Brown (n) Share Discussion Threads

[sidam] 17/1/2023 08:32

Many years ago I had a colleague who was a real chartist and one of the patterns he used to real effect was a rounded bottom which implies over time a substantial move upwards. When showing me, he said look at the pattern in a mirror and ask yourself would I sell this or buy it.

Recently I have seen this pattern followed by major moves. I think that pattern is showing here.

[dicktrade] 17/1/2023 08:26

I would be amazed if there is no news this week of the Alliances buying this back

[creditcrunchies] 17/1/2023 08:22

There aren't many shares in free float outside the institutions and the Alliance family. I make it around 12%

[ivancampo] 17/1/2023 08:18

More family buying, note this was also Friday, similar sized trades yesterday so expect another RNS shortly, got to be in play!

[creditcrunchies] 16/1/2023 23:54

Schroder is the largest institutional shareholder by a long way but they're reducing their allocation at the same time the Alliances are building up their shares. This looks like an MBO. I wonder what level they need to get in order to take full control. It looks like we're getting close to some kind of announcement. This is what happens when the market has priced these at 25p and you have a book value of 100p

[creditcrunchies] 16/1/2023 16:36

SP shooting up something's brewing

[creditcrunchies] 16/1/2023 16:18

Looks like they're buying it out themselves

[dicktrade] 16/1/2023 15:47

Yep
Lady Alliance,
now that's interesting

[ivancampo] 16/1/2023 15:33

Well I was wrong, but another family buy. Still in play.

[ivancampo] 13/1/2023 13:03

Someone picked up 2.1m yesterday. Money on it being Ashley directly or indirectly. Looks in play to me and this is the time to make moves.

[creditcrunchies] 12/1/2023 21:45

Blimey somebody bought big in the closing auction 1.25 million shares Off-book trades which triggered a monitoring extension

[davebowler] 12/1/2023 21:00

htTPs://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/evil-diaries-around-the-world-in-eighty-seconds/

[creditcrunchies] 12/1/2023 20:08

Over 5 million shares traded today looks like someone loaded up on that pullback

[creditcrunchies] 12/1/2023 12:14

Trading inline with future guidance is the new negative in today's market unfortunately

[outsizeclothes.com] 12/1/2023 12:07

I see nothing in this trading update that scares me. Nor, I suspect, the Alliances, should they wish to take this private at 50p-60p.

[creditcrunchies] 12/1/2023 07:38

I like the confidence on their cash and credit position it means they can easily absorb a huge one off payment of 45 million with plenty available going forwards

[creditcrunchies] 12/1/2023 07:34

I did notice the premium brands were selling well in N Brown you can usually tell by the average sizes running out of stock very quickly

[creditcrunchies] 12/1/2023 07:31

I've got MKS as well strong sales over Xmas, food reported it's highest ever recorded market share. Clothing and home outstanding performance with the highest market share in seven years

[masurenguy] 12/1/2023 07:11

Q3 TRADING UPDATE FOR THE 18 WEEKS ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2022

Solid trading in a tough environment with balance sheet strength maintained

Highlights

-- Q3 product revenue in line with Q2 trends and management expectations, reflecting a soft and highly promotional market

-- Outlook for FY23 Adjusted EBITDA(1) in line with market consensus(2)

-- Planning for 2023 UK discretionary consumer goods market conditions to be soft, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic pressures

-- As announced on 9 January 2023, long-standing legal dispute with Allianz settled

-- Strong balance sheet, with significant liquidity and positive unsecured net cash, which will be maintained post Allianz settlement

Strong balance sheet

At 31 December 2022 the Group had unsecured net cash of GBP82.9m(6) , which is in line with the prior year total of GBP83.4m (unsecured net cash of GBP33.5m and an additional GBP49.9m voluntarily undrawn on the securitisation facility). The Group also has access to a RCF of GBP100m and an overdraft of GBP12.5m, both fully undrawn, which combined with the unsecured net cash at 31 December 2022 resulted in period end total accessible liquidity of almost GBP200m. As announced on 9 January 2023, a payment of GBP49.5m is being processed relating to the settlement of a legal dispute with Allianz. After satisfying this, the Group will retain a strong unsecured net cash position of c.GBP30m, with both the RCF and overdraft facilities remaining undrawn.

FY23 outlook and guidance

The Group's Q3 trading performance has been in line with our expectations. With peak season behind us, we expect Q4(7) to be softer than Q3, in what are typically our quietest months of the year. Against this retail backdrop and assuming a continuation of the trends we have been seeing in Financial Services revenue and margin, we expect FY23 Adjusted EBITDA(1) to be in line with market consensus.

The Group maintains strong unsecured net cash and total accessible liquidity positions. At year end we expect net debt to be higher year-on-year after the cash outflow associated with the settlement with Allianz, with net debt well covered by the gross debtor book.

We expect the market for UK discretionary consumer goods to be soft in calendar year 2023, particularly in the first half. This, together with the difficult trading environment in FY23, means we will commence FY24 with lower active customers year-on-year. Against this backdrop we will continue to carefully monitor consumer credit conditions whilst maintaining our focus on self-help measures through tightly managing costs and margins, continuing to invest in and deliver strategic change.

[creditcrunchies] 11/1/2023 22:57

Looks like they're re-stocking new lines as they've been running low on stock as most sizes were unavailable after Christmas. Been disappointing to see that they didn't discount much in the new year sales. The best discounts were mid November.

[davebowler] 10/1/2023 09:18

hTTps://masterinvestor.co.uk/evil-diaries/evil-diaries-n-brown-is-in-the-clearm/?mc_cid=0a022f634a&mc_eid=31ad53697c

[creditcrunchies] 09/1/2023 22:14

Short interest on the major European indices are getting close to 90% I wonder if we get a bit of a short squeeze first

[outsizeclothes.com] 09/1/2023 15:33

Another positive imho - Now that the settlement has been made, it will give any possible bidder a true picture, and a clear runway, for a potential bid.
This would, of course, include the Alliances, who now know that the big unknown and previous uncertainty to taking this private has been removed.
Get Schroders in your camp at, let's say, 50p, and you've got an offer, at half value, with 65% acceptance already sewn up.
I've bought 50k shares in an ISA.