Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[deanroberthunt] 18/11/2017 07:04

D4E or rights, 2.5bn shares @20p even to raise £500m....which is only half the debt.....!!

currently 430m shares in issue, total after D4E = nearly 3bn, @ 20p giving an mcap of £600m...and still having £500m of debt and an order book losing cash.

this situation is worse the lower the price of conversion.

[samdb] 18/11/2017 00:58

pyuek, you are mostly correct except the bit where shareholders have a say in what happens.The board, on behalf of shareholders, signed borrowing agreements that gave the lenders control over the equity if covenants are breached. That is certain to happen.

[hpcg] 18/11/2017 00:58

IMO this is a good case study for how long term big short positions are the most astute money. There are too many long only market participants who don't understand the balance sheet and are blinded by dividend yield and PE ratio. If they weren't than CLLN would have been pressured by share price declines to fix itself as it was going wrong, instead it had years of runway to make itself into an unfixable basket case. I'm not sure I'd want to be a debt holder either. I bet there is no capacity in the current equity base to raise enough money, so D4E ahoy. Congrats to the persistent shorts out there.

[blueball] 17/11/2017 21:35

Rights issue at 10p coming soon.

[rcturner2] 17/11/2017 21:32

So no posts all day from ileeman, racg or excell. All too ashamed to post I suppose.

[fjgooner] 17/11/2017 21:07

Has anyone seen Donald Trump and Bullet Ant in the same room at the same time?

Just asking.

FJ

[pyueck] 17/11/2017 20:52

Can I make one things clear. This will either:

a) go bust

or

b) there will be a debt for equity deal.

If it's b people are wrong to say existing shareholders will be wiped out. They may be heavily diluted but they won't be wiped out, the clue is in the name equity! There will be many new shares issues to bondholders.

The deal needs to be approved by shareholders, they have no incentive of doing something what would close to wipe them out. Remember bondholders are up the do do with thing one too.

I am not saying things are not mega serious but I don't think people are right to think it's all over. Bondholders will want to get something back and therefore I see a fundraising is probable but not certain.

Yes shareholders will be heavily diluted, and yes they may be asked to put in more.

But the reality is shareholders have lost so much already, even if they end up owning 20% of the new well capitalised company they may actually be in a better position.

I am not advising anybody to buy this or am saying this will survive. I just don't think it's all over yet.

The board should get on with it though, time is not on their side. In retrospect, and I said it at the time, when they first issued the profits warning they should have tried to launch at least a small rights issue at that time. But hey retrospect is of no use here. The situation is dire, the shareprice has pretty much wiped out most long term holders. The lights are not quite out yet.

[gersemi] 17/11/2017 20:51

If you buy CLLN stock you effectively have claim over nothing. No assets and no dividends. The shareholder has been eliminated by the creditors claims. Why people can't see that is beyond me. By buying shares in CLLN you are effectively buying the square root of zero

[1he patriot] 17/11/2017 20:50

There's only way to go here.

That's short it 1p.

But again, mcap is low, not a lot of meat left.

Maybe a dead cat at 0.2p to 3p before administration.

[1he patriot] 17/11/2017 20:47

is this guy ok? Can someone call the NHS for him?

45% down at the close.

early something like -70%.


when will it be disaster for this loon? -99.99%?

as currently his -94% is not a disaster yet.



dealy17 Nov '17 - 19:27 - 9701 of 9704 2 0
A real disaster would be new big black holes and cancellation of major contracts. Nothing like that was announced today

[topvest] 17/11/2017 19:48

They have already got a huge £1bn black hole and that's before the pension deficit. It's sad, but its going to be in administration very soon in my opinion. That's capitalism. They are not too big to fail, but there will be collateral damage, that's for sure. There isn't much appetite for the equity in a company that has rubbish management and no CEO.

[dealy] 17/11/2017 19:27

A real disaster would be new big black holes and cancellation of major contracts. Nothing like that was announced today

[kirk 6] 17/11/2017 19:24

Glen you in this? Looking for a trade here reckon Monday will trade back above 25-26p

[dealy] 17/11/2017 19:16

I know you will all shoot me down but in reality very little new info was released today. The task is not really harder than it was when they announced results. The only difference is that the timing of payments will result in a technical covenance breach. They are asking for a 3 months delay in the test. What choice do the bondholders have other than to co-operate? The bondholders will get their money back if the company can execute it's recovery plan and continue to win contracts. A spanner in the works (calling covenance breach) will increase the risk for the bondholders. So I don't believe it's all over here.

[nakedsteve] 17/11/2017 19:05

looks like glenkaz has lost a load more money, whooops....

[killieboy] 17/11/2017 18:23

Oh we do like a bit of schadenfreude!

[turbotrader2] 17/11/2017 17:41

Where is gkpheroes?

[hercy] 17/11/2017 17:39

Reminds me of the days when i held Jarvis, plenty of contracts in hand then the bank pulled the plug on financing.

GLA

[elmfield] 17/11/2017 17:27

Well,
We did warn you.
No excuse for still being in this.

[fenners66] 17/11/2017 17:26

No notifications from short tracker of any moves here yet.

[oakville] 17/11/2017 17:25

You will never see This at 1P it will have gone way before that.

[fenners66] 17/11/2017 17:24

Russell - if you sold today may I ask what you actually got for them or at least if there was a difference between the quote at the time and your sale.
Curious to know if a sale of the volume you had actually moved the price on its own?