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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finders Res. | LSE:FND | London | Ordinary Share | AU000000FND9 | ORD NPV |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 25.25 | 0.00 | 00:00:00 |
| Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - |
| Last Trade Time | Trade Type | Trade Size | Trade Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | O | 0 | 25.25 | GBX |
Finders Resources (FND) Share Charts1 Year Finders Resources Chart |
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1 Month Finders Resources Chart |
Intraday Finders Resources Chart |
| Date | Time | Title | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2016 | 23:50 | Finders Resources - Growing Copper Production | 51 |
| 12/3/2011 | 12:43 | Finders Resources - 2009 | 876 |
| 01/6/2009 | 17:01 | Finders Resources Ltd | 36 |
| 01/6/2009 | 17:01 | Finders Resources Ltd (FND) 2009 and beyond! | 3 |
| Trade Time | Trade Price | Trade Size | Trade Value | Trade Type |
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| Top Posts |
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Posted at 24/11/2016 23:50 by davegk Post from Hot Copper 17-11-16hxxp://hotcopper.com In regards to FND they are (supposedly) at the end of a major capex spend and now stand on the brink of producing 28,000 tons of copper per annum. Depending on whether you listen to Euroz or Argonaut, both of whom have assessed the project, all in costs should be $1.30 or $1.50 per pound. So at current Cu prices lets make it easy and say FND can make a margin of 1 buck per pound after all costs. There are 2200 pounds in a ton 28,000 x 2,200 = 61.6 million pounds per year and at 1 buck a pound that means the project will make 61.6 mill bucks per annum at current copper prices. However FND only owns 72% of the project BUT these numbers are in USD. Again let's make it easy and say that 1 USD = .75 AUD. Therefore FND's share in AUD will be: 72/75 x 61.6 mill = approx $59.1 mill AUD At the moment FND's market cap, even after the dilution of the recent cap raise is approx $120 mill. So if FND can achieve what they say they can then annual earnings, at current Cu prices, will be equal to half the value of the company at this time. By anyone's calculation that is not overvalued and in fact is way undervalued.... however, for the moment, I see a few factors holding it back a bit. 1. They have not yet achieved steady state name plate. Brokers envisaged this would have been achieved earlier in the year and we still aren't there yet. 2. Yes the CR will be a bit of a weight. No matter how good the project is there will always be some "sophisticated investors" (ha freaking ha) that will partake of the CR and flip the shares for 25% profit asap. 3. There is about 100 mill of capex debt to be repaid that should be able to be cleared in under 2 years at current Cu prices assuming predicted operating costs and levels are achieved. 4. The timing of the CR makes me nervous as it all seemed too bizarre for my liking. Why would you dilute at all let alone at these low levels if you are on the cusp of raking in 60 mill pa?? Surely even with the debt that needs repaying a bit of cash could be held back to use in increasing the projects value. My experience is that when something doesn't make sense based on what we know it usually means there is something that we don't yet know. I hope I am wrong on that point but at this stage the seemingly illogical CR must be put down as a risk factor. 5. They do need to increase the mine life beyond the current predicted 7 years. Prospects for this are promising on satellite drill targets but the sooner they get a drill in the ground and get some good hits the better. So in summary there is risk but if you want multibagging upside you usually need to have your eyes open to the risks. That said if they can even just get the plant running at steady state nameplate and if Cu can maintain the current price then this should at least double easy peasy. And as debt decreases and if they can increase the resource size it should multibag.....all in my opinion. |
Posted at 23/5/2012 18:53 by tarnow Hi engelo. The problem with FND is that it is based in Indonesia, and they move at glacial pace. So here we are, near the end of may still waiting for the gazetting. Although it says in report its a case of when, not if and I have no reason to doubt them. Since your post we have had the 17th may updated feasibility study and it makes for great reading. The capital costs have gone up a small amount, but everything else was very positive. It is very likely we have 1 extra years production from improved recovery rates. Kali deposit is bigger than previously reported. Then we have the Meron deposit which they plan to drill 5000m. This has potential to be similar to lerokis, and another 1 year plus production. Not to mention possible gold! 100,000 ounces mentioned in previous documents. We have agreement to sell all the copper produced. Everything is in place. We are low cost $1.07lb so we can take a hit on the copper price, although not ideal granted. We have many broker notes ranging from 60c to 80c, which is double share price I have been invested since may 2009, 3 years. And although had a nice profit at 45c, which was for a long time, have now made zilch!!! however i am in no way tempted to leave. the potential is too good, and the cash flows will be to high not to hit 60c plus. My target has been and remains 50p. All the best |
Posted at 09/4/2012 14:49 by tarnow Hi Engelo. Yes, I was really pleased when I saw the RNS for the above. I've always liked the ojolali project., and if they can speed things up with it, drill more etc. Then has to be good. You could in a couple of years have a company producing copper, gold and silver. The upside to FND is still HUge IMO. As the company is undervalued from Wetar copper alone. Then you have potential gold from Mekon cap and lerokis on the same island. And gold/silver from Ojolai project. This year and next will be great for FND as they become cashflow positive. Allowing further drilling and resource upgrades |
Posted at 05/10/2011 19:03 by tarnow Hi Chip, thanks for your views on our common investments. The placing has to be done when sentiment has changed and when/if copper recovers. Then the dilution is less. They shouldn't have to rush it as they can build phase 1, the expanded demo plant from the banks money. The selling of ojolali I wouldn't like. They have a resource of 200,000 ounces and they could easily start up a small operation producing 20,000 ounces per annum. Generating 32 million dollars revenue. Also Tambang has massive silver resources potentially. 40 million inferred ounces, but difficult metallurgy from tests. I would hope they crack on with it. HMB is all about the u/g mine. If that is up and running on schedule, then HMB will re-rate in a big way. VGM you have to believe that eventually the development will be finished and the promised 100,000 ounces with reduced costs can be achieved. Its all about the grades. Vgm is high grade mine and when developed it should produce 25,000 ounces a qtr. Done it for 1 qtr already. The same for HMB 4g/t underground only 1g open pit. The difference in cash costs will be huge. A profit even LOL. All the best Chip. With luck we will be sitting pretty end of 2012. Next year is big for HMB, and VGM. No more excuses. FND is for 2013. |
Posted at 05/10/2011 14:58 by chipperfrd tarnow,In their different ways, all three stocks are requiring patience! FND will take until 2013 to get up to full production. In the meantime there is likely to be a placing to secure the balance of the CAPEX, having secured the debt proportion from a bank syndicate. The high-grade nature of the Wetar deposits is pretty exceptional these days and the LME grade Cu output from the SX/EW should attract a premium because of their geographical positioning. The expanded demo plant should be in production in c. 12 months providing some useful early cash-flow. There must also be a likelihood of Ojolali being sold off as it does not seem to fit well with their Wetar set-up. But much will depend upon the price of copper! With VGM I am not expecting much for the Sep or Dec quarters but will hope to add to my holding in the Mar quarter as they reach the end of the mine re-development phase. With HMB, in spite of everything, I remain positive regarding the upside potential to come. Over the shorter term they may be a bit squeezed for working capital so they do need to bring the U/G on-line, on time. A few quarters of cash-flows from the higher-grade production could transform the outlook and the recent additions of the two new project areas would then be a clear path to growth. But as ever with mining companies, there are always a few 'ifs & buts' so I am reserving full judgement until I see clear delivery by the new CEO. Good luck with your investing. Chip |
Posted at 05/10/2011 09:26 by tarnow Thanks Chip. I am just interested in how you see it now. I have two other shares in common with you HMB and VGM. They are proving very disappointing, and I am sitting on substantial losses on both. But I still feel confident that if, (and it is a big if) they get their act together next year then the potential of both companies is huge. I still see this gold bull market going much higher in the next 3-5yrs. And eventually the juniors will re-rate. FND I don't worry about either, as I like the company and feel that as their costs are very low, even in a crashed copper market they can make money. Combining this with the potential gold/silver resource increases as they drill, which would help it diversify. |
Posted at 18/9/2011 15:58 by tarnow Hi Chip. We have had a lot of broker notes recently for FND. With new firms covering the stock. The broker targets for 1 year vary from 60c to 80c depending on share dilution for fund raising. I am interested in your target now as your previous forecasts in post 1 are over a year old. Anyone else please feel free to give their 1 year target price and reasons. |
Posted at 29/12/2010 18:52 by tarnow Hectorp, this share hasn't re-rated for one reason, and that is permits. Now if we get them, and for my reasons outlined in my last post we should by Jan/Feb next year. Then it is game on. The only danger then is falling copper price(highly unlikely), or massive dilution/hedging. For me here is the scenario. Take Blackswann's report of 400 million shares, when dilution has finished. Now hopefully hedging will be minimum, or at 9,000 a tonne plus (Copper price forecast upto 12,000 tonne 2012). Runrate of 23,000 tonnes starting by Q3 2012. Gives 200 million dollars plus earnings. P/E of 4 gives company value of 800 million or $2 a share. 5x current price. Unrealistic? I think not. Even if these conditions don't all materialise, the share price has plenty of room to grow. Forget to mention a potential gold/silver mine of 1 million plus ounces in a gold/silver bull market. Hectorp, this and another of our shares (HMB) are potentially fantastic next year. I have learnt my lesson this year by pain. I have lost alot of potential profit by lacking patience and selling too early only to see my hopes/expectations for a share come true. With HMB and FND I hope not to make the same mistake. Next month could tell us alot about both companies. Best scenario FND gets pemit, and HMB releases good production figures. Look on the bright side :-) All the best |
Posted at 11/11/2010 11:22 by tarnow Thanks JF. I think we will always be about 2p below the share price on the ASX, as the secondary market. As long as there is a 1p spread, (now 1/2p) and decent volume to buy and sell. I can live with that. Although not happy obviously. As you know the shareholding on this share is very tight. With over 50% held by the major shareholders as listed in the latest RNS. That means that if people what to buy into FND, the volume is very limited and this share will fly. Because can't I see any large sellers out there. Significant shareholders all increased stake in latest placing. Even disgruntled shareholders Tennant will wait for $1.00 Aus before selling out.The fundamentals of copper are best of all the base metals. And at 12,000 a tonne if FND is in full production. We will get our rewards. Patience :-). If FND gets Ojolali into swing as well with anticipated higher gold/silver prices. Then my valuations will easily exceeded. But always be conservative and hope to be surprised on the upside. Looking good here :-) |
Posted at 08/11/2010 14:03 by tarnow Hi Coffelito. Using Chips calculations, I came up with my own valuation. Based on just wetar and a PER of 4 (Average for metals on ASX: source Mining Valuation Handbook) gives a price with current share issue of 87p. Using price to cashflow of 3 (source: same book) gives price of 83p. We have 7 million shares left to dilute with options and convertible loan. Insignificant amount. However any more dilution for fund raising is any ones guess. But I think a lot of companies like equity placings as they see them as easy money, and keeps the large shareholders onside. However FND could fund stage 2 from loans. The latest Blackswann broker report gave 400 million fully diluted. I hope not :-(. Based on current copper price came up with NPV of $312 million or 68p a share. Which still makes FND undervalued and a good buy. I valued ojolali at about 10p share or 30 million. As this seems comparable with other explorers of 1 million ounce resource which I'm confident will get to. Always had in mind a Market Cap of around 300 to 400 million for FND when I first came across them. With current share issue still comes out around 100p to 145p (depending on final total of shares in issue). Which no one can predict. That is the thing Coffeelito. It's interesting to try to come up with valuations, but they are after all just guesses. The main thing is I still see FND as undervalued and still expect multiples (minimum 3)of this share price by 2013. Upside see as copper price higher than now. Ojolali- great potential, and not priced in. Especially if they can get demo plant into production quickly, although with Indonesia nothing mining happens quick. Downside is share dilution. More permit delays. Fall in copper price. It pays to be conservative on estimations and future and be surprised to the upside. Even being conservative FND is still a buy in my book. All the best Tarnow |
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