Caspian Energy Share Discussion Threads

[cleo1601] 17/10/2006 10:42

Thanks drewz, very encouraging. Glad I added at 64! (to help offset my rather rash buy at 172...). Interesting it was marked up 8.3% not more after the pm action on TSX, where I thought it was looking strong at the finish. Maybe we'll have some buys today? I can't afford any more tho, not even at these bargain prices.

[drewz] 16/10/2006 22:40

Good stuff, Cleo. I have every faith this company will be back hitting new highs next year. And that's just for starters.

They are sitting on a lake of oil in the North Block - not as much as MXP maybe (they're sitting on a sea of the stuff!), but a good sized lake nonetheless, and worth several multiples of the current market cap as they drill it up to reserve status.

[cleo1601] 16/10/2006 16:30

Nice to see we're up 3% on TSX
and finished up quite a bit more... fingers permanently crossed

[cleo1601] 10/10/2006 16:15

up 5/3% on TSX this pm

[robin_of_loxley] 07/10/2006 23:32

Hi guys, still watching here.....quietly...

[cleo1601] 07/10/2006 15:27

xxnjr & drewz
Thank you both very much. I have turned from an exuberant speculator to a reluctant Buy&Holder... having AST, CEK, MXP, VOG, as well as a few others including, happily MOG. I sold out of JKX, BUR & DNX to buy these... I do also have some TLW. Because my earlier excesses are forcing me to decide what to hold and what to cull, I am needing to learn to do my own research in a horse before the cart type of way and the generous help of more knowledgeable posters is invaluable to this process.

I'm just off to batten down the hatches! Good luck both

[drewz] 07/10/2006 15:16

Cleo, the other bit of my long post which got lost was to echo the sentiments above of xxnjr, namely that it is very early days and it takes a much longer time to unlock full value from these junior oil explorers than people normally give them chance to do.

I would not buy this type of share without expecting to hold it for 5 years plus. The same goes for MXP, AEX, AST, OEX, PANR, VOG etc

You look at decent mid cap producers now like JKX, Burren, Soco, Premier, Dana, Tullow - and it takes them some time to get production up and running at a decent lick, but then the strong cash flow feeds into compound growth, either from new wells being sunk or new acquisitions.

So it really is worth sticking with those junior oilers with good assets/good management even if they appear to be making a slow start.

[xxnjr1] 07/10/2006 12:25

As if by magic..... Cleo1601.

I used to be next door at Alibekmola with Nelson Resources before they got taken out by Lukoil. That proved to be a very good field, so maybe CEK are on to something here but I sense its early days yet. Will keep a watching brief.

[cleo1601] 07/10/2006 00:39

drewz
what can I say besides a huge thank-you and I'm sorry you had a waste of your time in helping me. Got in late from bridge and tried to catch up, only to find that many posts have disappeared into the ether. the post from TSX and your precis of your own post to "Q1 2007" are plenty to feed into the feverish melting pot of my poor brain.

All the very best with this and all your investments.

[drewz] 06/10/2006 22:10

This was one of the more informed comments over on the Canadian board this afternoon:

"CEK has logged 252 feet of net pay in the KT1 and KT2 in well 303. That is substantial. It should be a good well.
The fact that CEK is drilling further, down into the Devonian formation, provides a big upside, reserve wise, for it, TMY next door, and the Alibekmola field further west, which all have similar stratigraphic columns, but at different depths due to faulting and old shoreline sloping. [One of the early Soviet wells at E. Zag appears to have been drilled into the Devonian and its log, shown in CEK's March investor presentation, provides good reason to drill the extra 2400 meters to test the lower, Devonian, formation.] The Devonian is very prolific at Tengiz.

CEK will acid stimulate 302 again. This time they will likely use a high strength acid mix, not the light acid wash used the first time and make sure it has sufficient seals to prevent water from migrating from upper parts of the well.

TMY next door has had very good results with high strength, high pressure acid stimulation, much better than the low strength acid matrix attempts it used on 3 wells.

CEK is making good progress, IMHO, and is proving up that E. Zag is a big field. It should have similar success at the field to the north."


ENDS


(TMY is Transmeridian Exploration - another Canadian oiler, I believe).

[drewz] 06/10/2006 21:16

Oh dear, I answered your question at some length, Cleo. It appeared as message #81 prior to the advfn server breakdown.

The server breakdown late this afternoon appears to have chewed it up and eaten it.

Basically I suggested it may be sometime in Q1 2007 before they can declare results of acid stimulation flow tests etc.

I hope this one will flow freely at 2000bopd at least.

[jumbo66] 06/10/2006 16:56

yes agree good time to add when no one eles wants them, after todays news nexed week should be good here good luck all re j[hd]

[cleo1601] 06/10/2006 16:25

drewz, that would be wonderful. How long do you expect it to take before we know? and what would be a conservative estimate of a "significant re-rating"? Because I have a hefty position in from 172 (but have averaged down a little!) I need to decide on some exit strategy and would be grateful for any opinions.

[drewz] 06/10/2006 16:22

Well it looks like they could have a very very large reservoir here, but can they get the oil to flow at a decent rate?

If they can get the downhole engineering right, then there will surely be a significant re-rating here.

So yes, Cleo, I agree this ought to be the bottom. But it may bump along here for a while longer until there is confirmation that the oil is in place and they can make it flow. Lots of upside if/when that happens.

[cleo1601] 06/10/2006 16:17

running out of steam again but I hope this means we've seen the bottom?

[surfer2] 06/10/2006 15:44

the spread is nearly 10% thats why its up 25%
considering aim is doing so badly they could encourage more shoppers

[easson] 06/10/2006 15:36

Drewz very welcome

[drewz] 06/10/2006 15:34

A welcome bit of good news at last.

80m of potential pay at that depth sounds very promising.

[easson] 06/10/2006 15:31

Up 25% now should move some more here shortly

[cleo1601] 06/10/2006 15:23

8.9% up on TSX is very nice

[easson] 06/10/2006 15:22

This share over hear justs seems to mirror what happens in Canada - levelled off a bit now

[easson] 06/10/2006 15:19

Sp moving here now TSX a present equivelent 69p @ present hopefully more to come

[cleo1601] 06/10/2006 15:18

reacting a bit now - almost back to my lowest level top-up!

[cleo1601] 06/10/2006 15:13

thanks easson; we must have brought it luck by paying it some attention! What time does TSX open please, and I'll watch it too. tia