Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[pyueck] 19/11/2017 22:49

Dealy come on ‘a few one off events’. What like working out that the last 10 years of profits were actually huge losses?

How do we know what margins the company has in reality? Is the business even fundamentally profitable at all?

Maybe it can be, and they certainly have a large order book. At present it’s just absolute fire fighting, everybody knows the next few months will terribly dilute shareholders. The questions are simple a)will it survive and b) how much of what remains will existing shareholders own. If I had to predict I would say a) 60% yes b) 20%.

[dealy] 19/11/2017 21:41

This is not a ponzi scheme. It is a real company with normal margins. It was hit by a few one-off events. The future is likely to be normal

[kirk 6] 19/11/2017 21:33

Excellent news if true back to 40p?

[excell1] 19/11/2017 21:09

Carillion pension fund possibly to take a stake in the company.

[mad foetus] 19/11/2017 20:31

And it only won the contracts on the basis that it could do them cheaply by screwing over the subcontractors, who will no longer play ball due to CLLNs financial problems. If they have to pay subcontractors in full and upfront their business model doesn't work.

[fenners66] 19/11/2017 20:24

dealy >
"Best hope for bondholders and all creditors is to leave the company to sort out its mess."

You will be telling them next to close their eyes , put their fingers in their ears, pencils up their noses and underpants on their heads......

[cc2014] 19/11/2017 19:14

Reverse factoring is one of the reasons they are in this mess because the bond holders didn't pay enough attention to it and didn't pull in the spiralling debt earlier.

I suggest it's also another reason the situation is difficult to resolve as the given the level of debt the banks won't be so willing to a)provide the factoring b)will want a greater premium

[dealy] 19/11/2017 18:07

They could try factoring

[mbmiah] 19/11/2017 17:59

So basically this has plenty of high value contracts but no upfront payments.

[diku] 19/11/2017 17:29

This is a kick around share now...

[dealy] 19/11/2017 17:21

Best hope for bondholders and all creditors is to leave the company to sort out its mess. That will take a few months so unlikely anything will happen until March other than grinding out improvements in the cost Base and collecting cash.

[fenners66] 19/11/2017 17:14

dealy stop harping on with your fantasy £5 bn revenue it has already declined and after any asset sales if anyone wants them it will be much closer to £ 4.2 bn debt of £ 1.2bn .......

[deanroberthunt] 19/11/2017 13:29

either a massive D4E which will kill it for 5-10 years from a shareholders perspective or bust....depends if the lenders/bondholders feel there's much value in it's assets...

[jyd3082] 19/11/2017 13:26

It's only friend is the Funeral Director

[deanroberthunt] 19/11/2017 12:45

and there'll be plenty more projects later in the lifecycle but won with the same crew that will need to be be written down heavily

[deanroberthunt] 19/11/2017 12:44

I can't see thee government stepping in like it did with the banks, it's big but not too important or big to fail...with the banks it was, and the macro economic backdrop was dire, so they and no choice.

if this fails, the contracts can be passed on to Balfours, or Kier, and many others....

[kirk 6] 19/11/2017 11:12

Looks like this will gap higher tomorrow

[dealy] 19/11/2017 11:01

With 5 billion in revenue there is a 500m working capital requirement even if everything is going well. That alone counts for a large part of the debt fluctuations

[fenners66] 19/11/2017 10:33

When they declare full year average net debt will be in the range £875 to £925m the figure for actual year end net debt is even worse than we thought when you calculate it.

Average net debt first 6 months £694m

Average net debt full 12 months £900m

So AVERAGE net debt second 6 months is £1106m

That is average in the second half !

What is the PEAK net debt in the second half ?? !!

£ 1.2 Bn ? £ 1.3Bn?

And you think they can fix that so easily ?

Fantasist !

[cc2014] 19/11/2017 10:23

I don't know if this is rumour or fact but I find the idea of CLLN pension scheme taking shares in lieu of the deficit appalling for all those in the scheme. Maybe I have misunderstood.

[cc2014] 19/11/2017 10:15

So, I went and took a proper look at payables today.

From the interims account payables are £2.000m.

Also from the interims, underlying turnover (income) is £2.104. Let's call that £4.2m for the full year.

So, a quick calculation shows that trade creditors are half of turnover or 173 days.

But, that doesn't work as we need to allow for the monthly payroll. So, I went to get that figure from the interims but I couldn't find it reported. I gave up looking and couldn't be bothered to go look at the year end figures. Anyway, as a vague guess let's say payroll is 30% of total costs.

If you allow for this trade creditors would appear to be around 260 days.

Any thoughts? Other than the obvious?


Also, for information the rules on using brought forward tax losses are changing. In future only 50% of the tax loss can be used in any one year.

[dealy] 19/11/2017 10:11

If 3 months from now the rot has stopped and net debt is down to around 700m (after cash collection and some disposal receipts) it will probably be better for shareholders to accept a 30 to 60p per share takeover offer than stump up 300m to stay in the game. That option value means the shares have some value as long as things don't get worse

[fenners66] 19/11/2017 10:05

I have been calling dealy a fantasist for long enough

So dealy have you still got shares in this dog and if so how much are you losing now?

Alternatively he could be short and playing a very smart game..... he keeps posting outrageous statements like an underlying £300m Ebitda, knowing full well he cannot articulate the problems of the company and that every time he posts that rubbish a host of people come on here and explain exactly what is wrong with the company.

That way he gets loads of research and posting done without doing the work.

[fenners66] 19/11/2017 09:57

"as an insider at a competitor told me "if we wanted loss making contracts we could write our own".