Capital & Regional Share Discussion Threads

[b1lly bob] 01/9/2009 20:27

would say it's due to only 10 days till oo shares are placed @ 24p ,don't think it will drop as far .

[cyberbub] 01/9/2009 20:17

Anyone got any comments on today? Is it something to do with WICH?

[cyberbub] 31/8/2009 19:40

Yeah spec, I reckon around a quid is a realistic price especially if people keep buying commercial property plays in the coming weeks. Let's see.DYOR

[spec7] 30/8/2009 21:06

cyberbub
....lol...
well to be honest if anyone knew that they would probably be stinking rich !!
As for me ! , well if the financial recovery continues then i would think 100p would be possible.....but what anyone says, its got to be a complete guess.

[cyberbub] 30/8/2009 20:53

Seriously though, with a 6-month timescale where do people with experience of this sort of OO see the share price ending up? What is CAL really worth at the diluted price? Answers on a postcard.

[kibes] 30/8/2009 18:23

Spec7 - yes agree entirely, but there are a lot of chancers out there in my opinion. Just need to read the ADVFN message boards to see some of them!

[jeromeribot] 30/8/2009 12:45

The man from Investor's Chronicle, he say yes to the OO.

[lomax99] 30/8/2009 05:59

Time to double my holdings if it gets into that range, I reckon it will not close below 35p.

[wongman] 29/8/2009 22:58

At around 24-30p range, there will be a lot of p*ssed off investors. Basically rendering the OO pointless...

[kibes] 29/8/2009 17:34

das3/spec7 - yes you are right the market will work in favour of the big hitters. But even so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the price dragged down after 10th September, the purpose being to flush out weak small investors who will panic if they see their profit disappearing. Something in the range 24 - 30p would be quite possible in my opinion, after which it will go up again leaving those who sold cursing their bad luck. Its a cruel world I'm afraid.

[spec7] 28/8/2009 18:28

das3
Exactly.

[das3] 28/8/2009 18:18

Imo as with many announcements the big hitters in the market knew the terms of the OO in the hours/days before they were RNSed.

They worked out that with the future of CAL assured it was worth paying up to the 90s to be in on the offer.

So I don't think those who bought in at that level are going to lose money, and may well make some as Cyberbub suggests. Once the malaise has gone away, the shorters have moved on, and punters have sold their 'cheap' stock this valuation will be realised. Just will take a bit of time.

[cyberbub] 28/8/2009 12:39

I agree that there will clearly be great volatility on 10th and 11th September. We may see a big drop as people take a quick profit, but if it falls below 30p then IMO there will be a wave of buying taking it back up. I think PIs just need to make their decision on what these diluted shares are worth in the medium term, now that the company's survival seems assured. Personally I think somewhere around £1-1.20, so with 30000 shares coming my way at 24p I will be happy to ignore the volatility on 10th/11th and just hold to see what happens in the following week or two... Patience is the key to big returns!

DYOR

[spec7] 28/8/2009 12:19

wongman

MM's don't gamble the markets. There are thousands of stocks, just imagine if they were trying to build up and lose stocks in all those companies on an hourly basis. They accumulate stock when they are caught out with it, give you that but they are "market makers" they make a market and living by profiting between the buy and sell price.
Do you really think an MM will be piling up stock at 40p today because people might want it in a week.??? chances are a lot of people will take a profit on there 25p shares and sell at 30p or 35p.....and the MM's are sitting on a load they brought at 40p-45p ....Its just not the way they play the game.

[davius] 28/8/2009 10:37

Wrongman, when the MMs need stock they drop the price, if they can. But I would imagine that as of the 10th September there may be plenty of stock about so they'd have little reason to move it down.

Take a look at PXS today. I suspect that the MMs were aware of the imminent "we know of no reason for the rise" RNS and pushed the price ever higher causing a buying frenzy, before tanking it, buying back all the shares they'd sold at higher prices as punters panicked to sell. And it was very hard to sell, impossible for most without phoning their broker, no doubt until the share price was at a level significantly below the average price the MMs had been selling at on the way up. It's how they work. It's daylight robbery. And it's legal. But I'm probably teaching grandma etc etc.

[hungry wolf] 28/8/2009 08:16

they can also crash the price and panic holders. Am waiting.

[wongman] 28/8/2009 07:38

So what do you think the MM's are doing now before the 10th of september? Surely if it opens low on that day, then MM's will need a lot of stock, and the only way to get that stock right now is to try and get us to sell it by raising the share price I don't see a rise atm.

[davius] 28/8/2009 07:30

> mm's don't accumulate shares.

So wrong I'm afraid. There's plenty of info about how they manipulate the market to their own ends. They carry out their own P&D on a regular basis, usually raising or droping an share price rapidly to get punters buying/selling as they require. A classic scenario is to drop a price, and continue dropping it as stop losses are hit. All the while they are buying shares. Then they raise the price to above their average buy in, and keep it going whilst all those that sold think they've missed the boat and start buying back in.

Do a web search on market maker tactics, you'll find that they are so often very long or very short on stock, depending on where they plan to move the share price.

[spec7] 28/8/2009 06:32

mm's don't accumulate shares. They make their money by trading the real time markets.,they don't gamble the markets like us.

[wongman] 27/8/2009 22:39

If it opens low, e.g late 20s...then the demand for the shares will go shooting up, cheap shares- who wouldn't want to buy them. If it opens high, e.g. 40p, then there will be a lot of profit taking, then a likely fall.

however, I don't think it will open up low as currently, I don't think the mms are accumulating shares at all due to the lack of price rise.

what do people think or am i completely wong?

TIA

[cyberbub] 27/8/2009 20:58

Where is everyone? Just waiting for 10th Sept?

[cyberbub] 27/8/2009 16:57

Seems to be support at 40p hopefully.

[typo56] 26/8/2009 12:44

Cyberbub, thought I'd check as the CGT rules have changed recently. It certainly used to be that shares taken up in a rights issue were deemed to have been acquired on the same date as the qualifying holding. However, that is not so important now that taper relief has been abolished.

Here's a useful link which explains the current rules:

[cyberbub] 26/8/2009 11:12

What a nice thought Garbut :-) You mean non-holders quick off the mark last Friday who shorted the share price seconds after the RNS re. placing?

Let's see what happens - I have now confirmed that I am going to buy the shares so will be on September TENTHerhooks....

DYOR