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CNE Capricorn Energy Plc

1.00 (0.62%)
Last Updated: 09:02:08
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Capricorn Energy Plc LSE:CNE London Ordinary Share GB00BRJ7R218 ORD 735/143P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  1.00 0.62% 162.80 161.80 163.20 166.40 162.40 166.40 4,688 09:02:08
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs 228.9M -51M -0.5383 -3.02 154.24M
Capricorn Energy Plc is listed in the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CNE. The last closing price for Capricorn Energy was 161.80p. Over the last year, Capricorn Energy shares have traded in a share price range of 109.60p to 789.0616p.

Capricorn Energy currently has 94,743,291 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Capricorn Energy is £154.24 million. Capricorn Energy has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -3.02.

Capricorn Energy Share Discussion Threads

Showing 8901 to 8924 of 8925 messages
Chat Pages: 357  356  355  354  353  352  351  350  349  348  347  346  Older
despite todays revelation "Production in 2024 is guided in the range of 20-24,000 boepd, 48% of which is forecast to be liquids"!
Seems to have moved +50% in a month.
We seem to be hitting an uptrend. However I'm still sitting on a massive loss.
Oh well we'll see what the results deliver. I look forward to reading your forensic analysis at that time :)

Hi xxnjr, :)

Glad you looked in :)

I'm not sure what to make of today's announcement, it doesn't sound very encouraging at all, sounds like they have lots of unresolved issues still!

It's going to be really interesting to see in a month's time how much money they have actually received from the government of Egypt since September last year & how high the outstanding amount is compared to before, not to mention the overdue amount.

The only good thing happening (well assuming there isn't more bad news to come to knock the share price even more) is the fact the buy-back program has been able to buy-in a decent amount of stock each day recently.

Still nearly £4M to be spent which means there currently on course to have around 89.5M shares in issue when it completes - but even at the current rate of purchases that's mid to late June!

Market Cap is only just above that £100M mark.

Good Luck

last of the mohicans
Hi Last of the Mohicans,

Haven't looked in here for a while. Thanks for your continued analysis and running commentary. Walvis Bay was probably a tug refuelling stop + maybe a bit of R&R. BP's tug towed 'GTA FPSO' and 'Gimi' FLNG both stopped over at Walvis enroute for Senegal for hopefully a 3Q/24 start up which would be about 9 months late as pipelay vessel failed on that development.

CNE production as you say seems below previous guidance. Apache, or APA as they now call themselves, are no.1 onshore in Egypt (220K boepd gross) and their 4Q mentioned some constraints in availability of workover rigs in country to perform the recompletions/workovers required to mitigate decline.

Without more info from CNE it's difficult to say if decline is due to inherent reservoir issues or whether this is just a badly managed operation? Apache seem to be able to maintain their production fairly flat (on plateau) and have done so for years despite the in country headwinds.

I took some today - an amazing fall but if (big if) Egypt can get at least partially resolved there's huge value here and leveraged value.
Hi churchill2,

I hope you keep in touch :)

Did you ever look at IPEL ?

Hi Finkie,

From what I can gather there is hardly a PI left with shares in the company. I'm not sure what to make of it at all. I am in ways certainly tempted to buy some, but there are now 2 shorter's in the stock & another couple of companies I've bought recently with shorters in them haven't done well at all, so that's a real negative for me now & is making me very cautious about CNE especially when there is zero visibility.

The near 50,000 buyback yesterday was good to see :)


last of the mohicans
LOTM at 110p do you think a lot of this is in the news or has it become the basket case after distributing the india cash?
I sold out a couple of weeks ago. Not one of my best investments. The turning point was I saw a reference to Egypt needing to borrow 25 billion dollars over the next four years to survive. Anyway thanks for all your good work over recent months and good luck with what ever decisions you make.

Wow that was an awful auction for anyone still in the stock.

Hopefully the buy-back picked up at least 50,000 shares for the day with an average price of say £1.13

The 2 groups shorting the shares are sure raking in the £'s at the moment, the share price decline seems to have accelerated of late - no doubt in part because of them.

Market cap is down to virtually £100M now (a touch over £103 as it stands) who would have thought it.

So tempting to start picking up a few shares now at this price, but where is the sign of a bottom ? is £1 or less achievable/realistic ......


last of the mohicans
FPSO has now arrived at the Sangomar field.

So they will be able to start the process of anchoring it & then connecting all the cables & pipes etc to it.

Woodside's next report might be interesting for timelines, the end of April one certainly will be!


last of the mohicans
Hi churchill2

hmm I'm not sure I agree with you there, I think there is more than a 50% chance at this moment in time of them making the 30th of June date.

The FPSO has just come into range now & according to the marine traffic website is due in Dakar Offshore location on 10th Feb (its currently about to reach Guinea - Bissau)

As to Goldman's stake it jumps around all over the shop up & down like a yo-yo.

I see Citi & sold down there holding in the last few days, so maybe that's where all the shares are coming from.

Good Luck

PS if your looking for free money check out IPEL - but you need to do it quickly as it goes xd-dividend again next thursday


last of the mohicans
Thanks for the update. The share price is extremely depressing from the high hopes we had just a few months ago. Senegal is a non starter so the progress of the boat does not matter to shareholders in my opinion. Am I correct to assume Goldman are increasing their stake in Capricorn above fifteen per cent which seems odd considering the current situation. As I have said before Shell certainly saw us coming when they sold us this bag of worms.

The location of the boat does not really matter as Senegal is a non starter

FPSO hasn't been seen for 8 days now.

By going by the distance it moved from the 28th Jan to 31st Jan before moving out of range, it should be seen in the next 2 days off the coast of Sierra Leone. After that it should be about another 5 days until it gets to Senegal.

I'm not sure if the current political situation in Senegal is going to affect things regarding getting the field into production before the end of June.


Hopefully the buy-back program had a good day today, there was quite a lot of bot trades going through so hopefully they picked up 60,000+ at under £1.30

I'm watching things unfold but there is no temptation to start buying any shares yet, to many unanswered questions.

If it gets to under £1.15 I'll start to seriously consider it again.


last of the mohicans
I was thinking about the pre-close update over the weekend & actually its quite scary when you put 2 & 2 together.

You go back to the half year report from 14th September (which is just over 4 months ago) & back then they were forecasting production for the year at the bottom end of there previous range of 32-36,000 boepd exiting 2023 at over 34,000. Now this new guidance was a mark down of expectations.

Yet in the pre-close announcement, production came in at just 30,222 boepd for 2023 (roughly 2,000 boepd below the forecast in just 3 months timewise).

Further more the "Teen and Badr El Din (BED) LLP projects are now complete and beginning to ramp up" ( they were part of the reason they were forecasting the 34,000 exit rate that we ended up over 10% below)

Now even with those projects factored (and not reached peak production yet) in Capricorn are indicating that production for 2024 is likely to decline by 20 - 30%.

That's 20-30% on 30,222 boepd not the original range they expected but missed considerably & its also after taking into account "flush" production from the recently added wells.

Pretty scary stuff when you think about the company's future & how quickly production might fall in 2025 also & how they turn things around on the development side.

As I said not getting that November Presentation really does mean Shareholders are in the dark & not in a good way.

They have a lot of explaining to do.


last of the mohicans
FPSO started moving again about 07:00 GMT today Sunday 28/01 & is heading towards Senegal.


last of the mohicans
After reflecting overnight on the update, the biggest thing that is missing is an actual update on what was achieved in Egypt in 2023.

The postponement of the Egypt presentation at the end of November is in reality a major blow to investors, because we have no idea of what was achieved for the roughly $93M of Capex spent in Egypt in 2023.

There has been no drilling updates or detailed reports giving the licence name, the well, what was found, if so the flow test results & if its on production yet or not & one of the most important parts new reserve numbers

Yes there has been some snippets given to us, but not a real in depth insight into it all. Without that investors have no real idea if the money has been well spent or not.

From what I've read, it doesn't look like we've found that much in the way of new reserves. The more wildcat drilling side of things seems to have just turned up dry holes even with 3D seismic.

The only successes seem to have been step out wells from existing producing wells.

The long & short of it is this, if we don't have a baseline telling us what we have then its impossible to tell if we're actually making progress or not. Or if we are simply sending good money after bad & would be better off just producing what we've got (other than in-fill locations) & taking the money & running rather than spending it on Capex where we're losing it & getting no real return on it.


last of the mohicans
Looking at the actual numbers, comparing the end of Dec with end of Oct.

Amount outstanding from Egypt $173M compared to $170M end Oct with $139M overdue at that point.

$190M in cash & loan debt of $114M compared to $158M with loan debt of $113M in Oct. So that's a gain of $32M in cash but when you take into account the Waldorf payment of $48M it means a spend of $16M in just 2 months ! plus another $1M loan increase. The buy-back would account for roughly $2M of that $17M spend.

Also Capex is meant to be around $120M which is in the bottom half of the $117M - $127M range from October (there wasn't a published Capex spend number to the end of October).

Not as rosy a picture as you might think.


last of the mohicans
Hmm not the best of updates from Capricorn.

They are clearly trying to delay so many things to buy themselves time for hopefully the government to finally start paying off the massive arrears.

They deliberately didn't say how much of the $173M is overdue.

Looks like there trying not to pay-off the debt as quickly as would otherwise be the case, or the next payment & interest didn't arise until 1st Jan 2024.

As for the FPSO well it hasn't moved in 5 days now !

So either there is a problem with the vessel or they were ahead of schedule & are just passing time, not Capricorn's cost but the tugs with it will be costing a pretty penny every day to hire. So I'd have thought they would have wanted to get the journey done ASAP.


last of the mohicans
Could be a problem with the FPSO.

I wondered why it was hugging the coast after passing Cape Town & not going with the normal traffic flow up towards Senegal, (which it would have reached in just 1 week if it had carried on)

Its at Walvis Bay Anch Namibia !

Maybe its sheltering from a storm or problems with one of the tugs or its engine etc but it would appear to be an unexpected stop on the journey.

Hopefully it gets moving again soon as each passing day is vital for qualifying for that $25M or 50M payment or not at all.


last of the mohicans
Now 200 miles or so SSW of Cape Town.

Looks like it will arrive in Senegal before the end of the month.

Just as well it past Mauritius & Reunion islands when it did otherwise it could have got caught up in that typhoon & that could have caused major problems.


last of the mohicans
Its now south of Reunion, with possibly 3 tugs with it!

So not sure if its under its own steam (so to speak or not).

Looking at the route I'd say just past Madagascar is half way distance wise, so I think 1st week of Feb for arrival is on the mark.


last of the mohicans
Hi churchill2,

It has an engine for sure, looks on the latest map view to be accompanied by 1 tug/special craft. Its also listed as having Restricted Manoeuvrability

It is due south of Mauritius right now as I write, Reunion is next island it will pass on Sunday. Speed has slowed a little so it will be Wednesday by the looks of it to get to Madagascar.


last of the mohicans
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