Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[soultrading] 09/8/2019 07:57

Well done all who made or are making profit.

[nigelmoat] 09/8/2019 07:56

Would just love to know what MW and associates have coined in on this. And not just this week but over a period of hatching.

[gettingrichslow] 09/8/2019 07:56

Remember they spent 54 minutes with their counsel on Wednesday morning, missing their own 8am stated release time, so they must have been fairly unsure even at that time about what they were about to say!!

[tsmith2] 09/8/2019 07:55

Yes, very surprised by speed. I was thinking more like Today or Monday to give some prep. Clearly not needed and you can see why in the rebuttal

[showme01] 09/8/2019 07:55

I'd expect short positions to start closing out too as the buying demand should increase today adding to even more demand as the shorts close. Should finish over £10 today imo and then onwards next week. I have been day trading this over the last few days but holding onto what I have now for a week or two.

[molatovkid] 09/8/2019 07:55

What should happen, is that the minute one of these dirt reports is released, a share is immediately suspended. That would limit shorting opportunities and give the company in question the right to reply.

[onjohn] 09/8/2019 07:55

profits up 40% , leadership in growth sector, recession proof. What not to like

[sbb1x] 09/8/2019 07:54

That buy note is very interesting 2400

[onjohn] 09/8/2019 07:54

muddy puddle

[mad foetus] 09/8/2019 07:53

I posted this elsewhere but it came out better than expected so I'll put it here as well:
Fully agree it won't get back to £15 quickly. But, its last figures showed profits up 40%. I really don't think cash is an issue, they simply re-invest it as soon as it comes back. Sentiment may well be damaged, and yet, it may accelerate a few things, most importantly a US listing. I think BUR may well come back dramatically.
I have personal experience of a bank being sued by a trust client for around £100m. It was a complex case, she was suing her family and the bank together, and took 5 years from start to finish, with multiple court hearings: probably 20-30 different hearings in total and a 50 day trial at the end. She bought the case because she had been cut out of the trust and left pretty poor (relatively speaking). I don't know if she had litigation funding but if she didn't, she would never have been able to pursue the case. But she won, and if she had gone through someone like Burford, they would have said "we'll take the case, and pay all legal fees, but if we win the legal fees get paid from the proceeds, we take 30% and you get the rest". So Bur would end up spending probably £5-10m on legal fees. They would receive back £30m profit. The client gets £60m. It is just a fantastic business model, works for everyone but only if you know what you are doing.
BUR disclose that in 2018 they had 1470 cases looking for funding, discussed 456 of them as potential investments, sent 168 to investment committee and ended up funding 87. The ideal that they fund indiscriminately isn't true. In the end, I feel this is a new asset class creating outsize returns that is global and uncorrelated to the markets. It may take some time for the correct way of valuing it to be determined by the market and there is scope for debate. But there is only so long that you can grow profits at such a rate before the market moves from a voting machine - which is clearly where it is at the moment - to a weighing machine.

[showme01] 09/8/2019 07:53

Finished with a 10 minutes auction. Expect the same on open. The MM will not have a clue how to work this. Will take some time to look at the buy and sell orders and I'm guessing there will not be too many of the later.

[nigelpm] 09/8/2019 07:53

An excellent response so far - a detailed response to @muddywatersre points, a very quick investor call set up and almost 2 hours of questions with very little time for them to prepare. If they initiate a large share buyback on top of the big director buying - strong sign.

[wardy333] 09/8/2019 07:51

Would not surprise me for M/W to suddenly fold.

[littlepuppi7] 09/8/2019 07:51

Mw will have to be very careful what they say now. I don't expect a public rebuttal as it could all just feed evidence in a court case and they already up to their necks. Stop digging and all that. Fca are probably already looking into this as well.

[stoxx67] 09/8/2019 07:50

could all the profit made on Burford by Muddy Waters Capital be treated as proceeds of crime ?

this happened on UK markets so is subject to UK law?

[winsome] 09/8/2019 07:49

Let's extend MW's flawed rational to top rated 5 star fund Finsbury Growth & Income run by Nick Train:

Four of Finsbury's biggest holdings Diageo, Unilever, LSE and Mondelez make up 40% of the fund and have been the big drivers of growth past few years. Look at the next biggest holdings - Burberry, Schroders, HL, Sage, Heineken and its a different story. Strip out the top four and performance of the fund has been lacklustre. I'm sure they've got a few losing investments in there too.

Should Trustnet exclude Finsbury's top 4 hitters and knock the fund down to 2 stars from 5? No one need answer that.

Just an example how anyone can interpret and twist things to their own liking

[metis20] 09/8/2019 07:47

From another board

'A source close to Burford said: “The company is certainly considering legal action against Muddy Waters on the ground that the tweet and following report created a false ­market. Such a claim could ­certainly be in the realm of hundreds of ­millions of pounds as innocent ­shareholders have been severely impacted by comments from Muddy Waters.'

[darius12] 09/8/2019 07:45

Burford litigation lawyers to sue Muddy Waters?



This looks good - and Burford certainly can easily launch one hell of a lawsuit with their army of specialised lawyers.

[littlepuppi7] 09/8/2019 07:43

They are in deep. They will be insolvent soon imo. Should we do a research note?

[gettingrichslow] 09/8/2019 07:39

Stoxx, I think you could be spot on there. I've just watched the Bloomberg video again and Block looks visibly anxious and uneasy as he tries to explain his position. His body language says the opposite of what's coming out of his mouth. It's as if he's thinking 'i'm in the brown stuff here'.

[edmondj] 09/8/2019 07:37

stoxx67,

I am not "overtly convinced to the downside" like you want to cast me but good luck with your holding.

[molatovkid] 09/8/2019 07:35

I do not believe that Muddy Waters are right when the rest of the investment community is wrong. Simple as that.

I do believe this has been a self serving, malicious slander campaign with malevolent intent and there should be consequences for them.

[stoxx67] 09/8/2019 07:34

edmondJ

do you truly believe that Burford, as lawyers, would release a statement to the market ridiculing the fallacies that MW posted knowing that there were skeletons in the cupboard?

i, for one, believe you are a journalist, not a person of multiple aliases, as proffered elsewhere, so i realise your interest, but you seem convinced , overtly to the downside, as i do to the upside, that is what makes a market i suppose.

i dont even think its a tussle anymore, Burford will nail MW to the rafters, it is obvious market manipulation with "front running" by several participants and the MW report totally baseless with incredulous inaccuracies and waffle, their inaccuracies and fallacies have been laid bare for all to see, they will pay a price, hopefully a company ending price.

i know which side i would rather sit, we now wait and see what happens.

[showme01] 09/8/2019 07:30

If Muddy Waters’ was the most sophisticated short attack I’ve ever seen, then this was the best rebuttal to a short attack that I’ve ever seen,” said fund manager James Clunie at Jupiter Asset
Management, which is a shareholder in Burford. He also praised the “calm” and “evidenced-based” tone of Burford’s rebuttal.

[tsmith2] 09/8/2019 07:29

But for good measure can you remind us of what those purchases were?