Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Card Factory Plc LSE:CARD London Ordinary Share GB00BLY2F708 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -2.46 -7.03% 32.54 77,345 12:58:32
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
32.00 35.98 36.00 31.50 36.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Leisure Goods 436.00 66.60 15.00 2.2 111
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
13:17:25 O 10 34.99 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
30/3/202011:11CARD FACTORY - InvestorJohn1,864
24/5/201409:17SMART to start investing in SMART CARD co.s780
29/11/200509:51Cardpoint with Charts & News1
14/10/200421:33best cashback creditcard?-
05/8/200413:08E-Cards: For Birthadys and other Occasions-

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Card Factory Daily Update: Card Factory Plc is listed in the Leisure Goods sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CARD. The last closing price for Card Factory was 35p.
Card Factory Plc has a 4 week average price of 22p and a 12 week average price of 22p.
The 1 year high share price is 210p while the 1 year low share price is currently 22p.
There are currently 341,549,306 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,653,024 shares. The market capitalisation of Card Factory Plc is £111,140,144.17.
blippyboo: hi lastchance2322, I see what you mean about the sentiment. (apologies for the long message) In my opinion (which doesn't count much) it's a valuation issue and a "muddy" statement issue. Valuation: From statement and annual report it seems like the business will invest more money into it which would mean less cash available for the owners. We could argue that owners will eventually get the benefits of these investments (assuming they're invested wisely). But someone may also argue that it may mean that the last few years after IPO company has spent less than what's required in the business. We obviously don't know for sure as the company is not been public for a long time. The expectation in the past was quite high, at some point in 2015 share price got to £4, that value the whole business about £1.3bn-£1.4bn, how much cash does the business need to produce "each year" to be valued at one-point-something billions? It's a genuine question and of course it also depends on the return investors would be happy with. Maybe investors were/are expecting growth but now from the look of LFL (like-for-like) figures it seems like the existing shops are actually making less than last year. It may be a temporary glitch caused by consumer sentiment or it may be long term decline in demand for greeting cards (but to be fair Card Factory doesn't sell just greeting cards). Regarding the "muddy" statement (I'm referring to "Trading Update dated 9th January 2020"): The sentence "the board now expects FY20 Adjusted Underlying EBITDA (excluding adjustments in relation to IFRS 16) will be in the range £81.0m-£83m" - what does that mean? Is it useful to the owner of the business to understand how things are going and potentially try to value it? If someone is earning £30,000 p.a. you could argue that their EBITDA is £30,000p.a. but does it matter? doesn't this person pay taxes or interests or spend money on anything? It's not like this person can freely spend or save or invest the whole £30k. They'll have to pay for rent/mortgage, food, tax will be deducted from their salary anyway, the boiler would break, the car needs petrol, etc, etc... Similarly when a company tells you the earning before depreciation and amortisation is hard to make sense of this figure. Someone distracted or inexperienced could even read that sentence and think "oh the business is throwing out £81m a year, what a cash cow". But the reality is that Card Factory will pay taxes and interests and also have to spend money into the business (like any business). So talk about the EBIT"DA" in the trading statement is nonsense. From : "People who use EBITDA are either trying to con you or they’re conning themselves." In addition to this, in the statement the previous years figures are in the "Notes to Editors", of course these numbers are there but why they're not next to/near above sentence? "In the financial year ended 31st January 2019, the Group achieved overall revenue of £436.0m (FY18: £422.1m) and adjusted underlying EBITDA of £89.4 (FY18: £94m) at a margin of 20.5% (FY18: 22.3%)" So if someone puts these together you'll get "adjusted" EBITDA of £94m in FY18 then £89.4m in FY19 or -4.9% and board expects this to be £81m-£83m in FY20 so a decline between -7.2% and -9.4%. Of course EBITDA is not that helpful to begin with (again see article above). A part from consumer sentiment which has been weak (should that affect a business selling cheap goods? I don't know but I suppose it would affect any business to a certain extent) and the "significant increased costs in FY20" statement also mentions "[...] there may be a requirement of additional strategic investment in FY21 to support this future growth". So it seems like management may have to invest more money into the business, that means increased CAPEX and hence Depreciation and Amortisation. That means less money available for the owners. We can only hope the "strategic investment" doesn't mean throw good money after bad money. Statement also didn't mention anything about "Getting Personal" which wasn't performing great before. The "market" may have overreacted but at the same time it's hard to tell just from EBIT"DA" (see article above), we'll know more about the real profits when Annual Report is published but at the end of the day we'll only know what the right price was supposed to be only in the future over the long term.
mr_spock: Yes, I like this card buying idea. Smart. I can get my girlfriend a 59p Valentines card (I mean, she is already my girlfriend), and totally splash out on 99p cards for all the potential new girlfriends, AND I get to support the share price and force the share price back up and help recoup my losses! Card Factory here I come! Peace and Love.
fenners66: When arch ramper and sticker of fingers in ears UKN posted that about the FCA I literally cracked up laughing ! Then he repeats it all day and tries to make it "the" topic of conversation Meanwhile the share price which he cannot fathom has continued to plummet. So lets get back to debating the whys and wherefores. Lastc - if the share price is now almost 50% of her buy last July and she is so confident - why did she only buy 12.6% of what she bought last time ? Hardly acting with the same confidence is it ? Add to that her previous investing record is not great - she's down about £109k. bbonsall - if you want to believe that a hit of £5-10m is good news , out of the blue , you are probably in a small minority - share price movement shows that. Of course you have to take debt - not mentioned in the RNS into account , and the calculation that LFL dropped by about 3 % in their busiest 2 months.... Rising costs to come..... Anecdotally profit warnings come in 3's......
stevieb2190: Hi wiseman..looking for some of your wisdom....i honestly believe at some point there is money to be made with CARD..but when...there has been a steady decline for years on the share price so what will it take to reverse significantly and not just a temp blip on opening everyday...xmas results?, my feelings on this is they will disappoint but say im wrong, how good do they have to be to make any meaningful upturn in share price..or, how low do they drop before a bid comes in from somebody who likes and needs the cash it generates...finally, what is their debt made up of..they make their own cards from raw materials with good margins and sell them for waiting 30/60/ or 90 days for payment so who do they owe and why is this increasing..
devonbeachbum: Thanks for the welcome and information Wiseman. The deconstruction of Ross's reasoning was far better than mine. I'm relatively new to the stock market but from what I've seen share prices are fragile things. It only takes a bit of good / bad news to send things soaring / plunging. Sometimes, as in the case of Ross's article, his reasoning is flawed. The Muddy Waters report into NMC crashed the share price 50% in a week. I have no clue (or real interest) in it's legitimacy. It just appears to be the power of positive / negative publicity. The reason I bought Card Factory is that revenue increases every year and the PE is better than ever. With a great dividend policy to fall back on, at some point investors will want a slice.
wiseman1967: He then suggests that the "website, where sales are growing at 16.2%, should be the priority". Online single cards represent 2.3% of cards sold by CF (p4 Annual Report) - so Andy please calculate 16.2% growth on 2.3% of your sales - is this really the answer?His wisdom continues...CF "is reliant on selling ever more ancillary items". That is their business model! (page 1 Annual Report), "Card Factory is the UK's leading specialist retailer of greeting cards, dressings and gifts" - Sorry Andy, perhaps Dean Hoyle should have called it "Cards, Dressings and Gifts Factory" to help you understand? Amazon is indeed larger than CF but I doubt if it sells more of these "ancillary" products than CF in the UK and perhaps not even cheaper.So DevonBeachBum - I don't think the share price underperformance is down to the Motley Fool article...
ukneonboy: if you believe all the negativity posted on this message board and others like MF the assumptions being made range from Card Factory is in trouble, Card Factory is going into Administration, Card Factory is going bust !!! All total nonsense - and posted by "shorters" to try to destabilise the Card Factory share price. Yes an increase in the National Ninimum Wage will (in the short term) hurt Card Factory but it will also hurt Asda, Tesco, Sainsburys and other retail outlets. J D Wetherspoons have already stated that pay rises will signal increased pub prices But this is only one side of the equation - businesses will either raise prices or they will offer employees shorter working hours to offset. The Xmas trading statement is due to be released shortly and I'm not expecting any nasty surprises. I personally visited 6 Card Factory shops in various locations in West Yorks, during the run-up to Xmas and EVERY SHOP WAS VERY BUSY !!! People were spending not just looking. So moving back to fundamentals, Card Factory is basically a solid and profitable business. The recent fall in the share price to 142p is a buying opportunity. The P/E ratio is historically very low and the prospective dividend yield is mouthwatering for income seekers. At this price, Card Factory shares are worth a punt.
wiseman1967: Thanks Multibagger. To be clear I did not run the business, I acquired it, having done significant due diligence, and a first class management team ran it. I agree with you that people can make money buying or shorting. At the moment shorting will have worked well as the share price is under pressure with the largest shareholder reducing their stake. Two warnings though for any shorter - none of us know what the target holding is for Invesco and so when they may stop selling and secondly if the trading statement is very good then the share price could snap back suddenly. Having said that, at a share price of 148p, using last year's ebitda of £94million and assuming they have collected c£40m of cash profit over Q4, the current EV/ebitda is only 6.75x - so I will be buying more.
wiseman1967: StevieB - I believe the reason for the share price slump is that Mark Barnett, a big believer in CF, who bought about 28% of the company in 2014-15 for Invesco has had to split his job with another fund manager. Following this, Invesco sold down their holding to 21.9% by 16 Dec (and possibly lower now). This has forced down the share price, and probably caused the demotion of company from the FTSE 250. Once it was out, certain tracker funds would also have to sell shares - forcing down the price further. If trading over Xmas has been good then trackers will have to buy in again once CF's market cap crosses the FTSE 250 threshold again. I suspect the share price may be bumpy over the next few days/weeks but believe that a combination of stronger GBP and new sales from Aldi & Australia will boost trading in the next few months.
ukneonboy: cflather too many people on here are trying to talk the CF share price down. I accept its differing opinions that make a market place function but come on, we're fast approaching Xmas, Card Factory is approaching it's busiest trading and most PROFITABLE period of the year, plus major rival Clinton Cards is struggling. I know the original CF founders (Dean & Janet Hoyle) personally and even they think the current share price undervalues the business significantly. If you've "short sold" you are gonna get burned !!!!
Card Factory share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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