Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[scubadiverr] 23/11/2020 09:06

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tatiana-akhmedovas-son-accused-of-foul-play-in-453m-divorce-lwdm9fdrz

[syoun2] 23/11/2020 08:17

Can anyone remember the discovery timetable for Peterson ? Doesn’t it start soon?

[donald pond] 23/11/2020 07:22

I thought the piece itself was positive, albeit some of the responses were sceptical. I think the sector is massively misunderstood because people cannot understand asymmetric gains. Even something like Petersen, which from memory we acquired for around 15m and have already sold bits of for around 200-300m. What people don't get is that if you are a business with a claim like that, selling for 15m isn't a bad deal. The alternative is having management time spent on litigation for years, clogging board meetings, constantly draining cost and putting uncertainty over your results. Litigation funders are effectively paid to assume that uncertainty, in return for potentially unbelievable upside, and then people complain about the valuation of their assets on the basis that it's uncertain. Well, that's the point.

[warno01] 22/11/2020 23:50

Scubadiverr - LIT in UK already. Moving HQ there. Must bigger than RBGP. Manolete has been soaring despite being much smaller than Burford. Different accounting practices

[scubadiverr] 22/11/2020 23:23

I may have misunderstood you. I hold Mano so hope that others soon do report similar metrics. Who else is in this space other than RBGP (in their infancy) and LIT? (only Australia at the mo is my understanding)

[scubadiverr] 22/11/2020 23:19

Have you read the full piece? They are very sceptical!

[mad foetus] 22/11/2020 20:37

This is well worth a read about Manolete. As others in the sector report the same sort of returns scepticism may decrease https://twitter.com/maynardpaton/status/1330494405074161668?s=21

[williamcooper104] 21/11/2020 18:49

I would rather they spun of their cases into listed fixed life cells (with one on its own for Peterson) that way you would have the choice of buying the claims or buying the management/fund platform/growth

[tradertrev] 21/11/2020 18:22

Burford management has in the past set out a view that its greater transparency through being publicly listed has provided them a significant competitive advantage. I'd be extremely surprised if they took the PE shilling and went "dark".

[williamcooper104] 21/11/2020 13:44

It's 100 percent a people business So a PE outfit would just offer to more greatly enrich management - hence why I'm in favour of management making a ton of money (so long as is of actual cash not P&L) The large PE shops are really now just multi-strategy asset managers these days so they would put a huge value on Burs management platform as a springboard to getting more Assets under Management (and they will have noticed the attractive promote arrangements Burs funds have - which are better than typical PE 20 over 8 structures)The downside for Bur is that the larger PE houses might have conflicts that could limit what Bur can do

[williamcooper104] 21/11/2020 13:38

The limit on the arb should be the spreads No stamp duty, low dealing costs Uk, free dealing in US So if the difference is more than bid ask then has to be an arbitrage Wondering what's best way to exploit that/anything missing in that analysis

[lazg] 21/11/2020 13:36

@ Dj: while I do think this is possible, Burford is essentially a peoples business. You can't easily buy 100% of a peoples business.

And while they could take ot private its unlikely as they have just invested in an public offering.

Sometimes its a tactic to pretend to go public to get a better asking price. But going through with going public to then go private is rarely seen, as it just burns a lot of money.

[djderry] 21/11/2020 13:03

I continue to fret about the company's decimated/moribund share price.Not because of its price per se,as you know ,the share price tells one nothing about the company's actual performance.Rather,because I think it makes Burford a sitting duck for an opportunistic bid.I've said it before,I believe that , particularly,private equity will look at the mouth watering metrics,ROIC and IRR.Then,the launch on the NYSE and the regulatory scrutiny that the company passed with flying colours,as we all knew it would.I believe the company is extremely vunerable.Personally,I have no problem with a decimated share price,as long as I know I can enjoy the rewards as the company continues to execute its strategy.In simple terms,we have a $4 billion dollar portfolio on a roughly 50% discount to original investment.And the future returns on these investments will be multiples of that,even on a conservative estimate.I will start to become more comfortable with the share price at the £15 to £16 level.The company would still not be out of the woods at that stage but ,at least,might be a slightly more indigestible morsel.

[williamcooper104] 21/11/2020 11:46

I sold my US and bought the lower valued GBP

[stoxx67] 21/11/2020 08:10

WC104

You still holding BUR as $ denominated in IB?

why the large disparity between BUR$ and BUR£

traded equivalent of £7.95 in US during UK hours.

3% diff

[clyde13] 21/11/2020 07:34

They did a trading update on February 2nd this year for the year ended 31/12/19 so not expecting anything from the company till then.

[lawdawg759] 20/11/2020 18:58

Anyone know when BUR's next financial report will be released?

[maddox] 20/11/2020 16:26

Yes, and the inherent lumpiness of case realisations, both timing and quantum, will probably more than outweigh currency variations in any reporting period.

[williamcooper104] 20/11/2020 11:53

Agree with all that We are long chaos Currency is a huge issue for my real estate exposures - hence why I've margined my dollar holdings But it's less of an issue with Bur - as the volatility of Bur and growth trajectory outweighs the impact of currency movements

[maddox] 20/11/2020 11:33

There is an fx consideration to factor in. An EU Deal is thought to trigger a strengthening of £Stg - which will hit profit translation. A No-Deal will probably cause further weakening. on balance BUR is probably a hedge against a No-Deal outcome.

Also, the business is likely to benefit from business dislocation and contract failures in event of a No-Deal.

My thoughts - comments?

[tradertrev] 20/11/2020 08:19

Brexit - Chris Bogart said quite some time ago (around the time of the referendum, I think) that it is definitively not a negative for their business and might be a positive.

[williamcooper104] 20/11/2020 07:23

Bit of an upside to extent that a hard/harder brexit likely to tank sterling as Bur more exposed to dollars which will be worth more to U.K. holders

[williamcooper104] 20/11/2020 07:22

IB charge you for live prices - hence why useful to have more than one account Thanks for that - I only use IG occasionally (used to more for spread betting) - will check for live US prices (HL have started doing that too for free)

[donald pond] 20/11/2020 06:58

I struggle to think of a company less exposed to Brexit risk. Litigation all happens nationally, and so other than the small chance of an increase in disputes if things get delayed and so contracts are frustrated, I can't see any "side", either up or down, to Brexit for BUR.