Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[warbaby43] 16/12/2021 14:57

As I recall Sonara was mentioned in the recent AR

[buy_more] 13/12/2021 20:01

thanks warbaby. hopefully arden is working on that numbers already :)

The broker research reports should be updated when and if Equatorial Guinea becomes the official choice. Arden publish reports available through Research Tree, which include recommendations and price targets.

[gark] 13/12/2021 17:55

Thanks for posting. This is pretty binary so at the moment feels like black or red. If it does come off there is plenty of value there. Eli sounds pretty confident, which is surprising as typically they are very cautious in the updates they give. 2022 could be the year, fingers crossed.

[warbaby43] 13/12/2021 16:48

With a hat tip to Hamz74 who posted this on LSE last Thursday:

"This year it was only possible to attend the AGM physically, and I did. Eli Chahin, Nicholas Brough FD, other Bowleven staff, a share registrar, and the two brokers – Arden and Shore Capital – were at the 2021 meeting, at the News Building in London. Thanks to one of the AGM resolutions. next year it will be possible to join the AGM either virtually or physically.

Domestic power generation projects in Cameroon are underway, asking for tenders with several Chinese parties interested, but it takes years to develop them, so exports via Equatorial Guinea are a faster option.

The hope is to get FID in 2022 and the government seems keen. Bowleven do 6 hour zoom calls attended by at least 10 people from SNH in Cameroon and several from New Age tuning in from different locations, as well as Lukoil. It can take a few meetings to agree on things. Most of the discussions continue remotely even if there are travel restrictions.

The main resource, condensate is very light oil, which is reasonably correlated to brent crude oil prices. The last valuation model was based on oil at 65 dollars. It is now higher than that, though part of the increase would be taken up by taxes. The fiscal regime allows for substantial cost recovery and then taxes the profitable revenues.

The valuation model, which is validated by the auditors EY, could be updated in 2022 if the Equatorial Guinea option materialises. Broker research does not currently include the Equatorial Guinea option, which should have lower costs than the previous plan that involved building a processing plant to split up the outputs, and reinjecting methane. The broker research reports should be updated when and if Equatorial Guinea becomes the official choice. Arden publish reports available through Research Tree, which include recommendations and price targets. Shore Capital is the house broker, but they do not publish recommendations or share price targets on Bowleven or any other house stocks as a matter of policy.

Eli Chahin’s share incentives determined back in 2017 kick in at a range of prices between 45p and 80p. He is sticking around - and so are the institutional shareholders, who have not sold"

[gark] 11/12/2021 14:31

Chevron active in EG and Etinde gets a mention.https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/ep-africa/371421/chevron-eg-09-equatorial-guinea/Hopefully another small step in the right direction.

[gark] 08/12/2021 17:26

A number of uncertainties but if this comes together, share price is worth 30p with upside to 50p+.Lukoil seem to be stepping up a lot more so are clearly keen to move this forward, which stacks up well and should motivate Cameroon I would hope.

[jordaggy] 08/12/2021 16:13

I think this is a dead duck walking!

[buy_more] 08/12/2021 16:09

not sure anymore if coc is still happy with their investment tbh. this is page 10 from todays agm presentation.


JV partners to determine Etinde development priority in December 2021
• FY 2022 work plan and budget will be drawn up on the basis of the
development priority and submitted to SNH for approval at OCM meeting
(likely January 2022)
• Q1 to Q2 2022 - Updated mini-FEED process to finalise facility design
• Q1 to Q2 2022 - Preparation of sub-surface development plan
• Q1 to Q4 2022 - Inter-governmental agreement negotiations if EG option
chosen and approved
• Commercial negotiations
• Cameroon domestic gas sales
• Facility development tendering and/or Commercial negotiations with
Marathon and EG regarding wet gas processing and LNG processing
• Cameroon gas supply pipeline option
• Commercial financing (Bowleven and New Age)

• FID in late 2022

[gark] 08/12/2021 13:08

All resolutions passed. Anyone go? Any form of update or view on this?

[buy_more] 08/12/2021 09:37

does anyone know anything about todays agm?

[gark] 24/11/2021 20:54

Quote from that:"Deals like Yoyo Yolanda need to go ahead with Chevron, Etinde projects in Cameroon need to be fast tracked with New Age and Lukoil consortium."Liking that.

[buy_more] 18/11/2021 20:05

it's only political now. but there seems to be progress and if EG is accepted by SNH then blvn will be worth a lot more then 150M as per my view. that would be an absolute bargain for marathon or others in EG

[dealy] 18/11/2021 17:09

and if this field doesn't fly then you can assume that no field is viable

[dealy] 18/11/2021 16:37

Didn't realise it was so binary. The asset doesn't seem to have been downgraded in terms of available oil and gas

[spartyl] 18/11/2021 14:19

The asset is worth ZERO if it doesn't get a positive FID in Q1 2022

[dealy] 17/11/2021 12:45

Shell (Samuel) managed to merge with Royal Dutch with a similar asset in 1936. Anything is possible! But clearly the asset is worth more than the current zero that is priced in

[ham74] 17/11/2021 11:16

Value could then be more than USD 150 million base case? How high could it go?

[gark] 16/11/2021 15:33

Reassessment of IE fields could lead to an upgrade and if EG used will increase value.

[kbrook] 16/11/2021 08:50

Anybody with more expertise than me tell me if there is anything encouraging in this report?https://www.bowleven.com/system/files/press/bowleven-annual-report-2021.pdf

[dealy] 14/11/2021 21:57

OK, thanks. So probably they also want this project to get going

[gark] 14/11/2021 18:02

They are not big but got money from sale of Congo and backed by Hopu and Kerogen (China sovereign).

[dealy] 14/11/2021 17:45

anybody know how big New Age are? Do they have deep pockets or similar developments?

[gark] 14/11/2021 15:27

We will get there just how long it will take. Very good that Lukoil is pushing hard to get it over the line!

[dealy] 13/11/2021 10:55

surely after all of the efforts and investments by 3 companies as well as the local government there is a way for the field to start producing? Else all of these efforts would have been in vain.