Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[warbaby43] 20/3/2023 16:53

Published this afternoon, with, not unexpectedly, no mention of Etinde:

[warbaby43] 20/3/2023 16:07

Perenco being coy on the details of this other than $1bn+ cost but production of just 700k tonnes pa much more relevant to potential Etinde output.

Inevitable question is, though, how many billion dollar projects can Perenco manage, even assuming that they haven't already pulled out of the New Age deal or got the SNH thumbs down.

[gark] 19/3/2023 10:45

I guess we will get an update end of the month. Doesn't look great.

[warbaby43] 18/3/2023 17:16

"Africa Intelligence" is published in Paris and appears to be largely a clickbait operation designed to tempt the unwary into signing up to its v expensive subscriptions. More importantly, based on massively inaccurate stuff it has published in the past about Etinde, what it puts out should, perhaps, not be taken too seriously.

As for Perenco, I've been wondering for a while whether they might have "parked" the Etinde JVP transaction if they are one of the bidders for Chevron's EG assets, which would also include the Yoyo Cameroon end of Yoyo/Yolanda, and were put on the market for c $1bn in February '22:



Certainly the Alen and Aseng assets are significant:





And while nowt much appears to be known about Yoyo/Yolanda where extensive explo/appraisal drilling would be required,those fields always appear in the media as the likely candidates, rather then Etinde, for cross border development:



Whether Perenco might be considered big enough to be serious bidders for the Chevron EG assets is a different matter but on the face of it, they might:

"The company produces 485,000 boepd through its drilling, development and operations, thanks to its onshore and offshore presence in 15 countries."

But there again we know from their porkie pie Cameroon production claims of 51,000 of oil per day along with 24 cubic metres of gas, that owt they claim should be taken with a very large pinch of salt.

Any information on Perenco gratefully received.

[ctc1] 17/3/2023 13:02

SNH have always been incredibly tardy in authorising developments. Biya even uses it as his personal piggy bank, despite World Bank threats to funding their corrupt system.

[ham74] 17/3/2023 08:44

Did anyone access the full text behind the paywall? Any insight on reasons for delays, and probable conclusion date?

[gark] 17/3/2023 08:23

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2023/03/07/perenco-stuck-waiting-on-new-age-s-share-of-etinde,109920908-art

[warbaby43] 07/3/2023 17:31

The "Upstream" piece from buy_more is based on and quotes extensively from Marathon's Q4/Full Year Results investor call and especially from CEO etc Lee Tillman. Here's the link:



For EG, the overall context is that what was seen as their ugly duckling asset has now become something of a golden goose with a golden future for which infill gas is sought.

The relevant mentions come at minutes 7.00, 18.25, 20.55 with relevant Q&As at 27.40 and 48.25

On the cross border Cameroon gas assets Mr Tillman is blunt:

"“Quite frankly, they will not get monetised unless they flow through EG LNG, these molecules have to find a home or they’re going to be stranded gas.”

To which the riposte might be "And so say all of us, but just try telling that to SNH!"

In particular, Mr Tillman alludes to cross border "undiscovered" assets- ie the Yoyo/Yolanda fields which are only c 20-30km from Chevron's large Alen field where they will be able to piggy back to Punta Europa on its 70km 24" 950 cfd pipeline.


The "Upstream" journalist does, however, posit that Etinde too could be a candidate for tieback to the EG infrastructure

[buy_more] 28/2/2023 09:54

If blvn goes to 120 i would be happy to subscribe for a lifetime ;-)))

[ham74] 28/2/2023 09:45

You could take an introductory 4 weeeks for USD 4, to read that article in upsteam online. Just be sure to cancel before it goes up to USD 120 per month!

[buy_more] 28/2/2023 08:58

This sounds interesting. Although I can't read the whole text as I'm not a subscriber I guess same applies to Etinde

[ham74] 11/2/2023 11:56

So SNH is also a kind of sovereign wealth fund, but more for short term than long term uses! It still seems inconceivable that Etinde has lain dormant and undeveloped for so many years.

[warbaby43] 11/2/2023 11:05

Why O&G revenue matters in Cameroon and to whom it matters:



Paul Biya is 88 and Adolphe Moudiki, his long term henchman, is 83.

Taking the links in the piece is also instructive.

[buy_more] 06/2/2023 11:38

Hi folks, it's been a while. Hope everyone has had a good 2023 so far. In my opinion we have 25% share of a world class field with a production horizon of 20+ years. I still believe in the valuation of our asset as per my post no 18880 as nothing really changed since then except that we are running out of cash somewhen this year. The price for natural gas dropped again to the levels of 2019. In case of a sale of our share +/- 40p is still a realistic price imo. But to me it would be more interesting to see a calculation if we would participate in the production and pay out dividends every year.

[dealy] 03/2/2023 10:14

micro peanuts trades. 500k shares is only 7k at the mid price

[ham74] 03/2/2023 09:51

The quoted bid keeps slipping, but the offer and prices paid do not go down much, so basically the bid offer spread is widening. Why is this?

[gark] 03/2/2023 09:48

I agree, shame is they have an asset that is worth something but can't seem to get anywhere with it.

[dealy] 03/2/2023 09:22

company has a Dragon's Den valuation which is usually associated with companies that have nothing except an idea

[gark] 03/2/2023 09:16

Looks like we are seeing a slow death here. Depressing.

[nufckk] 24/1/2023 16:29

The thing about Eli (the Oracle of Oz) getting the boot is his termination pay off of a years salary. Unless of course they can prove Gross Misconduct which so far as I know doesn't include complete incompetence.
So there he sits, hanging onto his grossly overpaid position while everyone else (shareholders, employees) barring the equally overpaid non exec suffer from his complete lack of foresight.
They really do inhabit a different world to normal human beings, who had they performed as abysmally as him would have crawled under a rock in shame a long time ago

[warbaby43] 24/1/2023 15:02

Yeah, someone has been selling down today and over recent weeks at 100k per day - Chahin selling out prior to his departure?

No fundraising should be necessary in H1 and in any event hopefully it will be delayed until the constitution of the new JVP has been formalized.

In that regard and going back to the Offshore Technology figures and forecasts at 19417 then if they are correct (and their format and detail would appear to indicate that they are authoritative) then come 2025 the RDR fields will be down to producing just 7.52 bpd for Perenco and 20.61 bpd for SNH.

Similarly at Sanaga South following its nosedive in 2026 Perenco will be down to 3.94 boepd and SNH to 3.06 boepd.

As always, corrections to my calculations are most welcome but if anywhere near right then they indicate just how important an Etinde contribution stands to be for those parties.

[ham74] 24/1/2023 13:29

Do you expect any fundraising news before interim results due in March? There seems to be a steady stream of sellers around 1.4 to 1.5p at the moment.

[warbaby43] 18/1/2023 12:57

gark is the real old timer here and a visit to the LSE board tells you that some on there date back to when the share price was expressed in pounds and not pence.

Hard to be overly amazed when the delay is down to a combination of the O&G industry and a W African government with it being a toss up which of them habitually moves at the more sub glacial a pace

With it now being over four years since end of drilling all v frustrating, but first year plus was lost by the ridiculous time it took for the resource update audit from D&M. Then there was the apparently blind alley of the Limbe plant and the FEED process for that and the JVP apparently unable to find alignment on development until, seemingly, NA caved and the Bioko option seriously opened up with SNH consent for that to be investigated, only then for NA to chuck the towel in and exit at presumably a willing sellers price.

That there will be more wrangling and delay seems inevitable given the nature of the beasts involved but O&G revenue does have a critical role not just in the overall Cameroon economy but in financing the office of the President and its praetorian guard and, as we have seen from the Offshore Energy links, without new supply that revenue, while already declining, is going to nosedive around 2026.