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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Carclo Plc LSE:CAR London Ordinary Share GB0001751915 ORD 5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.09 1.59% 5.75 5.50 6.00 5.88 5.50 5.88 356,964 16:35:14
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Chemicals 144.9 -14.7 -25.4 - 4

Carclo Share Discussion Threads

Showing 17451 to 17474 of 18425 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
15/1/2018
17:27
I think we've all faced that dilema of whether to sell or average down Yump. I've changed stance recently and rather than being fussed at getting in for "deep value" before the market has cottoned on but rather after proof and in the early stages of the marketing recognising the value - probably then missing the first few percent of any gains but having a greater strike rate. That's the theory anyway, early days for the proof of the pudding. So, I sold back in November not because I expected today's miss (certainly not as big) , but because I thought they'd got a lot to do just to meet "expectations" and they really needed a decent "beat" to get re-rated. You (partially correctly) took issue with my selling CAR to buy IQE (at virtually the 2017 high). As of Friday I was -24% on that "pairs" trade. As of today +9%. Of course had I sold CAR and gone in to cash I'd be +43%. On reflection IQE probably didn't meet my newly developing criteria at the time, nor even now, because although I thought their December statement was excellent, the market didn't agree (yet). No poibt being right, until/unless the market agrees with you! Hey ho - Carclo will remain on my watchlist now, but I can't see that I'll be a likely buyer anytime this year.
kazoom
15/1/2018
16:54
May get reaction tomorrow when US markets are open. I can see a fundraising coming soon and maybe the best for long term stability.
beeezzz
15/1/2018
16:45
"mutterings about margin improvement to support Tech" - I should very much hope so , with an operating margin of just 7.6% there is a lot of room for improvement , no wonder the FD got the boot. Pension shortfall is overblown because -gilt yields are increasing -far from people living longer, mortality rates in the UK are now increasing. - correction of the shortfall is spread over decades.
rogerrail
15/1/2018
16:15
twist....I agree the pension shortfall is hanging over the company and we see what happened to Carillion major pension problems....no way of plugging it, which is why the plug was pulled. US closed today...wonder if more selling tomorrow...
beeezzz
15/1/2018
16:10
I think if they'd just been subject to project delays, fair enough, but there's too much other stuff, including mutterings about margin improvement to support Tech. Plastics. Might as well keep and hope for something approaching 100p to sell at some point; beyond that is anybody's guess.
yump
15/1/2018
15:14
£30m debt and rising, pension deficit and poor cash generation don't make it an obvious top up opportunity after today's fall IMHO. The strength of the financial function, oversight and budget forecasting is also a concern... There is a risk that another warning may lead to a breach of banking covenants and then you're in a whole new world of pain (see Carillion!?). When you can invest in any other share, I don't see the risk / reward in CAR being favourable at the moment.
twistednik
15/1/2018
14:27
Eastbourne1982 bottom fished at 8:20am but still well under water on total holding.
pugugly
15/1/2018
14:22
I note that one of the non-execs used to be ceo at Avon. I've dabbled in that one several times. I'm sure he could make a contribution here in an executive capacity if he so desired.
meijiman
15/1/2018
13:43
Slightly disappointed, are management up to the job, seems to be full of bad decisions. DIA came out with profits warning just before Xmas, also a very illiquid stock and has almost recovered from that warning. However, they do say profits warnings come in threes....
beeezzz
15/1/2018
12:44
I have a new strategy for the future - not to buy anything beginning with 'C'. Seems just as sound as trying to pick safe businesses.
yump
15/1/2018
12:41
PUGUGLY, Do you ever actually buy any shares ?? You generally seem to be on BB's of shares that have just tanked or are in big problems. What are you looking to buy ? ? I'd be interested.
eastbourne1982
15/1/2018
12:36
pugugly Well cynicism gets you some stick, but it never actually ever loses money in the way that trust can do. Although some folk would say you lose out on a gain by being cynical, but that's not the same as actually losing money. I used to sell on a sign of any trouble at all - even the words 'challenging market', until I made some very good profits when I didn't sell. Now a few have gone the other way ! I suppose the best strategy is to average down on everything that looks like a temporary blip, or nothing, as you can't guess which ones will recover and which won't.
yump
15/1/2018
12:35
Peel Hunt now go for 9p EPS to this March, with 10.9p EPS to March'19. Good to see all the analysts coming in around the same estimates: Https://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2018-01-15/ "The anticipated stronger H2 performance has not materialised so the FY result is now expected to be significantly lower than previously planned. As a consequence of delayed projects and lower customer orders, the Board has also reduced its profit expectations for FY2019. However, the Group’s financing remains healthy and it continues to operate well within its banking covenants. We have cut our FY18 and FY19 PBT forecasts by 30%. The shares have been hit hard on this morning’s news, despite the significant underperformance over the last six months. At this level, we see recovery value if Management can deliver on the revised forecasts. We have cut our Mar’18 PBT by 30% to £9.0m (9.0p). Most of the damage is at Technical Plastics, which accounts for £2.8m of the £4.0m EBITA miss this year, but the Wipac & Aerospace EBITA forecasts have also been cut. The size of the downgrade reflects the large contribution from tooling profits and the degree of fixed costs, so the delayed contract awarding has a disproportionate impact on profits. We have also cut our Mar’19 PBT by 30% from £15.4m to £11.0m (10.9p). In theory, the contract slippage from H2 this year, into next and the ramp up in medium-volume Wipac programmes towards the end of next year should underpin the FY2019 profit forecast. However, we are choosing to adopt a far more conservative approach."
rivaldo
15/1/2018
12:26
after so much promise. promise . promise .for years this will really struggle to regain any credibility
9degrees
15/1/2018
11:43
Market cap now £58 million. Debt expected to be £33 million. Pension deficit £25 million. Hard to value as consistently over-promise and under-deliver.
elsa7878
15/1/2018
11:41
yump- Your 650 so very very true suffered too often from that during commercial life Hence why I am a cynic !! - but managent very much at fault (imo) for not drilling down a asking the difficult questions and being fobbed off.
pugugly
15/1/2018
11:16
66p probably a bargain.
yump
15/1/2018
11:10
No way in a month of Sundays is this going to be rated at greater than 10x, as it will be going backwards for the next two years. Unless they bring in all the contracts suddenly this coming year. You don't get a rating > 10 for shrinking. Potentially gives a reasonable gain if buying under 100p though I suppose, assuming some upside to forecasts. Those forecasts must be assuming that there is an ongoing lack of contracts, rather than just delays, if the figures are not going to meet 2018-2019 forecasts.
yump
15/1/2018
11:08
Well the best case I think, is that they are simply incompetent at making a realistic assessment of likely contract signings. I can't imagine all these delays have come out of the blue. Perhaps the sales directors are scared to tell the board what is actually happening on the ground. Seen that myself. Chinese whisper from the sales guy, to the regional manager, to the sales director, where an unlikely contract turns into an imminent signing that never happens.
yump
15/1/2018
11:06
from Equity Development Carclo is a leading global designer and contract manufacturer (FY17 sales 70% non-UK) of fine tolerance and often mission critical components for the medical (46%), optics (5%), aerospace (5%) and luxury/supercar (27%) markets. Although clearly disappointing, we think today’s update of a ‘near-perfect storm’ should not be viewed as materially damaging to Carclo’s longer term prospects. Here, underpinned by the positive secular tailwinds of rising healthcare spend and increasing model fragmentation within the high-performance car market. In fact, the Board is still hopeful of signing all 5 of these contracts in due course. What’s more, several self-help measures have been kicked-off in order to improve existing profit margins, especially within Technical Plastics (TP) - with cash continuing to be tightly controlled. Indeed, in terms of the balance sheet the group is “operating well within its banking covenants”, with net debt expected to end March at £33m, equivalent to a comfortable 2x EBITDA (vs 1.5x LY). Separately, and after 14 years as Group Finance Director, Robert Brooksbank has decided to move on at the end of March to pursue other career opportunities. Similarly, Chairman Michael Derbyshire has chosen to step down at July’s AGM and will be replaced by non-exec Mark Rollins. Current Financial Controller, Richard Ottaway, will become interim CFO from 1st April until a permanent successor is appointed. With regards to the numbers, we have cut our FY18 and FY19 PBT forecasts to £9.0m (vs £12.4m before and £11m LY) and £11.0m, respectively, which in turn has pushed our valuation down from 206p to 145p/share. That said, we still anticipate the final dividend will be reinstated next year, albeit at a lower level of 1.0p (vs 1.5p). Even at the last closing price of 125p, we continue to see the stock as lowly rated, trading on 11.5x EV/EBIT and 13.4x PER multiples; or 20%-40% discounts compared to peer averages.
robow
15/1/2018
11:05
Bouncing now. As I said, the early markdown was far too severe, as it usually is. Interesting that N+1 Singer is not the house broker and still forecasts 9.1p EPS rising to 11p EPS. The house broker's forecast would often be higher. Equity Development have also issued a new note today. They have a 145p target and have the following forecasts: this year to 31/3/18: 9.3p EPS next year to 31/3/19: 11.4p EPS Https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/edreader/?ltknx=bc23bf7c00a55cab8138cfb35754ec55XlPVpA%3D%3D&;d=%3D%3DwN3MjM They conclude that the stock looked "cheap" even at 125p.
rivaldo
15/1/2018
11:03
Oversold this morning to let some big trades through, should see a continued bounce here, imo
currypasty
15/1/2018
10:08
1.25 m trade at 67p
currypasty
15/1/2018
09:39
Any news yet of the house broker forcast (Peel Hunt) - remember N1Singer is not House broker.
pugugly
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