Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[kazoom] 17/1/2018 13:10

It's also presumably quite difficult for an insti to grab a significant number of shares anytime except when there are lots of keen sellers about. So if they believe in the medium /long term prospects this might just be an opportunity not to pass up.

[yump] 17/1/2018 13:06

I never read anything into fund holdings - it ain't their money.

[rogerrail] 17/1/2018 12:05

Difficult to conclude anything other than Aberporth are party to more precise information than the woolly statement than was issued Monday as I cant see how they can base their subsequent investment decisions on that.

[rivaldo] 17/1/2018 11:54

RNS - Aberforth continue to mop up shares at these levels. They've now have 11.6%, or 8.48m shares and must have bought over another 600,000 shares on Monday and Tuesday:

[yump] 16/1/2018 14:34

May I refer you to the album cover for Floyd's Animals LP.

[meijiman] 16/1/2018 14:00

The directors of Carclo should look at this chart and ponder on their individual responsibility for this sorry state of affairs.

[pugugly] 16/1/2018 13:15

For Eastbourne1982
In the interests of transparency have exited yesterday's purchase for a quick profit but still well underwater on original holding. !!
PUGUGLY
15 Jan '18 - 14:27 - 663 of 679 Edit
0 0 0
Eastbourne1982 bottom fished at 8:20am but still well under water on total holding

[currypasty] 16/1/2018 12:55

I wonder what they paid for the core 10 ish percent... double, treble todays price? (they were a fiver a few years ago) bet they are a bit sick.. institutions eh!!!

[rivaldo] 16/1/2018 12:34

Aberforth Partners are buying - they've now increased to 10.74%:

[garth] 16/1/2018 09:46

I am not holding - and debt concerns following the lack of traction with Printable was one reason, having got badly burned on Dyson (DYS). I would like to invest here again having originally invested in the 20p days. I just keep an eye on them, waiting for a sound opportunity.

Would appreciate some thoughts on AEG from some long termers on here. I have a solid holding and they feel like they are just waiting to burst up. But coated HDD surfaces, printable electronics etc... I could just as easily be wrong. Anyone else looked at them?

Mkt Cap has multiplied on fundraising over the last couple of years - always makes the heart heavy. But if their coal drop-in replacement is adopted, could be absolutely massive... Been here before - genuinely interested in some views from people on here who are coming up to a couple of decades on these BBs.

G.

[meijiman] 16/1/2018 09:29

Mismanagement and a refusal to face facts and living on blind hope is a fatal combination. The full story needs to be seen in the context of the entirety of the releases put out by the company.

[yump] 16/1/2018 09:06

Took a loss on these yesterday - can't be doing with it any more and the best upside is I reckon 100p. There are others now where I think 25% is more likely in a much shorter timeframe.

Very disappointing. I kept some after all the hype and bought a few more when the forecasts seemed to be improving for the future, thinking I'd got the bottom.

It does make you want to march into boardrooms and create merry hell, when they seem incapable of making a genuine assessment of their own business in RNS's.

All hindsight I know, but I wonder what would have happened to the printable side if they had had a better team in place... I wonder if they really tried to sell to anyone other than Atmel and then rested on their laurels when they got that agreement.

It just brings it home that success is also down to having a whole group of very competent people at the helm and that doesn't happen that often and its very, very difficult to judge. Meeting them at events won't do it - gut feel doesn't work, especially when you've had a nice friendly enthusiastic chat.

[queeny2] 16/1/2018 00:30

Bits and bobs. I should be better at the long side, i'd be better off.

[yump] 16/1/2018 00:09

Just out of curiosity are you invested in anything as an investment ?

[queeny2] 15/1/2018 23:26

Illis, any counter view to mine?

[queeny2] 15/1/2018 23:25

The only way that statement could be worse is if the CEO had gone as well as the FD.Profit warnings come in threes. They're on two. Another to come under that rule. Whammy - profit warningDouble whammy - SIGNIFICANTLY below, and next year for sure tooTreble whammy - BOTH businessesQuad whammy - strategic review of ctp marginsQuin whammy - FD goes (banks/pension trustee?)Quad is interesting ... They don't really make money in CTP without new tooling contracts, so pricing of ongoing business is all wrong. In addition they haven't solved their operational issues yet .... the reason is that they are fairly structural imho, it's all part of the same story.I missed today, in wrong time zone, but it's a flat or short, use any opportunity to exit imho. I will be looking for openings to short from here.

[kazoom] 15/1/2018 17:27

I think we've all faced that dilema of whether to sell or average down Yump.

I've changed stance recently and rather than being fussed at getting in for "deep value" before the market has cottoned on but rather after proof and in the early stages of the marketing recognising the value - probably then missing the first few percent of any gains but having a greater strike rate. That's the theory anyway, early days for the proof of the pudding.

So, I sold back in November not because I expected today's miss (certainly not as big) , but because I thought they'd got a lot to do just to meet "expectations" and they really needed a decent "beat" to get re-rated.

You (partially correctly) took issue with my selling CAR to buy IQE (at virtually the 2017 high).

As of Friday I was -24% on that "pairs" trade. As of today +9%.

Of course had I sold CAR and gone in to cash I'd be +43%.

On reflection IQE probably didn't meet my newly developing criteria at the time, nor even now, because although I thought their December statement was excellent, the market didn't agree (yet). No poibt being right, until/unless the market agrees with you!

Hey ho - Carclo will remain on my watchlist now, but I can't see that I'll be a likely buyer anytime this year.

[beeezzz] 15/1/2018 16:54

May get reaction tomorrow when US markets are open.

I can see a fundraising coming soon and maybe the best for long term stability.

[rogerrail] 15/1/2018 16:45

"mutterings about margin improvement to support Tech" - I should very much hope so , with an operating margin of just 7.6% there is a lot of room for improvement , no wonder the FD got the boot.

Pension shortfall is overblown because
-gilt yields are increasing
-far from people living longer, mortality rates in the UK are now increasing.
- correction of the shortfall is spread over decades.

[beeezzz] 15/1/2018 16:15

twist....I agree the pension shortfall is hanging over the company and we see what happened to Carillion major pension problems....no way of plugging it, which is why the plug was pulled.

US closed today...wonder if more selling tomorrow...

[yump] 15/1/2018 16:10

I think if they'd just been subject to project delays, fair enough, but there's too much other stuff, including mutterings about margin improvement to support Tech. Plastics. Might as well keep and hope for something approaching 100p to sell at some point; beyond that is anybody's guess.

[twistednik] 15/1/2018 15:14

£30m debt and rising, pension deficit and poor cash generation don't make it an obvious top up opportunity after today's fall IMHO. The strength of the financial function, oversight and budget forecasting is also a concern...

There is a risk that another warning may lead to a breach of banking covenants and then you're in a whole new world of pain (see Carillion!?).

When you can invest in any other share, I don't see the risk / reward in CAR being favourable at the moment.

[pugugly] 15/1/2018 14:27

Eastbourne1982 bottom fished at 8:20am but still well under water on total holding.