Capital & Regional Share Discussion Threads

[fastbaz] 24/8/2009 10:45

Cyberbub, read it in the rns - will re-check it now and paste.

[fastbaz] 24/8/2009 10:43

Davius,

Re share price - you are completely ignoring the Parkdev shares in your calc, being 24p+24p+98p /3 = 48p - the market does not differentiate between the diff holdings - each share rank parisu regardless of whether held by pi's Parkdev or whoever, and these shares in issue affect the overall share price MV of share price is ~40p - see previous posts, and as follows:

pre rns 71.35m shares at 98p (value £69.923m)
pi's etc 190.3m shares at 24p (value £45.7m)
Parkdev 89.0 shares at 26.4p (value £23.5m)
TOTAL 350.65m shares at 39.68p (value £139.123m)

[cyberbub] 24/8/2009 10:40

fastbaz, where does it say that the 50m shares holders are locked in?

[esanlfc] 24/8/2009 10:31

yep davius my first target is 49p as thats the price i need to get the profit back that i had on wed evening - still as you say it seems to be holding up quite well (so far)

[fastbaz] 24/8/2009 10:31

Kibes,
The holders of the other 50m shares are locked in for 365 days - so there will be no bulk shifting of these short term which will support the share price - 365 days from 10th Sept could be a diff matter though!

[davius] 24/8/2009 10:29

Kibes, afraid I have to disagree with you there.

The closing share price was 98p the day before the placing/rights issue. For RI investors the effective break even price including the 24p shares is 48p, the share price is currently well below this. Anyone lacking the funds to buy the RI shares will already have sold (or be in the process of selling) their shares.

The placing shares will go to institutions who will be buying in as a longer term investment (and often a 'hold for X-months' agreement is included). And no doubt Parkdev (with their 25% stake) will be here for some time to come.

I just can't see any big sell off, it's already happened.

[boobly] 24/8/2009 09:51

Nice little Buy BOT ticking away this morning......

[boobly] 24/8/2009 09:28

Some very strange behaviour in this stock over the last few weeks .
No holdings RNS , so far .
I held my stock , I`ll be taking up my rights .

[jenny tulwought] 24/8/2009 09:27

Didn't expect this to be up this morning - relieved to be wrong.

[lol short killer] 24/8/2009 09:22

No market is in a strong form efficient. We are in a semi-strong one: the information is reflected into the share price rapidly. lol

[warmsun] 24/8/2009 09:18

Precisely Typo

[typo56] 24/8/2009 09:11

Markets aren't efficient, which is how traders make money. If the market was efficient CAL wouldn't have opened at 82p on Thursday!

[kibes] 24/8/2009 09:07

das3 - the concern is that 190 million new shares are going to be issued in the open offer of which only 140 million can be purchased by shareholders. Therefore, 50 million shares are going to be sold at 24p to non-shareholders who may only be interested in making a fast buck. These people will probably hold while the price is good but will sell immediately on any weakness to lock in their profit. Once these people are out the price will recover, however 50 million shares is a lot to shift.

[lol short killer] 24/8/2009 09:05

Someone here needs to learn something regarding Efficient Market theory. lol

[typo56] 24/8/2009 08:55

I agree das3, share prices adjust in advance to what is known to be coming. If anything I think CAL will rise from here.

Of course, going ex is another matter where the price has to adjust downwards as the shares are no longer trading cum-entitlement.

[lol short killer] 24/8/2009 08:52

You are welcome to filter me. lol

[ciderboy] 24/8/2009 08:50

how do filter wongman.

[wongman] 24/8/2009 08:48

how do you filter "lol short killer"

[das3] 24/8/2009 08:48

Imo the introduction of the new shares on the 10th Sept will have zero effect on the share price

The market adjusted to the post OO situation over the 24 hours following the RNS.

That said the share price will tend to be depressed at the mo as those who are wary of putting more capital in will be selling to fund the OO (tail swallowing).
Traders who believe that the share has now become 'boring' or 'safe' will also be tending to sell up. Shorters will also be playing a part.

Against this background it is quite encouraging the share price is up to-day!

So far the pattern is very similar to that of the TW. offer a few months ago. After the new shares came on stream was a good time to buy.

[lol short killer] 24/8/2009 08:45

This is a time to buy CAL, not for sell. I added 5k at 40p this morning. DYOR ;)

[lol short killer] 24/8/2009 08:37

40p is a solid floor for CAL. Below 40p will attract lots of buys. CAL back to 70p level in the next 2-3 weeks. DYOR. lol

[lol short killer] 24/8/2009 08:36

OTE is up 30%+ today. lol

[l2e] 24/8/2009 08:24

I am out for now, my fault messed up with my figs . too much uncertainty for me with where this share price will reside when those 24 ps are in play.
Good luck to the long termers though

[cyberbub] 24/8/2009 08:19

The share price is still holding up though isn't it. I would have thought that anyone selling (shorting) their entitlement at this price would have done so by now? So the share price should hold up at 40p or so on 10th Sept?

[typo56] 24/8/2009 08:18

Not really a yes. I was just assuming that those people who wanted to sell their allocation whould have done so when they could get a great price of 60p or more. However I forget that most holders probably aren't at their screen trading all day and might not have been aware of the open offer until they finished work on Thursday. The timing of the announcement was poor, leaving it to 07:40am.

I don't regard selling short your allocation ahead of receiving the offer shares as unethical. Holders with nominee accounts are often frustrated by slack brokers who don't process corporate actions in a timely manner, thus putting their clients at a disadvantage.