Caspian Energy Share Discussion Threads

[seagreen] 30/10/2007 10:37

Anthoer similar share with a huge imbedded value in but without the rigs etc is GED they recently announced they were in takeover talks ...but this might come to nowt or they might get a jv

please make your own minds up though as in the absence of any corporate news it is a hold until they do something....buttechnicaly it could be worht £3 with the right financing and rigs...without it then it will remain at £1.20

[seagreen] 30/10/2007 10:34

Extract from and old Mirabaud note and please note it is more than a year ago ...so caveat emptor

OIL & GAS RESEARCH
14 FEBRUARY 2006
Caspian Energy [CEK LN] Price: 131p Rating: Buy
• Caspian Energy ("Caspian") has a 50% indirect
interest in Aral Petroleum ("Aral"), through which it
has the right to explore and develop the "North Block",
a 3,458 km2 area, located in the vicinity of the
pre-Caspian basin in the Aktobe region of Kazakhstan.
• Caspian intends to focus on the exploration and
development of the North Block using the latest
Western techniques to prove up the maximum amount
of reserves from the minimum number of wells.
• Caspian's first exploration well, EZ-301, reached
a total depth of 4,846 meters and encountered
approximately 101 meters of net oil pay in Middle
Carboniferous reservoirs.
• The well is being tested in two intervals. The lower
interval, the primary target in the well, tested at rates
of 2,532 bopd of 39° API gravity oil, following acidizing.
• The upper zone, a secondary target, is currently being
acidized and testing is expected to be completed
in the near future.
• The logging programme for well EZ-301 has shown
that the well is 38 meters updip to EZ-213, the offset
producing well, and that apparent productive intervals
were by-passed in earlier Soviet era wells.
• Caspian is therefore investigating a programme to add
production through major workovers on EZ-213, and
a near offset plugged well, EZ-211.
• Caspian's second exploration location, EZ-302, which
was spudded on 25 December 2005, is approximately
3.6 km southwest of well EZ-301, has set intermediate
casing at 3,003 meters, and is expected to reach total
depth (TD) before the end of March 2006.
• Caspian estimates that it will require funding of
approximately US$45 million for 2006. Of this amount,
it raised US$16 million on the 10th February by way
of privately placed secured convertible debentures.
• These funds will be used to complete EZ-302, and to
drill and complete EZ-303. The funds will also provide
the finances for the "acid fracs" of three wells in East
Zhagabulak and to provide general working capital.
Shares in Issue 84.3

Market Cap £110.46 m

52 Week Range 58.62 - 155p

Daily Volume (avg.) 34,390

RECOMMENDATION

• An adjusted Probability Valuation using an EVA Net
Back of US$9.49/bbl on a US$45/bbl Brent benchmark,
results in a fully diluted value of £2.04/share.
• A Field Analysis for Zhagabulak based on a 750 bopd,
1,000 bopd, 1,500 bopd, and 2,000 bopd scenario
flow rates, and a 15% Discount Rate results
in a valuation range from £2.46/share to £3.55/share.
On our base case of 1,000 bopd, a value
of £2.59/share for Zhagabulak is calculated.
• An adjusted valuation, combining the Probability
Value ascribed to the Baktygarn and Kozdysay
prospects, and the Zhagabulak base case Field
Valuation, from which an additional corporate risk
discount of 20% has been deducted, gives a fully
diluted value for Caspian of £2.85/share.
• Caspian Energy is rated a BUY.

[seagreen] 30/10/2007 10:25

If it gets through 55p then it breaks a down trend and t might go to a quid pdq whch will setill behalf its embeded value

[katsy] 30/10/2007 10:19

why the 150% rise in 2 days here?

[corpraiders] 30/10/2007 10:16

Wahay!! - we have lift off - just watch CEK fly, its been a long time coming but with oil prices at these levels even the Caspian Sea monster can fly.

Just watch the crazy bird go - check it out:

[cleo1601] 30/10/2007 10:04

HD
Meant to say: only another 11p before I break even. Never thought I'd be saying that (but it gives you some idea of my manic topping up behaviour in the interim!)

[cleo1601] 30/10/2007 10:02

Hi HD
Good to see this action, and Max also, eh?

seagreen
You can see the Stockhouse bullboard easily enough, but it looks as if nobody really knows, just speculation about November drilling and share sale to fund it. Sudden move certainly coincided with a huge dump of shares at only 33.5cents

[seagreen] 30/10/2007 09:57

These J curves can really go to the moon as there is no spare stock out there dug around yesterday vague talks about a jv/partnership/access to riggs to get this production going ...no one seems quite sure...seems to have started off in canada so if anyone has acess to canadian bill boards we might find out more from there..but view is it is still very undervalued

[hiddendepths] 30/10/2007 09:43

As the company hasn't put out a statement saying "We have noted the recent move in the share price and know of no reason....." I guess they do know of such a reason. We'll find out soon, no doubt. I knocked out a few (20% of my holding) on the first mark-up but was suspicious that I got a price above the mid-price so I decided to keep the rest.

I wonder if the Chinese have made an approach. The acreage is much better than CEK's nightmarish operating performance would indicate.

[easson] 29/10/2007 21:35

Good to see afurther rise of 25% again in canada - should see us moving up a little more tomorrow

[seagreen] 29/10/2007 15:24

just seen a mirabaud report from 2006 with a valuation of £2 ho hum got a tiny smidge

[stephanie_m] 29/10/2007 13:07

Stuart
Your having a good day here and over at MXP. Well Done
SM

[cleo1601] 29/10/2007 12:48

Could just be that they are going to start drilling again imminently and they sold a heap of shares to pay for it (imo). All watchers/lurkers who feared cash would run out know game is back on. As I understand, the next round will be shallow, so not so expensive or technically challenging.

Lovely to see the blue for whatever reason.

[ju1cester] 29/10/2007 12:41

I'm very surprised they haven't issued a statement to the market on the price movement.

[stuart14] 29/10/2007 11:49

That makes sense, and follows what I said before. The U.K MMs are completely following Canada.

[mbugger] 29/10/2007 11:42

look up CEK ticker AND SEE 41K traded today on LSE-AIM,it is here,stuart14.

[stuart14] 29/10/2007 11:26

Is that 41k here or there?

[mbugger] 29/10/2007 11:24

Trading shares today only 41k,so why MMs in Canada marked up this,any views.

[stuart14] 29/10/2007 09:56

The only thing that takes the pi*s is that most of this rise has happened out of market hours, ie, it opened up massively on Friday and again today, so the rise really is due to the MMs following Canada.

[snaptastic] 29/10/2007 09:43

CSH also moving up lately after a large director buy recently and heavy buying.. is there something positive in the pipeline for companies operating in the area i wonder?

[robin_of_loxley] 29/10/2007 09:41

nice to see some blue

[stuart14] 29/10/2007 09:34

Nice recovery here Cleo.

[cleo1601] 27/10/2007 00:12

Stuart, all I can recommend is read everything (I'll refresh myself the minute I get the time) and maybe contact them if you still have specific conerns? I have a good feeling about this right now and think they've quietly funded themselves for the next round of drilling. Last time I looked the cash looked okay - not brilliant, but okay, and I am more concerned about that than the debt at this stage of the game. The only real answer will come from the drillbit and even if they had no debt problems I think it might be a bit dire if the next round is beset by more problems. If it proves easier, debt will not be a problem. Nothing will be a problem that can't be surmounted.

That was a very long-winded way of saying "pay your money and take your choice - or is it chance"?

Lovely to see the volume and rise in Toronto so let's hope for a bit of serious blue on Monday.

[easson] 26/10/2007 17:29

up over 20% again things starting to warm up nicely at last