Capital & Regional Share Chat (CAL)

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Type	Share ISIN	Share Description
Capital & Regional Plc	LSE:CAL	London	Ordinary Share	GB0001741544	ORD 1P

	Price Change	% Change	Share Price	Bid Price	Offer Price	High Price	Low Price	Open Price	Shares Traded	Last Trade
	-0.02p	-0.13%	14.80p	14.80p	14.92p	15.04p	14.70p	14.80p	3,228,784	16:29:56

Industry Sector	Turnover (m)	Profit (m)	EPS - Basic	PE Ratio	Market Cap (m)
Real Estate Investment & Services	91.0	-25.5	-3.5	-	103.95

Capital & Regional Share Discussion Threads

Showing 2601 to 2625 of 2625 messages

Chat Pages: 105 104 103 102 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 Older

Date	Subject	Author	Discuss
13/6/2019 06:52	Why? It's going c.10p lower than that IMO. It's either a buy here (because it will survive) or my view on the covenants is accurate. Silence from the co, and where are all the huge director buys?	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
12/6/2019 20:53	Will buy at below 10p	zccax77	Read Full Thread Reply
07/6/2019 14:28	Now dropped 10p since I first posted on here about 6 weeks ago Not short, certainly not claiming any credit for the fall, but - CAL is likely going to 1p IMO.	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
04/6/2019 08:12	Covenants are in danger because NAV is tanking, and will continue to tank, unless we've reached "peak online".	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
03/6/2019 12:13	Id be more convinced that the convenants were in danger if the footfall was going down! But its not, its still rising strongly as of last results. If the footfall remains strong you'd think they can maintain rents and replace the likes of DEBS who aren't actually closing in the CAL centres but are reducing rents (CVAs).	hugepants	Read Full Thread Reply
01/6/2019 10:23	CEO buying? At such a 'low' market cap where are the CEO's share purchases? This says all you need to know imho. Downward rent reviews coming soon, Boots store closures, Top Shop too, alongside M&S and DEB.... bank covenants edging close to breach. Too much debt here but the bond holders will take control before shareholders get a sniff. Better risk/ reward plays out there and juicy dividends too : DGOC, FRES, SIA All imho. The trend is your friend.	swindon41	Read Full Thread Reply
30/5/2019 18:57	Those yields look too low, should be atleast 9%+. Do you think they can get bank finance? who would lend them any money?	zccax77	Read Full Thread Reply
30/5/2019 09:13	Much as I hate to link The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/05/scottish-shopping-centre-sold-price-postings-kirkaldy This was the "shopping centre for £1" that attracted a lot of press - actually sold for £310k+legals, fees, stamp. Great - except it now soaks up c.£200k a year in empty rates, and originally cost £4.25m to build - in 1981! Sums up the way the market is going, albeit it's the lowest of the low. Anchor tenants are the key - this one lost its Tesco - and things like the once reliable TopShop are starting to disappear. Incidentally, local authorities are often buyers of dilapidated shopping centres, using the govnt loan scheme. This is where NRR is looking to make money as an advisor.	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
30/5/2019 07:39	It's not that Aberdeen Standard need the money either !! hxxps://www.vectorstock.com/royalty-free-vector/comic-book-style-cartoon-red-flag-vector-24081470	hillofwad	Read Full Thread Reply
30/5/2019 07:27	Wait till INTU's start coming on the block......	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
30/5/2019 07:26	Spec Maybe sooner than we think Take a butchers at this !!! hxxps://www.propertyweek.com/news/alteris-agrees-uk-malls-deal/5102926.article Aberdeen Standard close to selling two shopping centres in Crawley and Newbury to Alteris fund for £140m (8.5-9% yields) having paid £190m for former in 2004 and £120m for latter in 2011. Anglo-German buyer yet to secure debt finance.	hillofwad	Read Full Thread Reply
30/5/2019 06:44	Agreed @hillofwad - IMO CAL's two years away from breaching 70% LTV ceiling. That divi cut probably wasn't deep enough.	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
30/5/2019 05:14	The last valuation showed an overall yield of 6.23% on the portfolio reflecting a loan to value of 48% This valuation is likely to be revisited again for a further haircut. Mix in a fall in rental income the company is listing badly towards LTV breaches Catch - 22. Any potential sales to reduce indebtedess are likely to attract lowball offers in today's market With retail CVAa happening weekly this has the smell of deep decay	hillofwad	Read Full Thread Reply
28/5/2019 12:22	I think Woodford's selling will send NRR lower, but they're are a developer & pubco really. The "buying more shopping centres" is more the new JV/management side. Their rents are super-low and with Co-ops, the occasional Lidl, & resi, they seem to sweat things well. I fancy the ones who do the buying to ultimately do well, and the ones stuck with tired legacy stuff on high rents to do badly (CAL, INTU, HMSO for eg). But - takes two to make a market! If I'm wrong, CAL could be a bargain. But I think there's a lot more downside to come on the CAL/INTU stuff, & for reasons above IMO CAL at high risk of going to zero. Is possible I'm wanting to have my cake & eat it - I have some BLND for eg. Edit: NRR: "NewRiver REIT plc ('NewRiver') is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust specialising in buying, managing, developing and recycling convenience-led, community-focused retail and leisure assets throughout the UK. Our GBP1.3 billion portfolio covers over 9 million sq ft and comprises 34 community shopping centres, 19 conveniently located retail parks and over 650 community pubs. Having hand-picked our assets since NewRiver was founded in 2009, we have deliberately focused on the fastest growing and most sustainable sub-sectors of the UK retail market, with grocery, convenience stores, value clothing, health & beauty and discounters forming the core of our retail portfolio. This focus, combined with our affordable rents and desirable locations, delivers sustainable and growing returns for our shareholders, while our active approach to asset management and inbuilt 1.9 million sq ft development pipeline provide further opportunities to extract value from our portfolio. " As compared to CAL: "Capital & Regional is a UK focused retail property REIT specialising in shopping centres that dominate their catchment, serving the non-discretionary and value orientated needs of their local communities. It has a strong track record of delivering value enhancing retail and leisure asset management opportunities across a c.GBP0.9 billion portfolio of tailored in-town shopping centres. Capital & Regional is listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange and has a secondary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Capital & Regional owns seven shopping centres in Blackburn, Hemel Hempstead, Ilford, Luton, Maidstone, Walthamstow and Wood Green. Capital & Regional manages these assets through its in-house expert property and asset management platform. " So there's overlap in what CAL have and claim (minus 650 pubs of course), yet NRR's is "bought cheap", rented cheap, tertiary stuff, and CAL's are a series of secondary-located old-style shopping centres. Or - NRR is B&M, convenience stores, pubs, CAL is TopShop/Debenhams. Happy to hear dissenting views, as always :)	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
28/5/2019 11:58	Spec, I sold out of NRR this morning! They're actually buying more shopping centres and it looks overvalued on several metrics compared to the peer group. No idea why they are maintaining the dividend. They seem to have convinced themselves that the downturn in bricks and mortar retailing does not apply to them.	hugepants	Read Full Thread Reply
28/5/2019 11:38	@HP - that must be why the shares are trading at 18p! Fill your boots surely? I'll stick with NRR :)	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
28/5/2019 11:03	Like for like footfall in CAL's community shopping centres is impressive, way about the national average. Compare with NRR which is the worst performer I can find for like for like footfall of the shopping centre reits. The write-downs in the portfolio valuations are not based on the last results obviously (which were good) but on future expectations. So it may be wishful thinking expecting further significant valuation reductions and convenants to be breached.	hugepants	Read Full Thread Reply
22/5/2019 20:22	More good news!!! Topman and Top shop closing in Luton More deterioration with covenant breaches hoving into view on the horizon	hillofwad	Read Full Thread Reply
22/5/2019 14:29	@HP - they cut the divi, and the issue is one of legacy assets - the shopping centre winners will be those who buy dirt cheap from distressed sellers IMO, and can then spend the money re-orientating them (eg NRR). The more that go bust, the lower the valuations, and the sooner CAL is owned by its debt holders - IMO. @hillofwad - I'd be inclined to agree on WHR (and it had Woodford involved, a red flag) except that they did fairly well on the Hansteen purchase, and eg: hTTps://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/now-warehouse-reit-bags-bargains-from-open-end-funds/a1231502	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
22/5/2019 13:59	The more shopping centres that go bust surely its better for the stronger shopping centre REITS. Is CAL one of the stronger ones? Probably not but things cant be that bad if they are continuing to pay a chunky dividend.	hugepants	Read Full Thread Reply
22/5/2019 13:41	Whoops !!! hxxps://www.propertyweek.com/finance/trio-of-oaktree-shopping-centres-breach-debt-covenants/5102820.article	hillofwad	Read Full Thread Reply
22/5/2019 11:58	Specto Yes quite like the hotchpotch of investments in the AW portfolios Although some of the meatier industrials with high site densities might be a concern if voids result .risks reflected in the yields ,mind Lukewarm about WHR arrived in the cycle a bit late just buying up dry stock at low yields The fact that they bought from Hansteen Just felt they jumped on a bandwagon maanged to raise some capital and hoovered up what was available without too much discrimination.Having said that crinkly tin the place to be	hillofwad	Read Full Thread Reply
22/5/2019 07:58	It's the binary nature of it - if asset write-downs continue, and everyone thinks they will - CAL looks unlikely to survive IMO. Or rather - it'll be owned by the debt holders. Nothing management is doing makes me think that won't be the case. Should add I find myself in loads of smaller REITs - eg WHR, SHED, AEWU, AEWL, NRR - all with good management and mostly tilted to industrial, ie a sector where rents & capital values are on the rise, giving the exact opposite effect to what's going on at CAL. BLND the only one I've got that's similar, and is safe in size/spread (ie not going bust - may yet go lower!). NRR the outlier since it's seemingly becoming more a pub company, but NRR buys cheap - isn't a bunch of legacy tired assets. Of course, if a bad enough recession comes along, industrial can easily go the same way as retail - but retail is structural and is doing it without even a downturn. There's also much lower LTVs in many of the above, although I admit I don't know their headroom like I do for CAL. Whilst asset prices are rising (or stable at worst), it's less relevant.	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply
22/5/2019 07:36	Thanks Specto for your detailed reply. I don't hold these I can see the logic both ways. They seem to have maintained a decent level of occupancy and income but of course they are vulnerable to asset write downs.	rcturner2	Read Full Thread Reply
21/5/2019 16:30	@RCT - yes, for the simple reason that their max LTV (from what I remember) is 70%. Hence the BLND point above - BLND retail NAV drop was 11% but for Dept Stores it was 30%. In 12 months! So the issue isn't CAL's current LTV, or interest rate, or their debt maturity - it's that the assets are depreciating so fast they'll likely (IMO) breach bank covs in the next few years. I only see things getting worse with the rent drops, IVAs, domino effect (lose TopShop as your anchor tenant, and what are you left with?), and potential of forced sellers (INTU & HMSO spring to mind) depressing prices still further - and making it very hard to flog assets to raise emergency cash. And very little money to spend on maintenance, let alone complete renovations, with the trajectory of the LTV. It may take longer than I expect, or the High St (or rather, shopping centres) may make a Lazarus-like recovery, but you've got to be in the right assets in this market, with the right management - CAL seem to have neither. Legacy assets, dreadful management (IMO). CAL aren't alone, but seem particularly heinous in their denial of the situation. More clued up and they could have raised money higher & bought some time. I'd say the market agrees with me, but there'd be good money to be made if I was wrong. High St etc isn't dead, but it's changing way beyond anything CAL and their rents can cope with. (LTV - say 100 in assets, 48 in debt. Depreciate the assets 30% & LTV becomes 68.5%. Not hard to see eg a 15% drop for each of next two years. If your rent gets halved by an IVA, what's your asset now worth? What about all the similar assets, when they're next up for renting?). (What would change my mind? Them successfully raising money (perhaps via a trade sale), or some serious director buying (seen zilch, for ages, except scrip divi), or a complete change of management, or some sign that tired old shopping centres in secondary locations are making a comeback). hxxps://capreg.com/our-portfolio/	spectoacc	Read Full Thread Reply

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