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CNE Capricorn Energy Plc

170.50
3.00 (1.79%)
14 Jun 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Capricorn Energy Plc LSE:CNE London Ordinary Share GB00BNKT5L33 ORD 799/122P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  3.00 1.79% 170.50 215,538 16:35:23
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
170.50 171.50 172.50 169.00 172.50
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs USD 199.9M USD -144M USD -1.5199 -1.13 162.01M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:35:23 UT 53,601 170.50 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
14/6/202418:18CAPRICORN ENERGY 225
09/10/202301:21CAIRN - 2010 & BEYOND, GREENLAND, INDIA, etc7,716
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06/5/202121:21Indian government makes a move to protect overseas assets-

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Posted at 15/6/2024 09:20 by Capricorn Energy Daily Update
Capricorn Energy Plc is listed in the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CNE. The last closing price for Capricorn Energy was 167.50p.
Capricorn Energy currently has 94,743,291 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Capricorn Energy is £162,011,028.
Capricorn Energy has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -1.13.
This morning CNE shares opened at 172.50p
Posted at 07/6/2024 06:37 by last of the mohicans
The worrying bit of the article ......

"The North Sea Transition Authority and Offshore Petroleum Regulator for Environment and Decommissioning have been kept appraised of the prospective holding company administrations, and have provided certain assurances to the proposed administrators.

A separate secured bond with $50million outstanding has been issued by Waldorf Production UK, another group subsidiary.

The main assets secured in favour of this bond are its 20% interest in the Catcher field - separate from the 20% interest in Catcher previously noted - and 29.5% interest in the Kraken field.

Again, Waldorf Production UK, which owns these assets, is not in administration and will be engaging with an ad-hoc committee of bondholders in short order."


-----------

In other words the old CNE assets have this $50M bond that's now in default secured against them!

Looking more & more messy :(

LOTM
Posted at 05/6/2024 10:41 by last of the mohicans
Oh my that could throw a spanner in the works !

Could open up a lot of unknowns ..............

Will they still get the Columbus field or not ?

Will they still get the other $22.5M in 2025 ?

& what about the $48M liability that was covered, but CNE let Waldorf use that cash in the meantime!

All of that on top of the Senegal end of June deadline ...............

LOTM
Posted at 29/5/2024 13:44 by plasybryn
From: share price Angel EnergyDate: 23 May 2024 at 11:02:18 BSTCapricorn Energy (CNE LN) 192p, Market Cap £177m: Improvement in Egyptian receivablesCapricorn announced average YTD24 production is in line with the midpoint of 20-24kboe/d FY24 guidance, with an update on production performance to be provided later in the year.The Company reported receivables in Egypt have reduced from $169m to $151m enabling an improved net cash position of ~$101m as at end-April, ahead of settling a $25m contingent payment for Egypt to Shell.In Senegal, start-up of Woodside’s Sangomar development by the end of June could lead to a potential contingent payment of up to $50m in 1Q25 if crude oil prices remain above $60/bbl in 2H24.A perfunctory update ahead of the AGM, which points to the positive impact of the improved fiscal landscape in Egypt that has seen $71m of receipts during 4M24.The Company wants to see the initial results of its drilling activities before updating the market, with this year’s development activities expected to have a greater impact on 2025 production than 2024.Capricorn believes its market capitalisation implies that the underlying net asset value in Egypt are heavily risked, but we think management still has to demonstrate greater value from this stand-alone small-cap Egyptian producer than was available from the merger options to create a more balanced larger player preferred by the former management.
Posted at 29/5/2024 02:30 by last of the mohicans
So if I look at this from the AGM

"Since year end, Capricorn's cash position improved from $190m to $209m at 30 April 2024. Over the same period, receivables in Egypt have reduced from $169m to $151m, and debt drawn has reduced from $114m to $108m. Subsequent to 30 April, the Company has settled the $25m contingent consideration due to Shell related to the acquisition of the Egypt assets."

Its effectively saying as of 7th June 2024.

That the company has net cash of $26M ($209M - $50M dividend - $25M to Shell - $108M of debt) plus $151M of receivables its yet to receive.

Its also committed to spending $57M during the rest of 2024.

So in actual fact cash is going to be pretty tight for a quite a while - even when it gets a decent boost in early July for Q2 sales.

I guess the share price is being buoyed at the moment by the possible $50M Woodside payment even although they wouldn't receive it until early 2025 & then distribute it after that. With 72m shares in issue we're talking roughly £0.56 per share, which is a lot of cash relative to the market cap.

If there are any hiccups to the Egypt payments again, then they will have to cut-back on that cap-ex pretty darn quickly to ensure they have the cash to keep going (although they will get a little from the North Sea this time round to help sustain them & there admin costs are now much lower than before) so the burn rate will be much lower per month.

There's also only $12M left to pay to Shell in early 2025 & a bit more from Waldorf to come in to help off-set it.

In summary there cutting it pretty tight, I would have liked to see a little more wiggle room maybe $15 - 20M just to be on the safe side.

Not sure how they are going to be able to buy any more North Sea assets, unless the EGPC makes another hefty overdue receivables payments in the coming months. Issuing equity when its only effectively at current cash value ( & doesn't take into account Senegal payment or the value of Egypt embedded in the shares) would be daft & dilutive to everyone.

LOTM
Posted at 26/2/2024 14:53 by last of the mohicans
Hi xxnjr, :)

Glad you looked in :)

I'm not sure what to make of today's announcement, it doesn't sound very encouraging at all, sounds like they have lots of unresolved issues still!

It's going to be really interesting to see in a month's time how much money they have actually received from the government of Egypt since September last year & how high the outstanding amount is compared to before, not to mention the overdue amount.

The only good thing happening (well assuming there isn't more bad news to come to knock the share price even more) is the fact the buy-back program has been able to buy-in a decent amount of stock each day recently.

Still nearly £4M to be spent which means there currently on course to have around 89.5M shares in issue when it completes - but even at the current rate of purchases that's mid to late June!

Market Cap is only just above that £100M mark.

Good Luck
LOTM
Posted at 20/2/2024 22:27 by last of the mohicans
Wow that was an awful auction for anyone still in the stock.

Hopefully the buy-back picked up at least 50,000 shares for the day with an average price of say £1.13

The 2 groups shorting the shares are sure raking in the £'s at the moment, the share price decline seems to have accelerated of late - no doubt in part because of them.

Market cap is down to virtually £100M now (a touch over £103 as it stands) who would have thought it.

So tempting to start picking up a few shares now at this price, but where is the sign of a bottom ? is £1 or less achievable/realistic ......

GLA
LOTM
Posted at 28/10/2023 18:16 by last of the mohicans
Year End Prediction

30th June net cash position was $176M less the Roughly $100M special dividend that has now been paid.

Net receivables were $148M with $113M of it overdue.

2nd half capex in Egypt for development & production was put at $40 - $50M
G&A for the 2nd half I'm estimating as $30M weighted to Q3.

Share buy-back program $14M in the 2nd half (although I don't think it will be finished by year end).

Net interest payable on Egypt Loan $5M after allowing for interest receivable on Capricorn cash balances.

There is around $20.3M in the accounts due to be paid within 12 month's I'm guessing its payable around the end of the year / early Jan & is effectively offset by a matching cash balance, so all we'll see is a reduction in outstanding debt & a lower overall cash balance.

There is also $25M payable to Shell in Jan 2024.

The only other cash cost will be OPEX - I've calculate that at $13 per net boe. So on 6,000 bopd & 7,000 boed nat gas & 184 days that works out at $31.1M (1st half cost was $27.5M for comparison in the accounts)

Only other thing on the subtraction side is depletion of reserves, but that's an accounting number affecting the assets of the company not a cash number. The 1st half was down as $55.1M so I'll be using $60M as my number for this.

So total 2nd half cash expenditure is expected to be between $120.1M & $130.1M depending on the actual D&P number.

On the income side, I've estimated Brent oil to average $88 per barrel for the half & the discount for Egypt to be $2 per barrel taking it down to $86.

Thus oil income will be $95M (86 x 6000 x 184).

Working out the nat gas number is sadly more complex. Capricorn use a number of 5.6 to convert there gas to boe rather than the standard figure of 6. Which means it has a higher BTU number than 1055 per MCF. After much debate I've decided to price it at 6x$2.95 rather than 5.6x$2.95 although it doesn't really matter that much as the difference over the 6 months is only $1.5M

So nat gas income will be @ $22.75M

This gives us a total income on paper of $117.75M

I say on paper because although its earned in the current half year, payments are always in arrears. So for Oil production in Oct the cash isn't actually due to be paid until 1st Dec & Gas not until the following month. So the easiest way to think about it is payment being a quarter behind actual production.

So the 2nd half would normal get the income earned in Q2 & Q3 which in this case means the lowest oil prices for the year so far in May & June being in the calculation from a cash received perspective.

Bearing this in mind I'm going to use an overall number of $100M from the cash side of things with regard to income.

The next important question that needs to be addressed regards the overdue amounts, has this got worse/better/or stayed the same from what happened in the 1st half of the year.

I don't think they will have improved yet, so I've gone with a similar deterioration to that of the 1st half, ie a $50M increase in both net receivables & overdue amounts. Offset by a $20M increase in payables (the figures were $51M, $47M & $21M in the half year accounts). So effectively a further $30M deterioration.

Now to put it all together............


Cash of $76M + income in cash of $70M ($100M - $30M) = $146M
Less expenditure of between $120.1M to $130.1M

Leaving us with a net cash balance of between $15.9M & $25.9M

Plus net receivables of $215.75M ($148M + $50M + $17.75M) with $163M of it overdue ($113M + $50M) & net payables of $56M ($36M + $20M)

Now there is a scenario on these numbers where the company doesn't have the physical cash to pay the $25M to Shell in Jan 2024 although there should be payments coming into us on 1st of Jan (or close to then) of over $20M which would alleviate the problem. However that scenario only exists if Capricorn hasn't taken mitigating action before then like reducing the D&P spend / suspending the rest of what's left of the buy-back for a few weeks etc, or borrowing $15M max for 3 month's.

I'm sure they will take the appropriate action as needs be because Cheiron & Capricorn will simply not let the outstanding balances continue to build up without reducing there D&P spend or pushed it back until cash is coming in to match it, as its not in there interests to do so especially with Cherion being the largest Independent O&G in Egypt with many more licences than ours to deal with (fund) as well.

Our G&A expenses will be down to just $2M a month max by then as well & there will be a large incoming payment from Waldorf before April to make the cash bank balances look very rosy again.

Having dealt with the potential downside lets look at the upside of where things are.

I've used the max expenditure numbers in these calculations but I've not done so on the revenue side, oil production by late December should be nearer 7,000 bopd rather than the 6,000 I've used for example.

So our net position at the end of June was $186M ($76M cash + $112M net receivables [$148M - $36M of payables] ) of near liquid assets.

At the end of December we're looking at near liquid assets of between $175.65M & $185.65M ( with a minimum of $15.9M to $25.9M of it in cash + $159.75M net receivables [$215.75M - $56M of payables] ) Now obviously it would be preferable for the cash figure to be higher & the net receivables number lower by the corresponding amount.

In other words we're literally back to where we were at the end of June, only having spent another $40 - 50M on D&P that has increased our production rates ahead of 2024, $14M on the share buy-back & a large chunk of the $30M on G&A right sizing the business for the future.

Which makes for a very bright outlook for 2024, even if we were to ignore the Waldorf payment completely.

We'll have higher production & lower G&A costs, & as some of those net receivables get paid to us, they'll be a lot of room for dividend payments.

In Q1 of 2024 Expense's for example will come to around $64.5M ($25M Shell, $15M D&P, $15.5M OPEX, $6M G&A, $3M Debt Int).

Yet using 7,000 bopd & 6,000 boe of nat gas, revenue will come to $65.5M ( $54.75M Oil, $9.75M gas) using the same average prices of $86 for Egypt oil & $2.95 for gas.

Now you're saying where's the spare cash for ordinary dividends on those numbers !

Well in Q2 Expense's will drop to $43.5M ($20M D&P, $15.5M OPEX, $5M G&A, $3M Debt Int) & that's with increasing D&P by another $5M for the quarter. While income should actually increase due to production increases from the cash invested in Q1, but even leaving it unchanged we'll be $22.5M better off, meaning that Capricorn should be able to pay an interim dividend in Sept/Oct of around $15M easily. Translating that into a per-share number depends on what happens to the Waldorf payment & whether that was used to give us another special dividend & share consolidation before then. If it was then we'd be looking at around $0.20 per share for the interim dividend rather than say $0.15

As for the final dividend for 2024, well that would all depend on what the oil price does during the year, but if it did average out at a price similar to this year's then I wouldn't be surprised to see $30M being paid out ie potentially $0.40 per share (in May 2025) & $0.60 in total in ordinary dividends for the year to 31st Dec 2024 & that's just the beginning of these significant payouts.

The potential 2025 payment's from Waldorf & Woodside ahead of that final dividend announcement could have a significant bearing on the per share amount's. It will depend on the share price at that time as to how many shares would be cancelled from another consolidation, but I can see the potential for Capricorn to have just 55M shares in issue by then(90.55M end of 2023 to 75M in 2024), thus the final dividend payout would be around $0.55 per share instead of $0.40 which is a massive difference.

LOTM
Posted at 04/10/2023 09:25 by last of the mohicans
Just a reminder for everyone.......

The meeting to approve the Special Dividend of £0.56 per share, followed by the share consolidation of 2 new shares for every 3 existing ones is tomorrow Thursday 5th Oct.

The shares will then effectively go EX dividend at the close of business on Thursday 5th Oct. The share consolidation occurs ahead of the market opening on Friday 6th Oct.

Only this time round unlike in May ahead of the previous special dividend & share consolidation. The share price is above the balancing point. That means the gearing is in our favour this time round not against us.

The balancing point is 3 x £1.68 = £5.04 less the 3 x £0.56 dividend (£1.68) leaves you with £3.36 which when dividend by the 2 new shares would equate to a price of £1.68 each.

If the current price of £1.80 turns out to be the closing price on the 5th Oct, then the new shares should return to trading around £1.86 (£5.40-£1.68 = £3.72 / 2) to have the same market value as before.

If the share price goes higher then the gap will grow out from that £0.06 difference, if it falls it will shrink in size.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock especially for those institutions that have sold/lend for cash there voting rights to other's (all 19% of them) , which might be the reason behind the scramble for shares that looks to be occurring.

LOTM
Posted at 18/9/2023 20:38 by last of the mohicans
I thought I'd write this for anyone new here or for anyone who wasn't paying attention back in May when the company distributed $450M via a £1.15 special dividend & 70 old shares for 33 new share consolidation.

When I first looked at it the share price was around £2.25 - £2.30 a share & the share buy-back was active, which I found really strange because they were in effect over paying for the shares they were buying back!

I think someone in the company eventually picked up on that & the buy-back stopped until the share consolidation was done.

In actual fact they should have stopped it until the share price was below £2.177 & then continued again, why ?

Well the inflection point with a dividend of £1.15 & consolidation ratio of 70 to 33 works out to be £2.177.

I think examples are the best way of demonstrating it to you.

So 70 shares priced at £2.177 give a total value of &152.40 You then receive a dividend of £80.50 (£1.15*70), the ex-d price of the shares should then be £1.027 (£2.177- £1.15) multiple it by 70 & you have an equity value of £71.89. You then divide that equity value (£71.89) by 33 (new shares) & you get a price of £2.178 per share.

The consolidation ratio (70/33) means there are now only 47.14% of the shares in issue compare to before. So you have a large multiplier effect if the closing share price isn't £2.177.

If it was £2.24 instead, then the dividend is the same but the closing equity value is not £71.89 its £76.30 & when you divide that by 33 it works out at £2.312 after the consolidation. In other words the original £0.063 difference turns into one of £0.134 Which means you really wanted to still own the shares at the ex-d date because you were better off.

Conversely if the share price was £2.12 at the ex-d date, the consolidated shares should only return to market at £2.058 which makes you worse off holding them at the ex-d date you'd be better off selling out before hand & then buying them back afterwards.

-------------------------------

This time round the dividend is £0.56 & the consolidation ratio is 3 old into 2 new ones. So the inflection point is £1.68

This time the compression ratio is 66.66% so there is a lot less gearing than the last time round. So the effect isn't as dramatic as before, but it will still make a difference to your bottom line.

At an ex-d close of £1.74 the shares should return to trading at £1.77 & if its £1.62 then they should return at £1.59

--------------------------------

In May I expected the share price to rise ahead of the ex-d date that didn't happen & the share price was very weak on its return to trading.

LOTM
Posted at 14/9/2023 13:41 by last of the mohicans
taxi1,

I wasn't here when the share price was £2.50 or the 2 bids of around £2.70 a share were rejected.

I only got interested just before the £1.15 payout, so roughly the beginning of May this year.

I really like the story & what the new board are trying to achieve.

People have totally lost sight of the value here.

There were 315M shares in issue back then when they rejected £2.70 or £850M valuation for the company.

They paid out £362M (£1.15 per share) & reduced the shares in issue to 148.5M when the share price was like £2.18 a share. Which meant they effectively added £0.56 to the value of the shares that were left in issue to that previous £2.70 people had been willing to pay to buy/merge with the company.

The buyback has only enhanced that value further with 6M shares bought so far.

Now they are going to payout another £80M or £0.56 per share to reduce the number of shares in issue even further & they are doing it at an even cheaper price than before !

If you add the numbers up we will end up having 95M shares max in issue having paid out a total of £452M (362 + 80 + 10).

So if you think about it that means £400M (that someone was willing to pay previously at similar or lower oil & gas prices) is in those 95M shares ie the offer would be over £4 per share now.

The cost savings the new board are doing shows just how staggeringly badly the company was run previously. They are going to be saving roughly $50M a year in admin costs. That's a saving of $0.50 per share (post consolidation) saved going forward each year for many years to come.

Think about it, over 4 years that the current value of the company post consolidation retained for the benefit of shareholders & not needlessly waisted.

--------------------

Yes its being played by the institutions while they try to hoover up as much stock as they can. Goldman Sach's, Bank of America & possibly others have seen the potential value here & are getting as big a slice of the pie as they can.

I expect this to become a dividend stock next year (although the company's not saying that yet). In 2 years time CNE most likely will be yielding 25%+ annually on the money invested today.

Where else are you going to get such a fab return on your money .......

LOTM
Capricorn Energy share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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