Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[queeny2] 20/6/2018 12:52

whoa! I've been buying every penny lower, covering the short, now 60% covered, but didn't have orders that low annoyingly.

checking up on Typo's useful post above I see that Carclo isn't in the current Small Cap Index, but can't see the news item dropping it out, I assume in the June review.

[yump] 20/6/2018 12:32

Why not look for a rising pole then ?
;-)
(that's not a recognised term though - but here's one. Seeing as there is all sorts of made up stuff on ADVFN:
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=L%5EVEL&;p=6&t=47

[nick rubens] 20/6/2018 12:16

Can someone let me know when the bottom has been reached, in time for a rally to follow? I'm terrible at catching falling knives as they say.

[pugugly] 20/6/2018 12:01

Trading at 74p - Certinly chartwise looks like a year low -
Number of trades looks high compared to normal - Capitulation? or the start of a new slide?
Index up strongly but european automotives down yesterday - HuMMMMMMMMM?

[nick rubens] 20/6/2018 11:40

I think it's going to drop alot more before bargain hunters feel the risk/reward is worth it and convince those on the side the bottom has been reached and start the upswing again (assuming no further trading woes that is).

[queeny2] 15/6/2018 21:06

Typo thank you, will look into thatIllis we agree I think. The 'significant and material' statement was very mature, it's just that the results afterwards were better than it suggested that's confusing me.

[queeny2] 15/6/2018 21:06

Typo thank you, will look into thatIllis we agree I think. The 'significant and material' statement was very mature, it's just that the results afterwards were better than it suggested that's confusing me.

[illiswilgig] 15/6/2018 20:50

Queeny very thoughtful post thank you.

Profit warnings should come in threes. But thats got more to do with underperforming management than it has underperforming companies.

The first warning is caused by greedy and complacent management caught unawares. The second warning is caused when their attempts to fix their own mess misfire. The third warning is the new team doing the kitchen sink.

In this case after the first warning they sacked the fd and the old chairman walked the plank so they may have gone straight from warning one to warning three (with two wrapped up in it)?

Been sitting on my hands for quite a while and now starting to get interested. Much better team, the companies are still good - the debt and pension(cash drain) I worry about.

cheers

Illis

[queeny2] 15/6/2018 17:03

Here's my conundrum encapsulated.1 i found the results very truthful. Hard to credit that the chairman designate (and fd designate) would have knowingly left booby traps for them to deal with this year. So the results *should* be the whole story.In which case you have a very cheap share, rivaldo is correct, held back by multiple issues including its size, its range of activities by industry and geography given its size, its lack of dividend, its pension fund, its historic p&l, and a legacy of lunacy under previous CEO (I'm not being wise after, I said it at the time).But cheap. And cheap enough to be interested given that this CEO has been ok, he's sacked the fd, and the incoming chairman seems excellent.2 profit warnings come in threes! There should be another! But I expected it at year end and I was wrong.So I don't know what to do exactly. I'm covering the short I had on for the results, which hasn't worked, and thinking again.

[typo56] 15/6/2018 16:59

FTSE effect. Demoted from Small Cap index. Funds adjusting.

[queeny2] 15/6/2018 16:56

This is strange. Bloomberg says volume over 3 million shares.

[nick rubens] 15/6/2018 15:51

Looks like it may be going sub 80p before any bargain hunters are confident to get in.

As long as forecasts are not revised down with a warning later this year, then it has recovery potential, though market not convinced of that yet.

Might need directors to buy first.

[gleach23] 11/6/2018 11:49

Posted in the header of the thread :)

[meijiman] 11/6/2018 11:17

Where is the thread header post?

[rivaldo] 11/6/2018 10:42

For the record, these are the latest forecasts:

To March 2019/To March 2020
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p)
Edison 31-05-18 None 11.03 11.20 11.03 12.10 12.5
Peel Hunt 29-05-18 BUY 11.03 10.92 Unknown
N+1 Singer 05-06-18 HOLD 11.00 11.40 11.03 12.00 12.4

I've updated the thread header post.

At 86.5p that's a current year P/E of 7.7 falling to 6.9 for next year.

[yump] 07/6/2018 11:28

Why not look forwards on some other stocks where looking backwards doesn't show history repeating itself ?

[rivaldo] 07/6/2018 10:34

The results presentation is very comprehensive and worth a look. Particularly for those with a view which looks forward rather than backwards:



"Outlook

 We expect the actions that we have taken through our COMP initiative to positively impact the current year and subsequent years

 The remodelling of the CTP footprint is now largely complete and this will allow the Division to focus on high quality business development and operational improvements

 Wipac is moving closer to a realisation of its strategy of providing lighting solutions for the mid volume premium automotive segment; this will have a major impact on the Group’s financial performance through 2019 and beyond as all three programs enter production

 Despite a poor financial performance in the year versus our expectations, we are well placed to deliver consistent improvements in our profitability and cash generation over the coming years"

[pugugly] 06/6/2018 12:12

yump - Very fair comment - The road to money heaven as many of us know to our cost is paved with "probable/possible" recovery stocks. Jury still out here (imo) but when jury returns to give verdict may well be too late - either way - Have fun.

[yump] 06/6/2018 11:49

Some of us long termers - very long termers, are out because there are plenty of other growth stocks, forecast to grow at more than 10%, who haven't had the repeat disappointments that CAR have.

Surely that's the point. Maybe its a recovery stock, but I for one look for one chance to recover and they've had at least 2 already.

[andrewbaker] 06/6/2018 11:39

Carclo's results that show greater trading but lower profit, can be taken both ways: for better or for worse. But it's not as bad, even if it's bad at all, which is debatable, as the drop in share price in January: so, on balance I feel that a rise is definitely due and likely. I'm holding and will continue so to do.

[rivaldo] 06/6/2018 11:09

RNS - good to see Aberforth Partners continuing to buy - they now hold over 12%, with 8.93m shares.

They've bought another 450,000 shares since their last disclosure:

[pugugly] 06/6/2018 10:03

Businesses warned not to use British-made parts in export products ahead of Brexit



THE EU has “lit a bomb” underneath the car manufacturing industry as European governments are being advised not to use UK parts in vehicles for export ahead of Brexit.


“After Brexit, parts made in the UK no longer count towards this minimum production in the European Union.” This refers to “rules of origin” and “local content” under international trade rules. To qualify for EU free trade deals, normally at least 55 per cent of a product’s parts must come from an EU country.

Read more at:

Yellow or red flag for CAR ?

[petewy] 05/6/2018 17:05

I have Pugugly on filter.

[pugugly] 05/6/2018 15:25

Pell Hunt House Broker - so has to (usually say nice things) Edison - paid for by The Company - N+1 Singer - Use your own jusgement - (all imo and no intention to have a go at Riv.. I tells it how I see it.