Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[gleach23] 05/1/2018 14:25

Seems like this level is continuing to attract a modest level of buying, including a nice 118k earlier.

[techno20] 02/1/2018 14:53

....try again....dip my toe in!

[techno20] 02/1/2018 14:36

Been watching these for an age and decided to dip my tie in this morning. IF the 2nd half weighting is delivered these will look way too cheap. GLA.

[gleach23] 02/1/2018 14:10

Having sat things out since the AGM statement last Sept and the ominous "2nd half weighted" outlook for the year, a reread of Nov's half year report has tempted me back in today.

Plenty of optimism in the report so lots riding on the next statement but hopefully we'll get one by very early Feb in line with previous years - no guarantee that we will but if things have panned out as hoped then it's very likely imo.

Here's hoping today's modest buying interest bodes well for a better share price performance in 2018.

[meijiman] 22/12/2017 15:56

Agree that its not managements job to manage the share price -they manage the business. But the two go in tandem -if the market view was that this company had brilliant prospects the share price would not be 120p on 10x earnings -whatever.
Anyway 2018 can hardly be worse than 2017-will that better H2 be delivered?
Carclo was starting to remind me of Low and Bonar-hopefully it can do better.

[yump] 22/12/2017 15:34

Perhaps they're more interested in running a business than following a share price chart. I hope so, because it is only by moving it into growth that the share price will go up permanently.

So the bet as of now, rather than the past, is on whether their businesses can grow steadily and the jury is out.

Pretty simple. A level share price is not a disaster. See any random selection of AIM stocks.

To have a go at something as large as they did and fail, while still having a solid business at the end of it is unusual.

Usually with the tech. hype stocks, there's nothing much left at all in terms of a business. But then CAR did not start out as a hyped tech. stock.

[meijiman] 22/12/2017 08:46

What an utter disaster this company is. I have been looking at the five year chart. It touched 500p but has gone nowhere for the past 3 years. The share price is now lower than at the start of the year.The share price reflects perceptions and a view of the future.Time for some change here...radical change.

[yump] 19/12/2017 16:11

I think that was their one big thing opportunity - not many come around, so they're back to the original business.

Perhaps the CEO thought the share price had got overblown - when sp's get way ahead of themselves, nobody likes to say so while the share price is up.

[meijiman] 19/12/2017 15:45

Fair point but the share sale by the then ceo near the top left a very sour taste.
My general point is that since that debacle the company has not exactly been shooting the lights out.

[yump] 19/12/2017 15:02

They tried to develop something that might have been a proper game-changer for the company and it didn't work out.

I bet there are no finger-pointers here with their own businesses, because we all know what happens if you try nothing don't we ?

[meijiman] 19/12/2017 12:24

I'm sure management will find a way to screw up again..........to think this share price was once near 500p.

[rivaldo] 19/12/2017 11:41

The House of Representatives is expected to clear the US tax cuts Act this afternoon after some Republicans withdrew their opposition.

This is good news for CAR given their profitable operations - and higher tax rates incurred - in the USA.

[rivaldo] 12/12/2017 14:34

Good to see bargain hunting today. And this is definitely a bargain imho.

[kazoom] 12/12/2017 10:41

Looking at the last few years it seems to me that there is a pretty clear pattern here :

People buy in on the back of good results / Trading Statement in expectation of the great leap forwards.
And then either getting bored or reacting to a subsequent poor update indicating that the jam delivery has been delayed.

They've actually shown reasonable growth over the last few years, but against the expectations, I think "the market" sees them as serial disappointers.

So IMHO unlikely to be any uplift until the TU at the end of January - a decent update should see the price recover and this will then either be a repeat of the above or maybe this time it will be the real deal!

[yump] 12/12/2017 07:14

Its been at 120 and 180 previously, with the pension and debts reducing, so imo its the delayed revenue that's caused this drop. Either that or there are some big traders moving in and out - the movements are generally quite extreme - 120 to 180 and back is like a small gambling tech.

[pugugly] 12/12/2017 06:37

Do not need to subscribe to RT - All Edison Research is free - but usual cautions apply (imo) as to the independence of company paid for research
Link here to nate above refered to


Declaration - A previous holder of CAR and watching/re-rsearching as to what level if at all potentially re-buying - Debt is I agree a significant worry - also pension liability
"

Pension deficit reduced further

During H118 the deficit, as calculated under IAS 19, reduced from £27.0m at end March 2017 to £24.8m (net of deferred tax) as a result of improved corporate bond yields. This position is a substantial improvement compared with the deficit of £42.6m reported at end H117 (September 2016), when the discount rate had dropped to a low of 2.1% following the EU referendum vote. At that point, the scale of the deficit had eliminated the available distributable reserves thus making dividend distribution legally impossible, so only the interim dividend was paid for FY16 and no further payments made after that. In June 2017,"


OK reducing but still very (imo) significant millstone.

[rhomboid] 12/12/2017 06:14

I don’t think the debt is an issue here as they’ve always said all capex is related to signed off programmes with volume commitments from customers, Edison note says;

‘Net debt increased by £3.6m during H118 to £29.6m. Working capital rose by £4.4m, primarily because of increased subcontract tooling activity. Capital expenditure (including investment in intangibles) was higher than the previous year (£5.8m in H118 vs £3.7m in H117), most of which related to additional capacity in the UK and Indian CTP facilities and production equipment for Wipac.
The continued investment in capex (which we estimate at £13.0m in FY18 and £9.5m in FY19) is expected to drive increased profits, supporting a decrease in net debt to £21.6m at end FY19. Before that point, however, the £4.5m increase in working capital during FY18 associated with developing the tooling for mid-volume programmes ahead of manufacture, together with relatively high levels of capex, is expected to result in a £3.0m increase in debt during FY18 to £29.0m at the year end’

the full note is on Research Tree which is well worth subscribing to imo

[eastbourne1982] 11/12/2017 23:09

Any views on the debt pile here, quite high relative to the market cap.

[rivaldo] 11/12/2017 13:53

Cheers rhomboid. A buying opportunity here imho.

CAR achieved 4.5p EPS even in a much below-par H1. Assuming that H2 is indeed stronger as anticipated by the directors, and that CAR does indeed "trade in line with its expectations for the full year", then the consensus 12.66p EPS puts CAR on a current year P/E of 9.9, falling to just 8.1 for the year starting in just 4 months' time.

This for a company with highly secure and growing global income streams in its two core divisions.

Even if CAR "only" matches H1, then the historic P/E would be just 13.6, likely falling to say 10 or 11.

It's really a matter of whether investors want to buy in now, prior to the next trading statement, or wait to see if CAR delivers on its bullishness for H2 in that statement.

[rhomboid] 11/12/2017 13:11

Tbh it was me that crashed the price today, sorry, I sold a chunk on a worked order basis , I still retain some but I’d another home in mind for the money that offered both greater liquidity and a higher yield along with some other attractions 🙂 I think this remains markedly undervalued

[yump] 11/12/2017 12:33

Hmm. How much did I put into the market when the Brexit vote was announced..? Not much. As per usual over-reactions, a big investment then would have paid off, as would all through the recession and 2003 etc. etc.

Perhaps the only strategy is to just buy in proportion to the apparent irrationality. Clearly investors are guessing at a negative outcome now.

140p a few. 120p: twice the amount... ?

[pugugly] 11/12/2017 12:26

Still falling - 120p offered now hit - Pharma delays ? or BREXIT risks ?

[meijiman] 08/12/2017 18:35

Agree with kazoom-it needs positive news...there are two many companies which promise a better second half and fail to deliver.

[queeny2] 08/12/2017 18:28

I think being 10p higher than they were at the last announcement would be more questionable than being 10p lower, as they are. It was very meh. See reactions at the time from 14/11 results and presentations from me and illiswig.

[kazoom] 08/12/2017 18:03

I think probably you're right yump (if anything though I think UK focused stocks are getting it worse).

The question would have to be though, which of those reactions is the more rational?

The bull market view that believes management statements that a miss in H1 will be made up in H2.
Or the more bearish view that thinks a miss in H1 threatens the full year number.

I suspect after the H1 some people who held on "waiting for the bounce" have either got bored or decided it is not coming.

They needs to be some proven good news for any re-rating to start imho.