Capricorn Energy Share Discussion Threads

[loglorry1] 05/6/2022 22:32

So what's in it for CNE shareholders? TLW production isnt cheap on an EV/bbl basis especially given the heavy hedging in place?

[silverstone1] 05/6/2022 13:21

THE ONLY CNE SHAREHOLDER IN FAVOUR OF THIS DEAL APPEARS TO BE NIGEL (PROBABLY MENTAL)!

[silverstone1] 05/6/2022 12:47

IT WON'T HAPPEN BECAUSE NO SANE CNE SHAREHOLDER WILL VOTE FOR THIS DEAL!

[maxplus2] 04/6/2022 22:32

What's the date for CNE to receive TLW shares?

[xxnjr] 04/6/2022 10:16

No probs Nigel and oiAl. TLW was a potential shipwreck drifting for the rocks before Rahul boarded. Rahul's actions so far (in my view) are basically knocking the outfit into shape to get it serviceable operationally and financially, with a view to becoming a consolidator and acquirer of w.afr assets being off-loaded by super-majors. Rahul not really in to Frontier Exploration, just ILX.

One stat; Ghana FPSO up time under CEO's
McDade 85%, or worse
Rahul 98%
[equates to win of about 15K bopd gross just on Ghana uptime (13% of 115K)]

Next year only 7 months away. 2023 Hedge stats probably better with additional hedges layered in.

[oilinvestoral] 04/6/2022 09:53

Thanks xxnjrI knew TLW were heavily hedged and I was just about to reply to Nigel but then I noticed your response. TLW recorded an almighty hedging loss for 2021 and with oil at $121 the loss will be even more eye watering in the mid year results .... I like their explo and appraisal assets and international diversity. The quality west African crude is both light & sweet (low CO2) and which is another 2 boxes ticked. I would like to see the balance sheet getting stronger over the next year or so (even after CNE cash it's not good enough for me to consider it) ...

[xxnjr] 04/6/2022 09:42

to be more exact, at 31/12/21 for 2022FY [p25 of TLW 2021 Annual Report]

42,500 bopd hedged

Weighted average bought put (floor): $51/bbl

Weighted average sold call: $78/bbl

[Prod Guidance for 2022FY of 59 - 65 bopd was reiterated on 25/5/2022]

Suggest you read p119 of annual report "Ghana Tax Assessments"
It's gone to Arbitration. Decision not anticipated this year according to TLW IR.

[nigelpm] 04/6/2022 08:27

Cheers. I need to start digging through old tlw RNS to understand the business in more detail. I still haven't completed decided what I'll do in terms of holding CNE. The African political risk does concern me.

[xxnjr] 04/6/2022 02:15

Pricing of TEN & Jubilee cargos are ave of 5 days Brent post the shipping date, adjusted for oil grade. It usually goes at a slight premium to Brent. Can't remember the exact numbers, but a fair whack (maybe about 65%) of Ghana production is hedged at $75. That was a condition of the $1.8bn bond refinancing.

[nigelpm] 03/6/2022 20:16

Meanwhile Brent back over 120 bucks..this combination will be printing money at these levels.

[chachacha] 03/6/2022 17:34

Merge two mediocre companies and you get one (slightly bigger) mediocre company.

[silverstone1] 03/6/2022 15:38

THE SHARE PRICE WOULD INCREASE IF THE CASH MOUNTAIN WAS RETURNED TO CNE SHAREHOLDERS VIA AN ISSUE OF B SHARES!

[tron22] 03/6/2022 15:15

Guys for June 1st the trading volumes for cne was 23,198,654 … 23 million. Why did this not sharply increase the price of the stock? What will it take to increase the share price? As management is clueless.

[silverstone1] 03/6/2022 13:00

THIS DEAL IS DEFINITELY TRANSFORMATIONAL FOR CNE BECAUSE THE CASH MOUNTAIN WILL BE TRANSFORMED INTO A DEBT MOUNTAIN AND WHEN THE NEXT BEAR MARKET ARRIVES THE SHARE PRICE WILL COLLAPSE!

[dunderheed] 03/6/2022 11:39

Agree fraz - apart from the fact not much on the market at reasonable prices.

1. dont think CNE have the necessary BD connections anyway to crystalise these if available - however not much bettered by TLW ironically!!
2. Compounded by the fact that CNE not having the BD connections - they will often probably not be preferred JV partners - due to not having much "true value" to add to JV's apart from the cash?
3. The only truly strong personnel on CNE management team appears to be the FD, IMHO?
4. Was he brought in to merge or sell CNE in first place and India f'ed that up or was he brought in to clear up the India mess - can't remember or be bothered to look when he joined but - either scenario makes sense?

All imho and dyor, plus normal "pub talk" rules of course!!

[frazboy] 03/6/2022 10:51

Sky, I think the reason the deal makes sense for Cairns shareholders is that there are no attractively priced assets out there. The market is impatient and wanted to see a deal. Handing back the rest of the cash to shareholders and reducing G&A and wasteful (basically all of Cairns) exploration expenditure was the alternative.

[skyship] 03/6/2022 09:31

Sad for CNE shareholders - looks to me as though this is a deal for management, not for shareholders. CNE cash squandered to bale out TLW debt; whilst making a strategic move for totally the wrong part of the World.

If not already out then time to do so, as prolonged underperformance likely.

Time to research CHAR (21p) & TRIN (135p).

GLA

[fizzmiss] 02/6/2022 21:52

Out of interest; why the massive spike in the share price end of July 2021???

[dunderheed] 02/6/2022 13:45

loglorry1 - I was just going to say similar - it merely means that the bond holders can get (part) their money back - which in itself can mean it is a better (slightly stronger) equity investment - but the two are not 100% linked, but of course there is some synergy, lol!!

[nigelpm] 02/6/2022 13:38

Lol. You implying there's no Value to equity holders in a huge lump of cash flowing into the business?? I don't really understand your point.

[loglorry1] 02/6/2022 13:35

"The increase in the tullow bond price tells you it's certainly a great deal for tlw shareholders and immediately proved."

No it doesn't. It means the cash that the combined group will have protects the TLW bondholders. The injection of cash means the value now breaks higher in the capital heirachy. The TLW bonds still trade sub-par. One interpretatin of that is that the new group equity is worthless!