Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[gark] 18/1/2023 09:57

Unless Perenco really bought it on the cheap, you would expect that they are motivated to get this going. Who knows?

[ham74] 17/1/2023 16:40

The endless delays seem mind boggling to me. As one of the old timers, are you amazed that this has dragged on for so many years without monetisation? Or by this stage, do you expect it could easily drag on for many more years, so long as some extra equity capital is raised? Is there anything really key - besides running out of cash - that makes you think this is approachig end game?

[warbaby43] 16/1/2023 12:38

Thanks for that gark but difficult to envisage those DRC Perenco fields ever feeding Malabo with the distance being c 1100 km (c700 miles in real money) given the likely cost of a wet gas pipeline of that length.

However, given that Perenco are also in Congo and Gabon as well as DRC and Cameroon, it would seem to be pretty much a given that they have conversations with the EG parties. Also worth noting, perhaps, is that Chevron apparently have their EG and Cameroon assets up for sale via the Jefferies bank with the media attaching a billion dollar price tag. Going to be interesting to see who buys and would such a price tag be beyond Perenco's reach?

On Etinde production to Bioko, buy_more put a link up to this back in August but nowt more has appeared in that publication nor did the report appear in "Business in Cameroon:



Meanwhile, on LNG it now seems that there's another "F" on the block besides Floating LNG and it would seem that one of the projects is offshore Congo with ENI, though on the ENI website New Fortress and FAST LNG are not specifically mentioned.





However, the project is mentioned in "Offshore Engineer" and it's also worth noting that the standard unit is 1.4 mtpa which is far more likely to be relevant should the obvious Bioko route be binned for what ever reason:



"In February, New Fortress and a unit of Italian energy company Eni SpA agreed to deploy New Fortress' Fast LNG technology off the coast of the Republic of the Congo to produce up to 1.4 MTPA of LNG for a period of 20 years, with production expected to start in the second quarter of 2023."

Herewith a NFE's YouTube Fast LNG video:



Perhaps worth mentioning too is that New Fortress did buy a slab of assets from Golar including an interest in the Episeyo.

[nufckk] 14/1/2023 16:23

Sorry Hamz the Saudi stuff was football banter, just passing time as the Cameroon admin grind their way towards the takeover decision.
Interesting find Gark,I can't say I've seen anything in the press linking Perenco and Bioko before

[gark] 14/1/2023 14:28

https://www.upstreamonline.com/politics/plans-afoot-to-commercialise-dr-congo-gas/2-1-1363708This is interesting as implies that Perenco is building relationship with EG and potentially looking to Bioko for both Congo and Cameroon projects. Be brilliant if that is the case.

[ham74] 12/1/2023 17:32

Is this Saudi ownership relevant to Bowleven?

[warbaby43] 12/1/2023 13:08

"And so to the Saudi ownership. I know, I know, we should know our place"

'Pon my soul KK, what a sensitive bunch you lot are and always so quick to claim "the world's agin us" victimhood - just like your Scouse soul brothers in fact! As it happens, I didn't, and don't, have any particular problem with the Saudis given foreign ownership appears here to stay. It was rather the London mob, sports journalists to the fore, who were so sniffy and that's because for them it's no problem with Iran but Saudi bad, very,very bad and that's been the case for some years now. However, unlikely that the lads at the Gallowgate End give a toss what woke leftie London scribblers think and nor should they.

[stpalm] 12/1/2023 00:58

Someone turn the lights off on your way out. GLA

[gark] 11/1/2023 19:48

I am with you. Own too much and this looks doomed. Shame.

[kbrook] 11/1/2023 18:49

When was the last time any of the board bought any? Seems to tell a tale, I've been in here from when it was over £1 I'm resigned to losing all now, in fact it would be a blessed relief to stop the pain. I'm in for the long haul whatever the outcome, the 45p that whatever his name is needs to achieve to get his bonus is looking fairly unlikely!!.Suppose he's happy with his salary for all the graft he does daily!

[dealy] 11/1/2023 13:35

Market cap now just 5m GBP. Surely an individual wealthy investor would be willing to pay more than that for the assets, tax losses, opportunities etc. Never mind what an oil & gas company might be willing to pay

[nufckk] 10/1/2023 13:29

Thanks for the reply Warbaby. I have experience of the UK Monopolies Commission. I was a site manager of a northern manufacturing group taken over by a company from darn sarf. We were left in a state of near paralysis for 7 months before it was eventually approved. Eli has stated he expects it to be sorted this quarter.
I am still totally cheesed off that we are going to be diluted but I believe current shareholders will be offered the chance to buy. Small consolation bearing in mind I already have more in this than I'd like.
Anyway, what facts can we be reasonably confident of:
Two of the three owners of the asset (62.5%) prefer the Bioko option.
We, and I include Eli in this, do not know what Perenco will come up with.
Production at Episeyo drops off a cliff in 2 to 3 years time leaving a hole in Perenco's balance sheet and Cameroon's tax intake that I feel certain they will both be keen to fill as quickly as possible.

Conjecture. Suppose Perenco come up with a different idea. How do things work between the JVP. Does the Operator's wishes carry the day? Do they vote on it if they don't agree or does it just become a stalemate. If it is a stalemate is the solution Perenco buying Bowleven?
I notice the office in London has gone and staff have been put on temporary contracts. Ok, it saves a surprising amount of money but it would also leave less to sort out if we were sold.
One of Etinde's stumbling blocks appears to be the amount of gas we need to supply to Cameroon for non existant power generation. Could Perenco get around this by offering to supply from one of their declining fields?
I'm sure Perenco with their lengthy involvement will know how to "incentivise" the correct people in order to oil the wheels of progress.
Anyway, just my ramblings, I'm more than happy to listen to others thoughts, especially on how the JVP reach a decision in the event of a disagreement

[warbaby43] 09/1/2023 15:12

"I was merely referring to Bows continual plugging of Etindes value in reports and during conference calls."

Yeah, you're right KK and everything should be put into the perspective that BLVN do have as their asset c 50m boe that's within c 30km of the major processing and LNG infrastructure on Bioko and the cause of so much of the frustration has been the unwillingness of New Age and, probably SNH, to take that obvious route to development. We must now hope, I guess, that Perenco come onboard with BLVN's and Lukoil's preferred Bioko option and that SNH are prepared to go along given their need for a significant new source of O&G revenue come 2026.

Meanwhile, just think of how much you could have won if you'd stuck a few bob on my lot having to look up the table at your lot at this point of the season

[nufckk] 08/1/2023 15:49

Ooooof...thanks for that Warbaby.It goes someway to explaining my absence from posting.
I did state I knew little of these things and may well be over optimistic, I wasn't attempting to influence anyone, I was merely referring to Bows continual plugging of Etindes value in reports and during conference calls. I do sincerely hope your pessimstic view does not prove correct especially given your recent purchase prior to the takeover.
Regarding your comment on SNH's delays, I couldn't agree more though I thought the deal was referred to the Cameroon version of our Monopolies Commission which I'd assume was separate to SNH.
Regarding the football. I certainly never suggested the toon would win the league this year or the Champions League next. Indeed I know of no fellow toon supporters who would, or do so either. After years of stagnation we are enjoying a hopefully not too brief moment in the sun. We certainly seem to have got under the skins of the self annointed/righteous "big six" who would have quite happily abandoned the rest of us in order to enrich themselves via the European superleague.

[warbaby43] 08/1/2023 14:13

Our posts crossed Toon and such a heady level of optimism:

"would be disappointed if it was less than the £150 mil that Bowleven has continually highlighted"

Virtually cashless and a long way still from FID that £150 mil belongs in the same category of dreams as NUFC winning the PL this season and the European Cup next.

[warbaby43] 08/1/2023 13:56

Glad to see you're still alive Toon and surprised you haven't been out strutting your stuff in the last few months before the bubble bursts, but perhaps that absence has been due more to embarrassment than owt else.

Interesting what you say about New Age indebtedness as being their driving factor while I was assuming that, in part at least, it was down to their not being able to get their way over the Limbe processing plant coupled with gas re-injection which would have meant a large hardware order back to China. There certainly appeared to be a reluctance to go the EG route with Lukoil making the running there and doing the presentation to SNH.

Even by SNH's standards 7 months + is a nonsense prompting a distinct feeling that there's summat else involved which I suspect is corporate and probably involving COC. Indeed, with market cap languishing at £7m with what COC received from that Feb 2019 dividend, they could near enough bid double the current share price to attempt to take BLVN private and then get more than that back at FID. I suspect, though, that, given Chahin's background it's more likely to be some fancy financial restructuring involving COC with significant dilution for ordinary holders.

[nufckk] 08/1/2023 13:40

Gark-in truth I have no idea but would be disappointed if it was less than the £150 mil that Bowleven has continually highlighted. Its not just the value of the asset, Bowleven must have built up hefty tax concessions against the amount invested (I'm no expert on this mind).Whilst we aren't in the strongest position we do have the option of dilution rather than having to sell.
Hamz-as far as I know, the info isn't on the internet

[gark] 07/1/2023 17:21

What price do you think they get for a sale? Current share price doesn't look too optimistic.

[nufckk] 07/1/2023 15:30

Warbaby - I have no real theory but can't help but feel that we are going to be sold. Perenco are, apparently, very efficient operators and are always keen to maximise value so I'm bemused everything is on hold while the Cameroon government ponderously approve the purchase. I have heard, and I don't know if this will be news to anybody else, that New Age sold their Etinde share to pay off debt. I'd assumed they were awash with money after selling Brazzaville to Lukoil but apparently that was forced upon them to pay off debt as well.

[warbaby43] 06/1/2023 11:11

Seven months on now since the announcement of operator change and getting to be a distinct feeling that there's summat else in addition to or apart from that going on.

I wonder what - place your bets now!

[warbaby43] 12/12/2022 15:00

Many thanks for those gas stats and the surge around 2017 would be coinciding with the Golar Episeyo FLNG coming on stream and the Sanaga gas field ramping up to feed it.

The whole issue of Cameroon gas production is something of a mystery with the Perenco website ( claiming their production to be 24 cubic metres per day which equates to 847 mmcfd "Perenco is now the largest operator in Cameroon in term of production, with an operating area in the Rio del Rey and Douala basins, with oil and gas production of 85,000 boepd (51,000 barrels per day and 24 million m3 of gas per day)."

But where on earth does that sort of 847mmcfd figure come from? We know that Sanaga feeds the Episeyo with c 200mmcfd and while that might be being ramped up, it sure ain't going to exceed 300mmcfd and we also know that Sanaga supplies the Kribi power plant but that's no more than only around 20mmcfd so where is the other c 500mmcfd coming from? The RDR fields we know to be oil plus condensate and while there is flaring, there isn't any gas production infrastructure there. Can anyone shed any light on this with my only guess being that RDR condensate production is being counted as liquid gas and a conversion factor applied.

With regard to an Etinde/RDR FPSO or even FLNG, that would appear to require either major RDR well re-working and/or new drilling with either way that taking us to nearer 2030 than 2022 and total combined BLVN/Perenco well development expenditure of several hundred million dollars.

All in all Bioko makes a lot more sense to afford time and financing for more Etinde/Sanaga/RDR drilling to provide sufficient feed gas for FLNG or even onshore LNG. However, what appears to make most sense is rarely what happens in the world of O&G.

Meanwhile, what price SNH chucking in summat like this for a curve ball:

[ham74] 11/12/2022 00:34

These links show that other firms active in Cameroon include Sinopec subsidiary Addax Petroleum Cameroon, China Petrochemicals, and privately owned Creative Energy, of Canada. I wonder if any of these three might have their eyes on something in Etinde at some stage?