Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 09/11/2020 13:17

Some use these bb as a groupie chat group to praise BUR and it's management and curse anyone who suggests anything other - or who sold out when MW attacked As the old saying goes - never fall in love with a stock

[time_traveller] 09/11/2020 13:04

And just to annoy Maddox - BUR - my bottom marker, by a friggin mile! (Edit, actually probably not, because I'll be amongst his 80% filterees for having had the temerity to suggest the share price might go down last year, albeit no such concerns nowadays)

[maddox] 09/11/2020 09:47

Some posters seem to think this BB is some sort of support group where they can express their anxiety and angst, externalising their frustrations, disappointments and inadequacies. No doubt it's cheaper than therapy. For the rest of us - we have the filer functionality.

[stoxx67] 08/11/2020 13:39

interesting, many thanks WC104

[williamcooper104] 08/11/2020 13:20

Rate of return is extremely ambitious - yes it's conservative relative to history but you would expect large capital inflows into the sector going forward to depress returns - that may not happen but it's what the market would assume The more accurate way of doing it would be DCF which would capture covid gravy

[williamcooper104] 08/11/2020 13:17

Agreed - Muddy waters is history now You'd need to sketch out a 5 year cashflow and then make a terminal value But crudely let's say on ,current NAV BUR can do 25 percent (or c17 percent unleveraged/return on invested capital) Assume that 15-20 percent is the right level of return required by equity Then you get a premium to NAV of 25-60 percent - so that ought to get you to £8-12 ad a range Arguably 15-20 is too high as a cost of equity (it probably is) but equally 25 percent as a perpetual

[stoxx67] 08/11/2020 06:48

just out of interest WC104

what do you perceive fair value ? to my mind we should not still be plumbing the depths and as no. 1 in sector we should be on a reasonable rating now MW has finally been shot down once and for all (with the US listing and the related forensic inspection of all things Burford, we now know absolutely nothing was valid from MW)

cheers

[williamcooper104] 08/11/2020 00:39

Absent MW Bur wouldn't have crashed so quickly and may not have gone down to c60p of NAV (though with Woodford/Invesco liquidation it was always going to take a big hit) but no way it would be £30 - it was drifting down well before MW and that would have continued to do so - it was also with poor corporate governance a sitting target - most of what MW said was wrong/exaggerated - but Bur was overvalued (and raising equity at £18.50 was what you should do when overvalued) You can only get to £30 if you apply a regular earnings PE multiple to Peterson profits - which were in no way ordinary operating profits - they were exceptional gains - and should have been pro-forma adjusted accordingly

[bogman1] 07/11/2020 21:44

Getting rich slow ain't we. For me should it drop a few percent I will be happy to add and bring my average down further. But it's the long long game I am in. I think prospects over the next 5-10 yr are excellent

[gettingrichslow] 07/11/2020 19:52

It is fairly weird in my opinion that the share price now is lower than it was in the months immediately after the MW attack. At that time there was all sorts of allegations still to be fully refuted and disproven, and there was no US listing. Yet here we are 14 months later, and the share price is still lower than it was then.

[bogman1] 07/11/2020 19:18

Market leader, making a sh*tload. The results are there, the trend is definitely upward

[syoun2] 07/11/2020 18:30

It’s all about results, need more positive new history

[syoun2] 07/11/2020 18:29

I’ll be getting close to drawing a pension by 2027. Pension investing is different from individual share investing or trading. Three years ahead fine.

[rar100] 07/11/2020 18:24

I'll only sell if it makes sense to do so, or if I need the cash to move, I invested with BUR naively thinking it would continue past £20 to £30 and had an exit point about now. If it were not for MW what would the share price be now? My guess £30+

MW was and still is a disaster

Lets see some PR - BUR help's the good people win against the bad people to middle America lets see them do something to educate.

[williamcooper104] 07/11/2020 18:19

Again - you are now in at current share price What you paid is history

[williamcooper104] 07/11/2020 18:17

Agree with that It will get there - anything that can grow at 20-30 percent will double/triple in a few years and then trade at a premium after doing that so could be 3-4x - big Peterson win will add another 2-3x - a Peterson loss would be a good opportunity to add Remember it took about 3-4 years after the credit crunch before the big litigations started bearing fruit - so covid wins likely to hit in 2024-27 Unless we got a robin hood bid I never expected the US listing to bring the share price back to £20 - it's going to be a longer hall

[syoun2] 07/11/2020 17:53

Similar but unfortunately my average down from 14 to 10

[bogman1] 07/11/2020 17:44

Totally agree stoxx, still making good profits throughout this period as well, so will catch up, it's just a waiting game from now, my first was at 13 but have managed to average down now to 9.5

[stoxx67] 07/11/2020 14:29

WC104

i would certainly like to think, given time, that Burford ,may attain the dizzy heights of £15 per share again, once the muddy waters have cleared (Apologies , couldn't resist)

as you allude to, Burford now have a deeper , more appreciative market, eventually, in the US

must admit i'm staying with Burford for the next 5 Years, just do not see how they cant make a shed load of profit to come from COVID issues and many other matters.

[williamcooper104] 07/11/2020 14:15

A better way to look at it is to totally forget the £13 you bought in at You've lost that money - it's not coming back Rebase the holding in your mind and then think if you want to hold it or sell and invest elsewhere

[williamcooper104] 07/11/2020 14:13

Anyone looked OBL (IMF Bentham new ticker post merger) still ASX listed - looks to be trading on tiny premium to NAV They are suing EY and as I've a few friends who are partners there I'm going to buy some just for the sport of it Couldn't buy them before on HL - but can on IB Want to pull together an analysis of both - if I get time to do so

[williamcooper104] 07/11/2020 14:11

You are confusing the share price with the company If we see NAV growing each year by 20-30 percent then we have a total star - last results pointed in that direction Over time share price will catch up It would be good to see Bur trade at a reasonable premium to NAV - and yep they could do more with raising awareness in the US - there's a huge and much deeper retail market than over here

[rar100] 07/11/2020 13:55

3 daft crows

You talk horse sh*t, The shares/funds/trusts I like are consistently going up in share price terms. I know BUR's 'income' is lumpy - that's not the point now, the US listing has been a flop, it ain't a good start and mainly due to the investors not knowing about it - period!

[rar100] 07/11/2020 13:46

trader,

Yep, if you bought from the start then you are certainly quids in, i started buying at about 8.50 to 9, then bought more whenever i could, some at 16 - quite a few, so when MW crashed it from 20 odd to 3 odd, not great and from then to now its from 3 to about 7 and the 6 to 7 has just stayed in that range, i need approx 13 to break even. So it's gone from a star to a to a dog.

[tradertrev] 07/11/2020 13:17

rar, when you say this is your 2nd worst share ever and it's been pathetic for a long term holder, I'd love to know what else you own that has done better than 100->690 in 11 years with some dividends on top. That's a compound rate of over 19%pa, which I must say I am quite pleased with.