Brown (n) Share Discussion Threads

[darrin1471] 22/12/2022 16:39

Which courier companies delivered your orders?
A lot of ecommerce use several different courier companies giving the biggest percentage to the one that gives the best price and service. Many have been able to move RM orders to other couriers but this has put them under strain. I believe courier companies have prioritised big customers over smaller businesses and instore collections like Collect+.

[creditcrunchies] 22/12/2022 10:55

The other bit analysts don't factor in is the psychology of people's buying habits, the cost of living might be going up people are feeling the squeeze but their habits continue they make up the shortfall in disposable income with credit. We're still a way off from the cycle where we get a credit crunch when people cannot pay it back. That's my personal view anyways that typically comes when unemployment kicks in

[creditcrunchies] 22/12/2022 10:47

We'll find out with the trading update on the 12th January they might surprise because train strikes for several weeks now mean internet sales will be high and they're pretty much internet only. Not only that they've not been affected by Royal Mail strikes because they don't use them. Also their forward guidance was pretty negative from 716 million in 2022 they've said a loss of revenue to 672 in 2023 and 669 in 2024.

[camo1997] 22/12/2022 09:20

Thought i test their customer service chat too re my last parcel. Had about 14 people in the queue (shows their busy so that's good i guess), but cleared quickly and good customer service, so all good there.

[creditcrunchies] 22/12/2022 09:12

I've been doing the same I just select free delivery ordering in the middle of the night. It's weird you get an email a few hours later from the courier company saying they've got my order they're about to deliver it. I've been thinking wtf then it's delivered next day around 3pm like clockwork. It's like they have the courier company operating inside their warehouses

[creditcrunchies] 22/12/2022 09:00

Another thing I've noticed is they're running out of my size on a lot of stuff now, back in November they were fully stocked

[creditcrunchies] 22/12/2022 08:59

I've had similar experience through November all the way up to the other day. The last one was delayed due to weather which was communicated then it turned up two days later. I only did a test order to begin with but well impressed with the speed of the delivery and the quality. I've only been buying the brand label stuff though with cash not credit. Their site is addictive it's so slick everything fits perfectly. I just gotta pinch myself to stop ordering stuff lol

[camo1997] 22/12/2022 07:35

Ordered 5 items from them as they sell quite niche odd xmas stocking gifts. 4 came next day or within 2 days (did not even pay for fast delivery) 1 still waiting for, however should come today/tomorrow. So all in all, quite good. Better than some other parcels from else where

[creditcrunchies] 21/12/2022 22:10

One positive their group of companies do not use Royal Mail so have managed to trade at capacity throughout the run up to Xmas.

[jackson83] 20/12/2022 23:13

opportunity to short this as next year recession looms ... this is going collapse maybe see 10p then

[jackson83] 20/12/2022 19:40

wait for 20p top up

[alba_gu_brath] 18/12/2022 16:34

I couldn't hear it - what valuation did they come up with?

[camo1997] 18/12/2022 13:43

They need to sort the mic out, could hardly hear them

[dimknaf] 17/12/2022 00:17

Here is the presentation of BWNG, with people from London Value Investing Club trying to guess a reasonable valuation.

[creditcrunchies] 14/12/2022 20:25

price monitoring on a mere 64K of shares traded today so something weird going on behind the scenes possibly another large order being worked through. Obviously tripped something on the system.

[jackson83] 14/12/2022 19:52

looming court case RED FLAG

[jackson83] 14/12/2022 16:15

HIGH RISK as could go bust!..
will it survive a looming recession 2023/2024 ?

[jackson83] 09/12/2022 14:16

SHORTING opportunity now

[jackson83] 09/12/2022 14:14

probably be sold down to 20p after xmas

[up4itt] 08/12/2022 09:23

The trial is scheduled for June 2023. A negotiated settlement before that date is of course a possibility and would please the court; but human nature being what it is, any pre-trial settlement would most likely to be clinched under pressure of the ticking clock, close to the eve of the trial itself, all things being equal. But all things may not be equal, given the Mash factor, though the dynamics of that factor and how things would eventually play out are beyond my tiny mind to grasp.

[live ink] 08/12/2022 08:08

value hound,

Thank you for this resume. It is a nuisance that litigation can take so long to be resolved.

Simon Cawkwell

[value hound] 07/12/2022 18:55

Live Ink; With the finals, they said "Our accounting estimate [of £29.8m] is based upon the assumption that the parties reach a settlement within FY23, however if the matter progresses to trial any cashflows resulting from the claim and/or counterclaim may not arise until FY24." I thought this was tantamount to saying to Allianz that they'd settle for this kind of figure to draw a line under the dispute.

With the interims, they said "Should the matter proceed to trial, the eventual outcome is highly uncertain. The range of potential outcomes is very significant.... [but also ....] The likelihood of a Court finding wholly in favour of the Insurer, without taking into account the costs already borne by JDW, is considered remote. Accordingly, the maximum potential outflow is considered to be significantly less than the £66 million claimed by the Insurer."

Again - this stuff is negotiation in public perhaps?

If it was to be c.£30m, that would be equivalent to 6.5pps. Even massively discounting stock, assuming some debtors turn bad and booking absolutely nothing for fixed assets or any kind of multiple of earnings - and I still come out somewhere around £200m / >43p per share, but that would be an unfair valuation IMO as pre-pandemic eps were always around 20pps - so a quid seeems eminently reasonable, but isn't going to happen until settlement with Allianz - and, of course, we'll get a trading update including Christmas etc., in the new year.

[live ink] 07/12/2022 17:35

value hound,

How much might this dispute cost?

However, I think the general view must be that Lady Alliance would not have bet £170,000 if she had not had her card carefully marked.

Simon Cawkwell