Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[glenkaz] 17/11/2017 10:52

Good luck russ 🤡👍

[fenners66] 17/11/2017 10:51

Cc2014 it's debt number is being used to confuse . With half year at £675m (?) that means final number North of £1bn - which is what I have been saying for weeks

[russell250] 17/11/2017 10:47

I am selling out completely - take loss on chin - going sit out for while put residual amount into tencent Alibaba and jd.com at 2.30 when usa opens

[glenkaz] 17/11/2017 10:42

Seems stuck on 27 russ mate any views on up or down from here🤔

[russell250] 17/11/2017 10:22

hi glenkaz - have new slippers just delivered very comfy

[glenkaz] 17/11/2017 10:07

Morning 🐜👍

[cc2014] 17/11/2017 10:07

The Board has kept under continuous review the risk that receipts from contract claims and/or disposals forecast to be received during November and December 2017 might slip beyond 31 December 2017. The Group now expects that a combination of delays to certain PPP disposals, a slippage in the commencement date of a significant project in the Middle East and lower than expected margin improvements across a small number of UK Support Services contracts, partially offset by cost savings initiatives realised in the fourth quarter, will lead to profits for the year to 31 December 2017 being materially lower than current market expectations. Given the impact of delays in receipts and disposals, the Group now expects full year average net borrowing in 2017 to be between GBP875m and GBP925m

A couple of points. What does full year average net borrowing mean? Does it mean the average for the last 12 months? Because that's a meaningless number. Does it mean borrowing at the end of the year, because why don't they call it that?

Lower than expected margin improvements. Yeah - like it's that easy just to improve the margin on an urgent basis. These things take time.

Slippage in commencement date - so what they are saying is that starting the project would have generated lots of cash, presumably by getting paid on 15-30 days and paying the supply chain on 60-90. If the blame for breaching their covenants significantly relates to cashflow on one large contract on a £5b turnover business, it's in a serious mess.

[bullet ant] 17/11/2017 10:03

DEALY IS THE ANGEL OF DEATH IN HUMAN FORM.

HOPE THIS HELPS

BA
STEALING IS GOOD




RCTurner217 Nov '17 - 09:29 - 9619 of 9629 3 0
Posters like JAF and dealy are great sell signals.

[bullet ant] 17/11/2017 10:02

I WILL BE CLOSING MY SHORTS
AT 0.9P

ANOTHER BANKRUPTCY FOR DEALY LOOMS


HOPE THIS HELPS


BA
STEALING IS GOOD

[glenkaz] 17/11/2017 09:56

Bounce to 30’s on 🤡✌A039;

[glenkaz] 17/11/2017 09:43

I don’t think many got in at 18p! Even mid 20’s should see 30’s soon imo! Shorts should really take their wad now! Sorry for anyone who held! Let’s hope you recover and the short’s crawl back under the gutters 🤡✌A039;

[supercity] 17/11/2017 09:36

Finger was on the button and held back at 18p...no matter how obvious the company going bust seems I feel it was a missed opportunity for a 50% profit inside an hour today

[glenkaz] 17/11/2017 09:35

Big bounce coming! 🤡👌

[pyueck] 17/11/2017 09:35

Yes sorting out debt is a huge deal.

But isn't the support of bondholders and shareholders dependent on the company convincing both parties that in the future the company will actually be genuinely profitable. It's clear that the previous profits (at least the last 5 years) were a sham.

I like the interim CEO, he seems a straight talking sort of guy. The business has rather surprisingly won a lot of new contracts under his reign. Have these contracts been properly reviewed for profitability, and will reality match forecasts?

Is this genuinely the end of the reality of contracts not matching reality (which is the cause of all the writedowns). Maybe, but the board need to convince the market quick sharp that going forward things have changed.

Even if bondholders and shareholders agree on a round of fundraising, the question then remains what will be left for shareholders. On this I am not as negative as others on this forum. Shareholders can hold creditors over barrel too you know, creditors have no more interest in this one going south than shareholders, in fact currently they have much more to lose.

Yes any debt for equity will deeply dilute existing shareholders. But let's get to reality here, shareholders currently own 100% of a company which is not worth a lot (£120m). They will be better off owning 25% of a company worth £1bn.

So let's not lose sight of reality, shareholders have already lost a lot and this is not going to be recovered any time soon. The idea though that a fundraising issue will wipe shareholders out completely is not likely. The chance of a complete collapse though and the refinancing falling through is possible though.

For me, its a total punt.

[fenners66] 17/11/2017 09:32

stakeholders not shareholders - subtle since the majority stakes are now lenders and the pension trustees

[dealy] 17/11/2017 09:30

Best outcome for all stakeholders will be achieved by giving the management more time to execute the recovery plan. No pulling of plug here

[fenners66] 17/11/2017 09:30

Jean Lemierre - chairman of European bankers congress - just now
" I think investors take risks - but they don't see them "

[rcturner2] 17/11/2017 09:29

Posters like JAF and dealy are great sell signals.

[fenners66] 17/11/2017 09:28

Fill your boots then Dealy - go on bet the house on it, or did you already?

[fenners66] 17/11/2017 09:27

Comical Ali is back !

[kirk 6] 17/11/2017 09:25

Dealy haha come on mate ! Not a big deal!???

[zcaprd7] 17/11/2017 09:23

We might be getting close to the "Ashtead 2.5p" area I highlighted a few weeks ago.In the hands of the bankers now, surely they won't let it go pop...

[sux_2bu] 17/11/2017 09:23

This will soon drift back to the lows, then lower over the coming days.