Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[illiswilgig] 27/1/2018 14:14

Queeny - Quite so !

Once Bitten, Twice Shy, Thrice Allergic!

cheers

[queeny2] 27/1/2018 13:08

We might remark that his successor at Senior as CEO was paid £800,000 in 2016, Rollins had that job for some years. He has to buy some shares, he did well to wait. If he keeps buying I shall pay attention.

[yump] 27/1/2018 12:22

Well I guess if you believe in their good judgement, then its encouraging, but I'd rather buy into shares where the statements were good AND the directors were buying.

[ansc] 27/1/2018 11:36

Thanks, Mister MD, rivaldo missed that snippet. It will be interesting to read what the company critics make of that revelation!

[mister md] 26/1/2018 20:05

Another 65000 director purchase RNS - shame it shows after hours ...

[queeny2] 25/1/2018 22:22

I like you, currypasty. Factual. £400k minimum package, probably £500k in practice as they won't zero bonus. Thanks for reference and link.

[meijiman] 24/1/2018 15:05

Overpaid by a factor of ten then.............

[currypasty] 24/1/2018 13:06

director wealth is probably non of our business, however salary and remuneration/ bonuses is..




page 42 of the results suggests 'on target' package of £640k, rising to £1.04 million 'maximum' for CEO

[meijiman] 24/1/2018 12:46

If he was any good the share price would be back near 500p and everyone would be happy. Hardly rocket science.

[rivaldo] 24/1/2018 12:34

Great to see the CEO splashing out £84,000 on shares at 83.87p. This is a significant move, given my understanding that CAR's directors are not particularly wealthy. It is indeed a large proportion of his net annual earnings.

[currypasty] 24/1/2018 11:07

that is a decent purchase, IMO

however, his track record at buying CAR shares is not so good

8/9/17 Bought 14k at £1.41
13/7/17 as a result of performance incentive, +31k shares at £1.56
16/12/16 transferred 16k to ISA at £1.29

perhaps this time he will be lucky?

[illiswilgig] 24/1/2018 11:00

CEO just spent £80k ish on shares? Anyone think he's trying to send a message? Or does he just think that 85p is good value? That's about 25% of his gross annual pay, probably more like 40% of his net?

[ali47fish] 24/1/2018 10:55

wow can belive ceo buying 100000 shares!

[rivaldo] 23/1/2018 10:16

Bouncing steadily this week on excellent volumes, indicating good demand at these levels, be it Aberforth or others buying more.

[meijiman] 23/1/2018 09:44

Credibility shot to pieces hence the recent changes.

[yump] 23/1/2018 09:26

Well imo they're all talking nonsense, as I cannot recall any company (especially a small one) whose profits reduced below previous years, for two years on the trot and then carried a p/e over 10.

For the record the eps is going to be:
11.5p
9p
11p

As for growth, they've had several attempts, claimed it was about to start and then failed. Unlucky maybe, but there's a limit.

I really don't know what the analysts are on, apart from a quest to save face in the light of previous fails in getting it right here.

100p is certain at some point I think, but that could easily be the limit of any excitement.

[rivaldo] 22/1/2018 12:31

A 154p share price would mean a current year P/E of 13.7 in only a couple of months' time, which is far below the sector average. A discount is necessary for obvious reasons, but a P/E of 13 or 14 is really not challenging given the potential for growth.

All of the analysts have converged on similar EPS forecasts of around 9p EPS+ rising to 11p+, and similarly with their price targets, not just Edison.

Assuming CAR deliver on those forecasts - and hopefully CAR have briefed the analysts to a conservative set of numbers if they're wise - then the market will react accordingly if there's news of those contracts coming back into play.

[rivaldo] 22/1/2018 11:16

New research note out from Edison today - they go for 9.2p EPS for the year ending soon, with 11.2p EPS to March'19 (with a 3.9p dividend):



Their new valuation range is 145p-154p.

They also note that (1) their forecasts are "conservative" re the introduction of the mid-volume auto lighting programme commencing this year, and (2) they've as yet taken no account of the likely tax benefits to CAR of the Trump tax cuts.

Given CAR's usual volatility I agree their conclusion that if CAR issue news flow confirming that the delayed contracts are being signed off, then there could be a quick recovery back to 120p-130p and then upwards from there:

"We believe that newsflow demonstrating that the contract delays besetting both divisions are over should help close the valuation gap, with potential for further share price appreciation beyond this as Carclo begins to deliver on the mid-volume automotive lighting programmes."

[queeny2] 19/1/2018 15:07

I think you're looking at the wrong business. Although wipac is experiencing order delays this is a normal risk, normal experience. As long term people here will know, I believe OEM motor suppliers are always doomed to be price takers, they have zero power however theoretically embedded in a supply chain they are. Carclo vs Porsche, who wins that negotiation?The statement on CTP, the real core business, was new news, and not good news.

[rogerrail] 19/1/2018 14:48

With automotive NPI, it is common for negotiations on price and supply agreements to delay the contract award. They will have been involved in the vehicle development and hence are all but tied into the supply chain.

[bigtbigt] 19/1/2018 13:32

PUGLY - I agree, all things considered, and extrapolating from past record, the vultures will soon be gathering. Glad I made a quick 25% out of them this year, but now would not touch with barge pole.

[pugugly] 19/1/2018 11:16

CURRYPASTY - To answer your 689 possibly sub 50p with a fund raise at >40p. Just a wild guess - 2nd option a very low ball take out / take private by a vulture fund.

[currypasty] 19/1/2018 11:07

" However, while the Wipac business has continued to operate well, delays in the award of three new contracts are expected to materially reduce the division's profit for the current year. It is still anticipated that Wipac will be successful in winning a number of these programmes despite the uncertainty on timing. "



What if they don't win any of them ?