off there soon. A6 just needs a reperf, not a big deal, the drilling was great.
- he alluded that sinopec werent great, and that the local russians experts were better at controlling mud for deep drills.
- shallows are decent 4000 bopd collectively, not to be sniffed at but he said we will be in the 10s of thousands too, cant understnad the lack of interest
- all big ops in the area, and once flowing we will be ready to be open to dcent offers from them.
- again the only reason for big investment would be to deal with the deeps. just just about handle A5 with local tankers, but anything more then it will need infra, 1k per mile of pipeline.
- locals like working for them cause of lack of hydrogen sulfide
- A5 flow end of next week to begin.
- Also possible an update on one of the shallows cant remember which
- they are basically absolutely delighted with A5, and the deeps in general.
- the license situ is a no brainer, they are delighted with the outcome, and confused about strange messages from certain PI's about it. its all good news, can explore and sell at int prices at the same time.
- the seller has stopped for now, not entirely sure why they are selling perhaps for personal reasons.

[steveh8] 17/11/2017 09:08

From the dummy trades I did this morning harrissen all those trades at 11.125 are buys

[davidblack] 17/11/2017 08:38

What I drew from that is that from Jan 1st any Kazakh who needed a few pennies will be much less inclined to sell because it’s no longer tax free money. That happened here in the UK in 1965 when James Callaghan introduced Capital Gains to the UK, it stopped share trading being like a trip to the ATM, not that they existed at the time!

[harrissen] 17/11/2017 08:32

The tax issue may account for the tight spread in some way. The mms are at it again today :- 'sell'= 11.125p, - 'buy'= 11.24p..

[xclusive2] 17/11/2017 08:22

Good ole Fattygas does it again with ANGS news and UKOG dropping. Pump and dump, pump, dilute and dump but peeps will never learn.Re our current share price We should be flying with a minimal free float but our seller is still here and we're not moving until they desist.

[davidblack] 17/11/2017 08:19

I do t think they think they said anything new. But there was detail there that give more veracity than comes over than on the shortened presentation on the website.

Here is one point to kick you off:

KO’s recent transfer on most of his shares to his two adult children was driven by tax changes coming in from the first of January in Kazakhstan where from 1 Jan any intergenerational to you’re heirs is subject to capital transfer taxes. Doing it now was a tax free event.

The implications are that from now on when any Kazakh national sells that there will be tax to pay in the new year. It struck me this could be the source of recent selling by non director parties who are below the 3% threshold and don’t need to disclose. If correct then that means this selling will stop at some point shortly.

Additionallly Baverstock still hold the other big Kazakh parties shares so the selling is unlikely to be them as the reporting would have been triggered. Unless they are very creative!

Off to check some facts now.

[xclusive2] 17/11/2017 08:13

DB st co,Thanks for feedback.Hallow,Don't believe there is a need as nothing new came out.South Yelemes shallows - already knownA5 flowing - knownWaiting for heavy duty testing eqpt - knownFund raising - whether to or not, already disclosed Other operational news - noneSeller -?I'm none the wiser re the real need to dilute, what infrastructure costs. Speeding up drilling campaign ? But that would need to be done post current deeps when share price is much higher, they know that. They'll get a take over approach when a sensible P2 number hit. Money needs to be spent on the key immediate opportunity.Get 3 deeps & A8 flowing commerciallyKeep proving up MJFCPR reportThey'll raise money then but I believe they'll be up for sale as soon as they deliver a few wins and before further appraisals as any buyer will want to exploit the future opp and not pay top dollar.

[hiddendepths] 17/11/2017 08:10

DB made it clear that the information "is in the public domain" if you know where to look and can interpret it so no RNS required. That's long been an excellent Get Out of Jail Free card for companies doing presentations!

[hallow] 17/11/2017 07:56

Not everyone went to the meeting so a summary of information provided needs to be in the public domain.

[dipla] 17/11/2017 07:53

nothing new to add.....

[hallow] 17/11/2017 07:49

No RNS this morning after yesterdays presentation,how strange

[konil] 17/11/2017 04:07

simon and david, thanks for all the feedback. all sounds very promising indeed.

david, look forward to your further notes.

[scoobydoo99] 16/11/2017 23:11

Thanks for the updates, nothing that I can see to give any new concerns, still chanting Clive's mantra ,'we're sitting on something pretty special' - and I do believe this.