Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[calahan] 24/11/2017 13:42

Or... Could be speculation of a failure to renegotiate its covenant with their lenders over the weekend which would send the price into free fall and likely suspension.


It's easy to speculate either way. Only snag is that one of these two is pure speculation based on fantasies originating in dreamland. While the other is based on real forthcoming problems that originate from the company itself having informed the market this time last week of a potential end of year covenant breach.

"Based on its latest forecasts, reflecting the items mentioned above, the Board now expects a covenant breach as at 31 December 2017."


I'll leave it to each reader to consider for themselves which one is the most likely to occur (either over this weekend, or a forthcoming weekend in December).

[kirk 6] 24/11/2017 13:26

Could be speculation of a takeover at the weekend which could possible send the price soaring

[wallywoo] 24/11/2017 13:15

lol, syd name one heavily indebted company (which had a lot more debt than assets, and cash flowing out) that ever had a takeover bid.

It might be cherry picked, But NO ONE would be interested in acquiring the whole sum

[syd7777] 24/11/2017 12:52

At its current MC a takeover bid looks a good bet.That bid would need to made at a lot higher share price then it is today.

[srpactive] 24/11/2017 12:03

f66

Yes quite right, I was not expecting such a rise, I was
just mentioning it did when it bounced.

As you say a complete gamble.

[fenners66] 24/11/2017 11:51

srp - a fair comment , its a gamble.
I would think the odds on red or black are better - maybe join an on-line casino?
Not a gambling aficionado but wouldn't red or black be Evens?
What is the chance of this going from 15p to 30p before a major event?

[srpactive] 24/11/2017 10:15

E

Thank you again, yes when it bounced last Friday it
moved from 17p to 28p pretty readily, watching
myself at the moment for a top up, dyor.

Very high risk though, a complete gamble.

[empirestate] 24/11/2017 10:11

unlikely, generally in these overhang situations its a gradual run down of the share price by the market makers to entice buyers in to take up the excess on the sale side.
with an apparent significant short position book this could unwind dramatically at the first sign of the weight on the share price from the seller coming off at the time of clearing.

all good fun, personally sitting on the sidelines waiting for the overhang to clear.

[srpactive] 24/11/2017 10:03

E

Thank you, so you do not see it today then?

[empirestate] 24/11/2017 10:01

LBA appear very keen to get out so if the market makers can't get shot of LBA's lot quickly, which i don't think they will considering how much stock there is to go, i could see mid next week in my crystal ball for 15p

[srpactive] 24/11/2017 09:56

E

What time you envisage a possible test of 15p?

[empirestate] 24/11/2017 09:53

plenty of pressure on the share price from the overhang, could see this go sub 15p if market makers can't shift that 11.9 million soon.

[srpactive] 24/11/2017 09:10

B324

Last Friday it went to 17p at the low point, so you
could be right, but very high risk and WWoo is correct
in his post.

[rcturner2] 24/11/2017 08:57

After each sharp fall the last bunch of idiots disappear and a new bunch arrives.

[wallywoo] 24/11/2017 08:51

lol Calahan, good research.

Personally hate posters that consistently post rubbish. It is a human instinct to buy cheap, and that is why these look so enticing. JUST DON'T, or if you do day trade these and don't hold over night, playing with fire here

[samdb] 24/11/2017 08:37

It won't go bust but it will be majority owned by the banks who will stabilise it and flip it to private equity.

[markycrispy] 24/11/2017 08:36

Can't see this going bust and risking the government contracts but stranger things have happened - I'm in a personal level trying to engage with them to see them software that will enable them to manage the risk on contracts better - has to be a winner

[calahan] 24/11/2017 08:32

5UPERMAN - 17 Jul 2017 - 15:29:16 - 6870 of 9898
These are gonna keep flying for a few days now. BUY.

5UPERMAN - 29 Sep 2017 - 06:15:33 - 8218 of 9898
These are gonna fly. Buy....Buy....Buy. ..

5UPERMAN - 24 Nov 2017 - 08:21:43 - 9897 of 9898
These are gonna fly. BUY.


I guess downwards is technically a direction of air travel. As such I guess that technically, you were correct before and these did indeed fly. Downwards. But why anyone would want to buy a share that was flying downwards I don't know.

[5uperman] 24/11/2017 08:21

These are gonna fly. BUY.

[joshondale] 24/11/2017 04:56

Only gamblers on here now. This might rise 5% intraday now and again! but medium term it's worthless.

[zcaprd7] 24/11/2017 03:09

No, I don't expect a placing, too late for that. I expect a softening of covenants, a renegotiation of contracts (which the whole industry agrees upon, the margins on which are ridiculous), some more disposals, and perhaps the pension gets sorted (one way or another).Then a slow and painful recovery.I'm waiting for 10p though, probably one more bit of bad news to come out... They have turnover, and cashflow, and the government really doesn't want to "Re-procure" all those contracts.

[supercity] 23/11/2017 21:25

200p in late June to 19p in late November - if that doesn't tell you something you might aswell give up

[samdb] 23/11/2017 16:23

Looks like they coiled the spring in the wrong direction.The momentum is to the downside here. I'm short from 29p and running it until there's a proper bounce - or until zero.