Capricorn Energy Share Discussion Threads

[croasdalelfc] 13/5/2022 07:07

They bought back 900k on 22nd April - out of less than 5m traded

[controlledmadness] 13/5/2022 06:28

It was in the resolutions at the AGM. The ones that gave the buy back permission.
Seemed complicated at the time but when I searched on the site I could not find the list of resolutions to be voted on.

[nigelpm] 12/5/2022 18:05

Where have you seen that? I'm fairly sure that would not be released into the public domain for fairly obvious reasons.

[controlledmadness] 12/5/2022 17:01

I think there is a limit of 10 percent of the shares traded in the day and not above 105% of previous trade.
The was a complicated resolution on the buy back.

[nigelpm] 12/5/2022 12:47

log - it's cheap on a balance sheet valuation - I know I've banged on about this continually but you can't get away from that. Cash being 90%+ of the market cap means a lot has to go wrong to hurt your downside.

[croasdalelfc] 12/5/2022 12:39

Let's see if they bought back 800k shares as it dropped below 200p - like last time

[loglorry1] 12/5/2022 12:04

"Think it'll be a long time until oil is back down at $60."

Yeah and ppl never expected $100 when the oil price was negative. If western markets go into recession and China doesn't get a grip on Covid policy I can see demand falling very quickly. Russian oil finds a home anyway so its not like that supply is gone.

Nobody really knows where oil prices are heading to be honest but they are at the upper end of historic levels for sure.

I don't think CNE is expensive but it's not that cheap compared to other E&P either.

[gotabsirius] 12/5/2022 09:39

Think it'll be a long time until oil is back down at $60.

Off annual accounts company had circa $150m net cash at year end and with settlement that's $1.2bn. Post buy back and TO that leaves $500m. That doesn't account for 2022 income (or the $200m capex). However if these net off minimum that's $500m net cash and an EV of $250m for a company producing 43,000 boepd and significant exploration assets. Looks incredibly cheap imho

[loglorry1] 12/5/2022 09:04

"I don't think equity e&p reflects anywhere close to current commodity prices"

Of course not. But the way to value E&P is to value at more normal commodity prices say $60/boe and then add on a bit of a cash windfall for this period of elevated prices if you must.

[gotabsirius] 12/5/2022 08:59

Where do we think cash sits currently?

[nigelpm] 12/5/2022 08:52

I agree on the net cash position - given all the recent movements it would have been really useful to have that stated rather than the bland "significant net cash"

[controlledmadness] 12/5/2022 08:45

I think the chairman/womans statement was disappointing.
It just said everything is going as planned.
What would have been good would have been an end of first quarter unaudited financial statement to show how CNE is doing.
At the moment it is really guess work and working from end of year financials. But there has been a lot going on so it is time for some hard facts without waiting till the 6th September.

[novicetrade68] 12/5/2022 00:11

Not all these gas contracts are fixed and are multiple areas. Oil production in addition should bring in at least $500m revenue this year - may be a lot more.

It's just remarkable this is still not trading now within a 5% margin of 233p for over five weeks now, so the tender offer really has resulted in managing to screw the small shareholder again (me included) with zero benefit at all - despite being on the register before Apr 6 and despite this huge, if not unbelievable $1.06bn gift from India.

[nigelpm] 11/5/2022 23:24

Cheers Gecko - feeling is mutual - we had some lively and fierce debates on Tesla from memory but always maintained a civil debate. That's the key. Disagree but be reasonable about it.

[geckotheglorious] 11/5/2022 22:00

Mate you are reasonable.
When it comes to the Oil patch there are few people whose opinions I will take on board.

Yours is at the the top , along with EE.
And various others, loglorry being one funnily enough.

:)

[nigelpm] 11/5/2022 21:57

I sometimes wonder as well Gecko - I guess ultimately I do care about trying to be as reasonable as possible.

[geckotheglorious] 11/5/2022 21:46

nigelpm
Post 7008
"No, definitely not a fail - as I noted at the time it would have been rather difficult to buyback almost a third of the register at market price (as it was back then)"

Sometimes I wonder why you bother responding to these stupoid fctwits tbh.
Admire your mental fortitude.

Tron 22 is a whinging troll. As are so many others.

None are as honest as Loglorry, in it for a turn.

Same drivel over on the Pharos board with the 24/7 whiners.

[nigelpm] 11/5/2022 20:28

Fair enough. I don't think equity e&p reflects anywhere close to current commodity prices but that's a personal view and one which disagreement is sure to occur. Well done for taking a few pence. I've managed similar also but still see this well underneath a sensible valuation. Time will tell . Appreciate your views.

[loglorry1] 11/5/2022 20:16

I didn't sell cos I was unhappy. I sold because I made a quick profit. Below 200p with the buy back support is a decent entry to scalp a few pence.

CNE have had mixed success. They probably thought locking in a fixed price for gas in Egypt was prudent but now after huge gas price rises that looks badly timed. Hindsight is wonderful. If gas prices had slumped they'd have looked like geniuses.

Personally I think there are better E&P names out there and anyway it's not a good point in the cycle to buy E&P.

[novicetrade68] 11/5/2022 19:32

Actually do hold here, prior and after the misleading tender resulting in nil benefit at all , so am not a wind-up merchant, hope it is not illegal to hold and await a share price then with a more fair P/E which hopefully takes into account their future royalties too - could be hundreds of millions if the oil price stays high.

[nigelpm] 11/5/2022 19:06

Best bet if you are unhappy is to sell like loglorry has done and move on - life's too short to wax lyrically on bulletin boards generally but particularly on ones you no longer have a financial interest in.

[novicetrade68] 11/5/2022 15:56

A £2.05 post-tender share price for over a month now effects in remaining share holder fleecing, if I were Cairn I would not be using such advisors again.

[oilinvestoral] 11/5/2022 15:53

Big failure IMHO! any open minded rational investor can see it as such! Buying a 3rd of the share capital was not part of the company's articles of association! No one wanted it and nobody asked for it (except for fat cat advisors and American bankers)! Not to see it as poor capital allocation at the time is one thing! But to still argue it's cause ex-post is just lunacy!

[nigelpm] 11/5/2022 15:47

No, definitely not a fail - as I noted at the time it would have been rather difficult to buyback almost a third of the register at market price (as it was back then)