Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[beeezzz] 02/7/2018 21:54

How much is the medical part worth or for that matter the whole company, I've seen a share price forecast of 165p

[overmars] 02/7/2018 21:35

Should sell Medical to highest bidder and return funds to shareholders. We clearly have a very motivated buyer - willing to bid for the whole company to get Medical.

[queeny2] 02/7/2018 13:38

Yes, but they only get one bite - once they're in, absent alternative buyers, it's all over, so the top price has to be extracted before they get in.

[1gw] 02/7/2018 13:23

Reads like an invitation to Consort to put a "sensible" price on the table so they can allow access to data doesn't it?

[queeny2] 02/7/2018 13:11

just did! exactly in your format. It says nothing, oh dear, nothing at all, that's weak, no urging shareholders to take no action, no financial advisers named other than NMR, whoops, dead in water I fear.

edit - the weakness of the statement has two meanings:

a) they have no current worked-up defence, in terms of credible standalone strategy
b) their ability to compel Consort to pay thru the nose is limited

so from what we knew just before the response, it increases the probability of a deal but lowers the possible maximum likely price a deal could occur at.

They have one card really - Just Say NO to meeting/discussion. It's worth a lot to Consort to get a recommended friendly transaction, just a question of the price for a recommendation now I'd say.

It really is the weakest possible response I've ever seen.

[1gw] 02/7/2018 13:06

In fact, given the time elapsed since Carclo rejected the Consort approach, you might expect Carclo had by now engaged advisors to think about alternative buyers to Consort.

About time they got out their initial response isn't it? "The Board of Carclo notes the announcement issued by Consort today..."

[queeny2] 02/7/2018 13:02

They will need to present strong strategic alternatives to the deal mooted by Consort.

That will include a remaining solo proposition, which might include future sale of either health or automotive.

If the solo proposition doesn't have traction, then how to get the highest price becomes the question, which would include consideration of alternative buyers.

Issue is the strange mix of health and automotive in finding someone to look at it - any buyer, whether trade or PE, would need to split the divisions and keep one, sell one. Consort are being quite adventurous here.

[1gw] 02/7/2018 12:51

That suggests the CEO might look for a white knight then (if he reads the institutions the same way). Ie a buyer that would find a role for him or at least allow him to exit with reputation less damaged. Any candidates?

[queeny2] 02/7/2018 12:43

meijman - yes he has, and it's been a torrid time, ending with double profit warning and sacking of FD and starting with you remember well what. Hence my view that company is dead duck in this battle unless the chair and fd can provide great credibility for shareholders to give it a go rather than roll into shares in the new bunch. I can see significant institutional support for the deal.

[meijiman] 02/7/2018 12:10

Illis-think ceo has been in situ since 2013? That's the key job..not the Chairman or FD.

[queeny2] 02/7/2018 12:01

Tricky AGM on 19th. hxxp://www.carclo.co.uk/~/media/Files/C/Carclo-v2/investor-docs/results-and-presentations/carclo-agm-circular-2018-web.pdf

[illiswilgig] 02/7/2018 11:55

meijiman - No!

I think CAR management have done a terrible job.

But there is a new management team just about to take the reigns (as Queeny describes) and FWIW I think the new chairman has been behind the more professional response to the last profit warning and I suspect that although he doesn't actually become chair for a couple of weeks he is a NED anyway and is probably behind the old chair being put out to grass. I would much prefer that the new team, especially the FD gets a chance to prove their worth - and Queeny's comments reinforce my view.

cheers

Illis

[fillipe] 02/7/2018 11:36

Level totals.... bid/ask 3:1, so CAR being very well wanted.

f

[fillipe] 02/7/2018 11:27

CAR - racing up, as I type.

Now 102p v 104p.

f

[queeny2] 02/7/2018 09:54

I'm now long, fyi, longer than I was short before.

Thank you early posters this morning, I might not have noticed the announcment otherwise

[queeny2] 02/7/2018 09:50

This used to be my business, I played every takeover in the UK, I was a so-called risk arbitrageur. But that was a while ago, so the muscles are taking a while to reappear.

The bidder, based on ten minutes due dil: results imminent. Acquisitive in mentality and practice, they even have lending facilities that come into action specifically for acquisitions. Willing to go hostile here. Doing what they've done to date opportunistic and very unfriendly. 36 p/e on dreary growth, seem loved.

The target: All over the shop. New FD and chairman not even in their chairs, no new strategy explained to shareholders, series of profit warnings no dividend etc etc we all know that, very limited love in the ranks as shown by pe multiple.

The business fit: excellent, really excellent, in medical.

Problems: automotive, is it saleable

Next step: They need to meet. Consort cannot really proceed in the face of implacable opposition from carclo board because they have no numbers. hence the statement. Can carclo refuse? up to their shareholders. I'd say no, but the new chair will make his mind up and will have to justify to shareholders.

Current offer uncompelling, next stage is Consort meeting Car shareholders and promising them more, and some cash, if they will tell their Board to meet.

IF THEY SHARE A NUMBER OF SHAREHOLDERS then Consort are completely in the driving seat. Schroders have 7.2% of both companies, so Andy Brough if he's still there is in favour of the deal. Otherwise no real overlap.

[queeny2] 02/7/2018 09:36

Right, I UTTERLY loathe Consort.

Their strap-line, on everything, is 'One Source Fits All'

They deserve to be shot for that.

[queeny2] 02/7/2018 09:31

Illis - still short, sadly.

No statement from CAR means they've been caught completely napping here in preparedness.

New chairman takes over July 19
FD joins July 18
New NED 20 July

That's vicious from Consort, they've found a completely naked target without a functioning board or a Finance Director with two profit warnings.

A very hostile act, meaning they will be prepared to go hostile and take it to shareholders.

[meijiman] 02/7/2018 09:29

You claiming Carclo management has done a good job?! LOL

[illiswilgig] 02/7/2018 09:10

Not exactly a frenzy of buying CAR shares this morning! If the market thought there was any merit in the 116p offer it would surely be trading above 92p right now?

I don't want to sell my CAR shares - this is way too much fun!

cheers

Illis

[illiswilgig] 02/7/2018 09:06

Oh b&*ger!!!!

I was just about to press the button on adding a few more - but greedily thought it might slip a little lower, having already overcome my reluctance and bought some at 90p and again at 80p.

Well done Queeny on your timing. Again!

Not surprised that Carclo management won't meet with consort. It's an all-share paper offer at a derisory price. 7 x next years forcast pre-tax and 9x next years post tax profits. Doesn't reflect the benefits that consort claim to be gaining from the purchase.

CAR have just put together what I think will prove to be an excellent management team in the medium term. I expect CAR are busy meeting with their own major shareholders to put their view that shareholders will likely do much better holding 100% of carclo than with Consort shares?

cheers

Illis

[rivaldo] 02/7/2018 07:38

Yep - at 116p.

The Board are presumably holding out for more (hopefully much more!). Let's see if this draws out further bidders - or an increased bid from Consort Medical since they still appear to be keen despite CAR's rejection of their interest.

[1gw] 02/7/2018 07:36

Interesting. Let's hope someone else wants it as well and we can get an auction going.

Should at least lead to an rns from Carclo saying why they have (apparently) refused to engage.

[davemac3] 02/7/2018 07:09

Takeover bid!

[cellars] 28/6/2018 14:10

the new non-exec did well at both Hamworthy and Cape.