Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[garth] 16/1/2018 09:46

I am not holding - and debt concerns following the lack of traction with Printable was one reason, having got badly burned on Dyson (DYS). I would like to invest here again having originally invested in the 20p days. I just keep an eye on them, waiting for a sound opportunity.

Would appreciate some thoughts on AEG from some long termers on here. I have a solid holding and they feel like they are just waiting to burst up. But coated HDD surfaces, printable electronics etc... I could just as easily be wrong. Anyone else looked at them?

Mkt Cap has multiplied on fundraising over the last couple of years - always makes the heart heavy. But if their coal drop-in replacement is adopted, could be absolutely massive... Been here before - genuinely interested in some views from people on here who are coming up to a couple of decades on these BBs.

G.

[meijiman] 16/1/2018 09:29

Mismanagement and a refusal to face facts and living on blind hope is a fatal combination. The full story needs to be seen in the context of the entirety of the releases put out by the company.

[yump] 16/1/2018 09:06

Took a loss on these yesterday - can't be doing with it any more and the best upside is I reckon 100p. There are others now where I think 25% is more likely in a much shorter timeframe.

Very disappointing. I kept some after all the hype and bought a few more when the forecasts seemed to be improving for the future, thinking I'd got the bottom.

It does make you want to march into boardrooms and create merry hell, when they seem incapable of making a genuine assessment of their own business in RNS's.

All hindsight I know, but I wonder what would have happened to the printable side if they had had a better team in place... I wonder if they really tried to sell to anyone other than Atmel and then rested on their laurels when they got that agreement.

It just brings it home that success is also down to having a whole group of very competent people at the helm and that doesn't happen that often and its very, very difficult to judge. Meeting them at events won't do it - gut feel doesn't work, especially when you've had a nice friendly enthusiastic chat.

[queeny2] 16/1/2018 00:30

Bits and bobs. I should be better at the long side, i'd be better off.

[yump] 16/1/2018 00:09

Just out of curiosity are you invested in anything as an investment ?

[queeny2] 15/1/2018 23:26

Illis, any counter view to mine?

[queeny2] 15/1/2018 23:25

The only way that statement could be worse is if the CEO had gone as well as the FD.Profit warnings come in threes. They're on two. Another to come under that rule. Whammy - profit warningDouble whammy - SIGNIFICANTLY below, and next year for sure tooTreble whammy - BOTH businessesQuad whammy - strategic review of ctp marginsQuin whammy - FD goes (banks/pension trustee?)Quad is interesting ... They don't really make money in CTP without new tooling contracts, so pricing of ongoing business is all wrong. In addition they haven't solved their operational issues yet .... the reason is that they are fairly structural imho, it's all part of the same story.I missed today, in wrong time zone, but it's a flat or short, use any opportunity to exit imho. I will be looking for openings to short from here.

[kazoom] 15/1/2018 17:27

I think we've all faced that dilema of whether to sell or average down Yump.

I've changed stance recently and rather than being fussed at getting in for "deep value" before the market has cottoned on but rather after proof and in the early stages of the marketing recognising the value - probably then missing the first few percent of any gains but having a greater strike rate. That's the theory anyway, early days for the proof of the pudding.

So, I sold back in November not because I expected today's miss (certainly not as big) , but because I thought they'd got a lot to do just to meet "expectations" and they really needed a decent "beat" to get re-rated.

You (partially correctly) took issue with my selling CAR to buy IQE (at virtually the 2017 high).

As of Friday I was -24% on that "pairs" trade. As of today +9%.

Of course had I sold CAR and gone in to cash I'd be +43%.

On reflection IQE probably didn't meet my newly developing criteria at the time, nor even now, because although I thought their December statement was excellent, the market didn't agree (yet). No poibt being right, until/unless the market agrees with you!

Hey ho - Carclo will remain on my watchlist now, but I can't see that I'll be a likely buyer anytime this year.

[beeezzz] 15/1/2018 16:54

May get reaction tomorrow when US markets are open.

I can see a fundraising coming soon and maybe the best for long term stability.

[rogerrail] 15/1/2018 16:45

"mutterings about margin improvement to support Tech" - I should very much hope so , with an operating margin of just 7.6% there is a lot of room for improvement , no wonder the FD got the boot.

Pension shortfall is overblown because
-gilt yields are increasing
-far from people living longer, mortality rates in the UK are now increasing.
- correction of the shortfall is spread over decades.

[beeezzz] 15/1/2018 16:15

twist....I agree the pension shortfall is hanging over the company and we see what happened to Carillion major pension problems....no way of plugging it, which is why the plug was pulled.

US closed today...wonder if more selling tomorrow...

[yump] 15/1/2018 16:10

I think if they'd just been subject to project delays, fair enough, but there's too much other stuff, including mutterings about margin improvement to support Tech. Plastics. Might as well keep and hope for something approaching 100p to sell at some point; beyond that is anybody's guess.

[twistednik] 15/1/2018 15:14

£30m debt and rising, pension deficit and poor cash generation don't make it an obvious top up opportunity after today's fall IMHO. The strength of the financial function, oversight and budget forecasting is also a concern...

There is a risk that another warning may lead to a breach of banking covenants and then you're in a whole new world of pain (see Carillion!?).

When you can invest in any other share, I don't see the risk / reward in CAR being favourable at the moment.

[pugugly] 15/1/2018 14:27

Eastbourne1982 bottom fished at 8:20am but still well under water on total holding.

[meijiman] 15/1/2018 14:22

I note that one of the non-execs used to be ceo at Avon. I've dabbled in that one several times. I'm sure he could make a contribution here in an executive capacity if he so desired.

[beeezzz] 15/1/2018 13:43

Slightly disappointed, are management up to the job, seems to be full of bad decisions.

DIA came out with profits warning just before Xmas, also a very illiquid stock and has almost recovered from that warning. However, they do say profits warnings come in threes....

[yump] 15/1/2018 12:44

I have a new strategy for the future - not to buy anything beginning with 'C'. Seems just as sound as trying to pick safe businesses.

[eastbourne1982] 15/1/2018 12:41

PUGUGLY,

Do you ever actually buy any shares ??

You generally seem to be on BB's of shares that have just tanked or are in big problems.

What are you looking to buy ? ?

I'd be interested.

[yump] 15/1/2018 12:36

pugugly

Well cynicism gets you some stick, but it never actually ever loses money in the way that trust can do.

Although some folk would say you lose out on a gain by being cynical, but that's not the same as actually losing money.

I used to sell on a sign of any trouble at all - even the words 'challenging market', until I made some very good profits when I didn't sell. Now a few have gone the other way ! I suppose the best strategy is to average down on everything that looks like a temporary blip, or nothing, as you can't guess which ones will recover and which won't.

[rivaldo] 15/1/2018 12:35

Peel Hunt now go for 9p EPS to this March, with 10.9p EPS to March'19.

Good to see all the analysts coming in around the same estimates:



"The anticipated stronger H2 performance has not materialised so the FY result is now expected to be significantly lower than previously planned. As a consequence of delayed projects and lower customer orders, the Board has also reduced its profit expectations for FY2019. However, the Group’s financing remains healthy and it continues to operate well within its banking covenants. We have cut our FY18 and FY19 PBT forecasts by 30%. The shares have been hit hard on this morning’s news, despite the significant underperformance over the last six months. At this level, we see recovery value if Management can deliver on the revised forecasts.

We have cut our Mar’18 PBT by 30% to £9.0m (9.0p). Most of the damage is at
Technical Plastics, which accounts for £2.8m of the £4.0m EBITA miss this year, but the Wipac & Aerospace EBITA forecasts have also been cut. The size of the downgrade reflects the large contribution from tooling profits and the degree of fixed costs, so the delayed contract awarding has a disproportionate impact on profits. We have also cut our Mar’19 PBT by 30% from £15.4m to £11.0m (10.9p). In theory, the contract slippage from H2 this year, into next and the ramp up in medium-volume Wipac programmes towards the end of next year should underpin the FY2019 profit forecast. However, we are choosing to adopt a far more conservative approach."

[9degrees] 15/1/2018 12:26

after so much promise. promise . promise .for years this will really struggle to regain any credibility

[elsa7878] 15/1/2018 11:43

Market cap now £58 million. Debt expected to be £33 million. Pension deficit £25 million. Hard to value as consistently over-promise and under-deliver.

[pugugly] 15/1/2018 11:41

yump- Your 650 so very very true suffered too often from that during commercial life
Hence why I am a cynic !!

- but managent very much at fault (imo) for not drilling down a asking the difficult questions and being fobbed off.

[yump] 15/1/2018 11:16

66p probably a bargain.