Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[queeny2] 19/7/2018 11:12

Imho only from the lack of developments so far and the amusingly minimal agm update.


The two sides are not engaging

Carclo cannot and will not enter a room with csrt until a price is named that they could begin to think about recommending, perhaps subject to limited due dil

CSRT will not bid against itself until it has to

As things stand it goes one of three ways for next step.

- csrt walk away
- csrt raise the bear hug this week
- csrt launch a bid towards end of pusu period

The more I think about it, and looking at the advisers of csrt, the more I believe they wouldn't have done what they've done without being ready and able to go route 3.

The unknown is what car have been doing in defence preparation, let us pray that for once they are pulling out the stops and being professional.

[illiswilgig] 19/7/2018 10:42

Seems the Bod believes its best defence at the moment is to stay silent and stick to the plan. Either because they don't have anything better to say, or because they want to keep their powder dry.

Made me chuckle anyway.

cheers

[thechurch333] 19/7/2018 08:30

I would not expect to hear anything more from them yet on the Consort bid. Good to see Consort shares attempting a rally this morning.

[1gw] 19/7/2018 08:25

But completely silent on the matter at the front of most shareholders' minds (I would have thought). Have they engaged with Consort? Are they still refusing to engage? Can they not at least mention work they're doing to prepare a defence document should Consort announce it's intention to table a hostile offer when the current phony war comes to an end on 30th July?

[rivaldo] 19/7/2018 07:38

Today's rather encouraging trading update should only add to CAR's appeal for Consort and other potential bidders.

For the record, expectations are for 11.4p EPS this year, rising to 12.5p EPS next year:



"Trading to date in the current financial year has been in line with the Board's expectations.

Progress in securing new Automotive lighting and medical development contracts within LED Technologies and Technical Plastics has been good and is in line with our planned timescales. The implementation of our operational improvement plans is well underway and encouraging progress has been made."

[pldazzle] 14/7/2018 00:34

1gw - No, that's one Stephen Guy Hill OBE (sources: beta.companieshouse.gov.uk and Google)

My own thinking is that this SNH can't be in a concert party with Consort, no pun intended, as it would have had to have been declared. So he must have bought either in hope of an improved offer, or to resist offers and hang in there on fundamental grounds. Presumably he sees a win/win situation.

[1gw] 13/7/2018 17:25

By my reckoning we now know 31 shareholders holding 86% of Consort, and 14 shareholders holding 66% of Carclo.

Not a lot of activity disclosed this week, although more than last week: on the Carclo side mainly steady buying by Axxion (disclosed this week, for buying on 2nd, 6th, 9th, 11th) and on the Consort side only really one big purchase - of 100k shares by Polar Capital on 10th July - matched more-or-less and on the same day by sales by Wellington (70k) and Schroders (20k).

[1gw] 13/7/2018 17:15

Is he the Stephen Hill who is ex-CEO of FT Group, ex-CEO of Betfair, currently on board of IG Group?

[queeny2] 13/7/2018 11:29

WHO IS STEPHEN NIGEL HILL who declared > 3% today and whose side is he on

[queeny2] 13/7/2018 11:28

If by realistic you mean cash only forthcoming if recommendation then that could indeed be correct

[queeny2] 13/7/2018 11:27

AgreeAgreeDisagree - institutions will roll into csrt and stay, existing shareholders might buy more as transformationalDisagree - they have accordion facility £100m iirc so able to pay part/all cash presumably subject to plan to repay (sell led etc)Q remains can they risk that.Actual hostile bid would be lower than they would pay for recommendation, because of that risk.

[boadicea] 13/7/2018 09:00

Interesting link - It does a good job of convincing Consort shareholders that CAR is a fantastic bargain.
At the same time it convinces me that they are bidding far too low, particularly for an all-share offer. There must be a risk that CAR holders would cash in their new CSRT shares and significantly dent the price for some time. CSRT is not currently in a realistic position to offer any cash alternative which, imo, weakens their position.

[queeny2] 12/7/2018 11:47

Here's the CSRT shareholder presentation on the hostile approach, worth readinghttps://www.consortmedical.com/investor-centre/disclaimer-02july2018/proposal-02july2018/

[queeny2] 09/7/2018 12:52

Hi Andrew

'Long term' doing some heavy lifting in that sentence I think, but I agree it shouldn't go straight back to 80.

If this bid goes away we're back to the long haul I think. Companies that do two quite different things with zero customer or manufacturing overlap are pretty tough to bid for without a recommendation.

Still for me the most likely outcome is a recommended deal. That not happening would mean that either CSRT can't see the upside at a price that CAR will accept (with LED not helping, it's not their field) or CAR are extremely stubborn, and their shareholders passive.

I'm not holding out much hope for counter-bidder for whole thing.

[andrewbaker] 09/7/2018 12:16

Well ... I sold out a lot before this situation arose, and have now bought back in. Whilst the drop in price in the past was not welcome, I believe that the company has good product and good potential which will be realised. As Consort believe so too, there are probably others out there weighing up the situation. At today's price, Carclo is a good long term buy, IMHO, and the bid premium - unlikely to go away - makes the buy-back compelling. Anything under 120p is a steal, I think. DYOR and respond accordingly.

[queeny2] 09/7/2018 11:27

a) both sides barely been round the shareholders yet

b) try not to bid against yourself

If CAR are betting they won't go hostile with an actual offer (I think they're wrong, eventually) then the phony war can last a while

[gordongekko4] 09/7/2018 09:34

I was certain that Consort Medical was going to bump their offer today if they wanted to maintain momentum in this process - the fact that they didn't surely makes it less likely that this deal will go through before the end of the 28 day period after which they will have to walk away for at least six months...

[1gw] 07/7/2018 14:34

church - Aberforth

I agree we're missing a holdings notice. They may think declaring their position through the OPD is sufficient to replace any holdings notice they were about to give?

They declared 8.9m shares (12.2%) as of 4th June and declared 9.9m shares as of 2nd July. So they managed to pick up 1.0m shares between the 2 dates, perhaps largely on 15th June when 4.5m shares were traded. They would have gone through the 13% threshold at about 9.5m shares, so they were well over the threshold by 2nd July - I suppose it is possible that they had a buy order in for 1m shares, which was only completed on 29th June.

[1gw] 07/7/2018 14:16

So I've checked the notices again, and my revised view of declared activity this week is:

Carclo
Axxion holdings notice >5% on 2nd July, 5.05% declared
Lakestreet 8.3 disclosing buying c. 288k shares on 2nd July

Consort
Aviva bought 170 shares, sold 280 shares
Blackrock bought 431 shares

That's out of: 1.7m shares traded on 2nd July in Carclo and about 0.7m in total since then (source: Yahoo! Finance); just a few thousand a day traded on Consort.

In theory we ought to have seen an 8.3 from Axxion detailing what it actually traded on 2nd, which would have given us an idea of how much of the 1.7m is accounted for between Lakestreet and Axxion.

Good to see that there was some buying of Carclo from institutions on 2nd July, but taking the week as a whole it still seems to me like very subdued activity for a live M&A situation.

[thechurch333] 06/7/2018 19:45

And the Henderson sale was back in March 2017, so my previous comments on them being a weak holder DON'T apply. That's also bullish!

[thechurch333] 06/7/2018 19:38

I think the Aberforth declarations may be incorrect or incomplete!

On 6th June they reported they had increased their holding from 11.58% to 12.18%.
On 3rd July they reported their holding was 13.57% and, as 1gw correctly points out, they stated no new dealings since the offer date. SO WHERE IS THE DECLARATION OF THEM GOING THROUGH 13%? This is a statutory declaration regardless of there being an offer. I don't see an RNS for this.

Do you agree 1gw or has the heat got to me?

In any case, the important point is that Aberforth have been adding in recent weeks, and that's bullish.

[1gw] 06/7/2018 18:24

Actually, my post 912 is incorrect.

Axxion and Lakestreet gave holdings notices (TR-1) saying that they crossed thresholds on 2nd July.

Axxion hasn't given an 8.3 for its purchases as far as I can see, but Lakestreet has, disclosing that it bought getting on for 300k shares on the first day, i.e. 2nd July.

[1gw] 06/7/2018 18:11

They may have added since the last publicly disclosed position, but all 3 of those companies reported their position as of 2nd July, the start of the "offer period". Section 3 which should record any dealings was blank. In the case of Aberforth, for example, they state "N/A- Opening Disclosure" under "purchases and sales". Link below.

Under the 8.3 rules, they have to disclose dealings by 3:30pm the business day after the dealing. So by now we should have seen any dealings up to and including yesterday.

[thechurch333] 06/7/2018 17:49

I looked at the shareholder declarations against what I think is a reliable source for holdings data prior to the approach. As per my post of yesterday, I think Aberforth have added, Hendersons have reduced, Schroders added a tiny amount. Apologies if I've got this wrong.