Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[konil] 23/11/2017 17:32

toggle, some good points! but as for dreaming...that's all there has been here so far.


steve, what's the gist of it please.

edit: no probs steve, i've had a look.

[davidblack] 23/11/2017 17:30

Is this discussion of selling shares by the concert parties missing the point?

KO was absolutely clear that he thought the Company had huge upside. His transfer to his children, essentially a family portfolio switch. It was not a sale.

The other concert party shareholders you can be certain know of KO's optimism. They certainly know that any sales by them into the market cost them their upside in exchange for a small tax break?

After the presentation it was made pretty clear that these large Kazakh holders, who had been there a long time, were very keen to make the big profits they see themselves as due, especially after being in the play for five to seven years.

So this talk of them selling might be missing the point.

The 18m given by KO to a third party though I think might have already gone through the market.

[togglebrush] 23/11/2017 17:09

Konil … Don’t dream too soon.
'
There are 4 Kaz Public holidays (see header) and 3.5 closed Stock Exchange days in December which leaves some 18 Trading days before the KAZ CGT deadline.
'
Yesterday was for one in Concert Party, (a person acting in concert with Kuat Oraziman due to their professional relationship). That was a large holding before the Foreign Exchange cut and based on loan supplied to support the company.
'
There are possible four others who supplied loans back as early as 2010 and have slightly smaller “Other Concert Party” holdings which could total some 50 million shares. They may or may not have similar inclinations. My guess is that CC and KO put a lot of effort to get the absorption of yesterday’s sale. With the holiday season fast approaching it may be difficult to arrange another repeat of yesterday. I think the possibility of “Other Concert Party” sale is getting less possible but it is there.
‘
KAZ private investors may still be willing to sell in quantity before 29th December.

[steveh8] 23/11/2017 17:02

Some comments from an email received from Clive, posted over on the LSE board for anyone who is interested

[konil] 23/11/2017 16:30

disappointing action today, was hoping for strong run up after sells declared yesterday suggesting end of programme(s).

hopefully all 'adjustments' now out the way and next good news should see run up with no more than the 'normal' profit takers exiting, setting the stage for further gains.

no a5 rns this week! must be next.

[blackbear] 23/11/2017 15:58

Eeww you had LGO what a stinker, I tried to warn investors on the BB

[davidblack] 23/11/2017 14:51

Hopefully I didn't make a fool of myself!

For me I am on a return trip to Caspian as was in both Max and Roxy a decade or more ago. Max was at £2 a one point!

So the meeting was a time to reeducate myself but I think I picked up on things that others maybe just didnt hear.

The first of those being well 54 an old Soviet producer is going to be reworked for a new very promising horizon much nearer to surface. They are going to horizontally drill it and are clearly very excited about it if you ask. KO was very cheerful about it. That may crack open a whole new shallow zone which is very productive. They are looking of having 1600m of drilling in the potential payzone.

Also the second deep zone on A8 from the seismic slide they said was "Very Interesting", potentially something as big as A5 or much bigger. The seismic there looks like a very wide dome.

My posting from the day after the meeeting

"Ok the good bits from last night which were not mentioned by others:

Firstly MJF current the oily area is seen as 10 sq km. It is open to expand on all sides and is likely to grow substantially. On the basis of the current 10 sq km they think the area should have 20 wells with more as the acreage grows. There has been no fall off on the rate of production on any of the existing wells and they do not expect any. At one point they had a spreadsheet with 25 year oil revenues! So the field is going to be long lived. Lastly they are not looking at any deep targets below MJF.

Clearly MJF is the cash flow machine and it can fund all their exploration as these new wells come in at an expected 500 bopd. So 10,000 bopd at $35 net is $10m a month!

The star of the night was the shortly to be spudded A8. The reason is that they showed us the seismic and explain there were three potential pay zones. A shallow on near surface a second at 4,500m which is part of the same horizon as A5. But here was the plum, there is a third target at 5,300m which is as big or bigger than the 4,500m target. Could this be our Tengiz lottery ticket? They don't know but are very excited about it. To get to 4,500m will take 6 months, 5,300m obviously a bit longer.

The second star was on the same seismic map 12km along KO indicated where a possible A9 well would be drilled with the same 3 target horizons. Oh and there was a third drill likely between the two if this came in. Clearly this has huge upside.

On why they think they can now drill to 4,500m successfully they think they now know which additives to use to control the mud and have crews who know how.

Lastly something that really caught my eye. An old Soviet well 54 at South Yelemas was retested for additional horizons. They found on at 1,400m which was higher up. This is a thick layer of dolomite which they are going to drill using a horizontal drill extending 1600m. This if it comes in will be very productive and cheap at $3m. It would open up a complete new shallow field potentially?"

[captainfatcat] 23/11/2017 14:43

hope this stays at these levels for a week or two longer I would like to tuck away a few more.

[bullinachinashop3] 23/11/2017 14:30

Hi David - yes, thought so , in my minds eye i had you down as that fella.

Thanks for all your input

[bullinachinashop3] 23/11/2017 14:07

David were you at the investor evening?

[davidblack] 23/11/2017 13:54

Our steady seller is still busy lobbing stock but there seems to be a bidder collecting on the other side.

[xclusive2] 23/11/2017 11:57

Fundamentals are one thing but a sake price is another which will factor in future opportunity. Value in the ground at 5 bucks and P2 at 10, I'm hoping that they buy additional acreage that they can start to prove up and greatly increase future value.

[konil] 23/11/2017 11:02

in slide 24 (nov/dec newsflow) they forgot to mention a8 spud and 808 testing.

[hallow] 23/11/2017 09:03

I think we will all make a lot of money with Casp.

[maxim1999] 23/11/2017 08:45

Was looking at other oil stocks. For get P2 at $10 , P1 trades at $5.

[captainfatcat] 23/11/2017 07:42

Put me down for 16.75 please

[konil] 23/11/2017 06:11

smarty, yes it is impossible, even stats on historical deals (where available) cannot be directly comparable due to the variables, but my earlier 'happy pills' numbers were based simply on $10/bbl for p2 and 10x revenue.

both numbers are punchy but then i've not assumed further addition for 'blue sky' on the unexplored/undeveloped potential (elephant) of the acreage.

also its onshore, relatively low costs even for deeps, and close to lots of infrastructure.

and there is no debt to speak of.

and bearing in mind any buyout will need to include 'buyer's premium' to tempt a sale, especially if company already pumping out oodles of free cash.

so, 350mmboe = $3.5b and $120m p.a. = $1.2b, total $4.7b = $2.76, £2.09.

with 45% holding, oraz family will need $1.33 to hit a billion and $2.66 for each child to have a billion.

according to the spin they say they are planning for a total of 9 deeps so far. if they get 2 or 3 deeps flowing and achieve 350mmboe then $1.33 seems low.

long way to go to achieve those bopd and p2, but if they do, then in the end it may simply depend on how ambitious they are and whether they can generate a competition for ownership.

[xclusive2] 22/11/2017 23:17

K,http://www.spe.org/industry/docs/GuidelinesEvaluationReservesResources_2001.pdfImpossible to really value Casper as so many variables and we know that the P2 could be multiples of 350mboe given time. They won't sell this until they are in a position to sell the bloo sky scenario. I'm expecting KO's family to become billionaires so you can calculate my exit price. If the 3 deeps flow no A8 and 802 follow successfully, we'll be looking at a valuation well in excess of 1bn and there will be the elephant opportunity to increase potential sale value.In my business it's easy, x EBITDA, not so easy with an OE company. 5-6

[therealenigmatic] 22/11/2017 23:02

Share price as at Dec 24th = 3 pence after disastrous A5 flow testing RNS. Merry Christmas Caspers.

[xclusive2] 22/11/2017 20:39

K,So you want a valuation on Casper at 10000 bopd and 350k P2 ?Been trying to value NOG which is producing shedloads but higher extraction cost and indebted and highly geared.I'll do me sums

[konil] 22/11/2017 20:26

smarty, could you give me your opinion on a valuation on the following.

an oil e&p company operating in kaz with p2 reserves 350mmboe, production 10,000bopd, 80% to export at $37, 20% local at $17 (revenue $119m p.a.).

[xclusive2] 22/11/2017 20:03

Year end calls to date. Smarty - 15Hot Deal - 16.5BlackBear - 17Roy - 18NY Boy - 20SteveH - 21Jayrh - 50Toggle,Could you put the scores in the header ?

[steveh8] 22/11/2017 19:47

21p for me